819 Independence Trl · Josephine, TX 75173

$238,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,589 sqft · Land · 73 Days on market

Built 2026 9,000 sqft lot $150/sqft · 9% below area Est $260k · 9% under $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

Key facts

• 9,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $210,580 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.46%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,378
• List price: $238,000
• Delta: -8.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $141,800
• Equity at exit: $214,409

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $407,792
• Equity at exit: $462,382

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $995/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,862

Max offer price $238,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $260	+0% $192	+5% $125	+10% $58
Rent	-10% $26	-5% $109	+0% $192	+5% $276	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $253	base $192	+0.5pp $131	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	11d	1	0.62mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	6d	1	0.83mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	15d	1	0.83mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	44d	1	0.86mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	25d	1	1.01mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	1d	1	1.11mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	44d	1	1.16mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	7d	1	1.18mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	1d	1	1.19mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	25d	1	1.23mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	6d	1	1.24mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	2d	1	1.27mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	5d	1	1.28mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	7d	1	1.29mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	24d	1	1.32mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	44d	1	1.42mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	13d	1	1.43mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	1d	1	1.44mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $238,000 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

16. 2026-05-11
    price $238,000 839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    MLS# 21230569 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this newly constructed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family residence in Liberty Ranch, boasting 1,589 square feet of modern living space. Completed in 2026, this home features three spacious primary bedrooms, ideal for versatile living arrangements or guest accommodations. Enjoy the convenience of a well-designed layout with an inviting dining area and a comfortable living space. The home is equipped with central heating and cooling systems, ensuring year-round comfort. The property includes a 2-car garage, providing ample space for vehicles and storage. Located within the esteemed Community ISD, children will attend Nesmith Elementary, Community Middle, and Community High School. This stunning residence offers contemporary features in a vibrant community setting.

17. 2026-05-06
    price $239,000 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

18. 2026-05-06
    price $259,500 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

19. 2026-05-06
    price $239,000 839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

20. 2026-05-06
    price $239,000 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

21. 2026-04-21
    price $259,500 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

22. 2026-04-20
    price $259,500 839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    MLS# 21230569 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this newly constructed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family residence in Liberty Ranch, boasting 1,589 square feet of modern living space. Completed in 2026, this home features three spacious primary bedrooms, ideal for versatile living arrangements or guest accommodations. Enjoy the convenience of a well-designed layout with an inviting dining area and a comfortable living space. The home is equipped with central heating and cooling systems, ensuring year-round comfort. The property includes a 2-car garage, providing ample space for vehicles and storage. Located within the esteemed Community ISD, children will attend Nesmith Elementary, Community Middle, and Community High School. This stunning residence offers contemporary features in a vibrant community setting.

23. 2026-04-09
    price $265,490 839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

24. 2026-04-09
    price $265,490 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

25. 2026-04-07
    price $263,490 839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    MLS# 21230569 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this newly constructed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family residence in Liberty Ranch, boasting 1,589 square feet of modern living space. Completed in 2026, this home features three spacious primary bedrooms, ideal for versatile living arrangements or guest accommodations. Enjoy the convenience of a well-designed layout with an inviting dining area and a comfortable living space. The home is equipped with central heating and cooling systems, ensuring year-round comfort. The property includes a 2-car garage, providing ample space for vehicles and storage. Located within the esteemed Community ISD, children will attend Nesmith Elementary, Community Middle, and Community High School. This stunning residence offers contemporary features in a vibrant community setting.

26. 2026-04-06
    listed $265,490 Active 839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    MLS# 21230569 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this newly constructed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family residence in Liberty Ranch, boasting 1,589 square feet of modern living space. Completed in 2026, this home features three spacious primary bedrooms, ideal for versatile living arrangements or guest accommodations. Enjoy the convenience of a well-designed layout with an inviting dining area and a comfortable living space. The home is equipped with central heating and cooling systems, ensuring year-round comfort. The property includes a 2-car garage, providing ample space for vehicles and storage. Located within the esteemed Community ISD, children will attend Nesmith Elementary, Community Middle, and Community High School. This stunning residence offers contemporary features in a vibrant community setting.

27. 2026-03-06
    listed $263,490 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Step into the foyer, where two bedrooms with a shared bath are located at the front of the home. As you continue down the hallway, you'll pass the laundry room and access to the two-car garage before entering the open-concept kitchen, family room, and dining area. A covered patio sits just off the dining space, and tucked away on the opposite side of the family room is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a primary bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,360/yr (+$280/mo · 337.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$995
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$1,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$409
• After-tax cash flow: $2,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $238,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $238,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $239,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $259,500 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $239,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $259,500 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $259,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $265,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $265,490 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $263,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $265,490 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $263,490 Zillow

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $995 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.