1120 N Kinsley Ave · Winslow, AZ 86047

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1970 8,276 sqft lot Est $205k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully remodeled 2 bedroom one bath home on nice lot in the heart of Winslow. Priced to sell.

Key facts

• New stove
• Ceiling fans
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• DETACHED GARAGE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW STOVE
• NEW MICROWAVE
• CEILING FANS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information available

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Year built (per county)
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Shed(s); Level lot; Paved, public-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: One-level layout
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with forced air; Central air conditioning; Other heating type
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Gas range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-724/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (7.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.9% in Winslow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#301 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Winslow Unified District (4387) (town): math 22% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #169 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,244 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.47%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,728
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1011 N Apache Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-3%)	0mo	$319,000	$253	78
901 N Warren Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,389 (+6%)	1mo	$217,500	$157	74
219 W Elm St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,345 (+3%)	4mo	$83,500	$62	72
305 W Mahoney St	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,180 (-10%)	7mo	$220,000	$186	69
401 N Kinsley Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,298 (-0%)	2mo	$190,000	$146	68
700 W Maple St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,333 (+2%)	2mo	$124,000	$93	61
113 E Gilmore St	0.10mi	3/1.8 (+1)	1,488 (+14%)	8mo	$255,000	$171	57
222 E Aspinwall St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,381 (+6%)	4mo	$132,000	$96	56
722 N Warren Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,114 (-15%)	4mo	$218,000	$196	55
216 W 3rd St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,230 (-6%)	7mo	$38,000	$31	52
1009 Bales Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,263 (-3%)	9mo	$245,000	$194	48
620 W Elm St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,479 (+13%)	6mo	$190,000	$128	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-27,931
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-28,451
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86047

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $139,244

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-18	+0% $-60	+5% $-103	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-187	-5% $-124	+0% $-60	+5% $3	+10% $66
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-22	base $-60	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
817 W Gilmore St Unit B Winslow, AZ	3.0	1.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	44d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 489-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $989 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$399/yr (+$33/mo · 67.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$5,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$741
• After-tax cash flow: $17/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winslow Unified District (4387)
• NCES district ID: 0409460
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,693
• Composite: 19.73/100
• National rank: #8713
• State rank: #169 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Winslow

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #301
• US rank: #24983

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winslow, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 13,913

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.91)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 56% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 17% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.38%
• Current HPI: 416.7534
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+78.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $149,900 NAZMLS
• 2023-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-11 Sold (MLS) $220,000 WMMLS
• 2023-04-05 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2023-03-12 Price Changed $219,900 WMMLS
• 2022-11-03 Listed $224,900 WMMLS
• 2017-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $86,500 Public Records
• 2017-07-07 Sold (MLS) $86,500 NAZMLS
• 2017-04-30 Listed $83,900 NAZMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $591 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.