406 S Maple · Lusk, WY 82225

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1939 8,276 sqft lot Est $161k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home, well maintained and move-in ready. Kitchen and bathroom were updated in 2016. Kitchen has new cabinets, counter tops and appliances. Bathroom was completely redone with tile, new tub, toilet and vanity. Home has a newer roof and metal siding. Wonderful location, just across the street from Lusk Elementary School. This home will qualify for WCDA or FHA financing! Call Rhonda at 307-216-0369 to view.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Brand new fridge
• Ranch style home

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• ROOF REPLACED
• FRONT WINDOWS REPLACED
• NEW FURNACE
• BRAND NEW FRIDGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single Family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Range / Oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dryer; Refrigerator; Microwave; Range / Oven; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#90 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Niobrara County School District #1 (rural): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #38 of 41 in WY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Niobrara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Niobrara County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,644 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,664
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 W Daley St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (+3%)	13mo	$165,000	$151	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $19,762
• Equity at exit: $53,508

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $62,613
• Equity at exit: $82,462

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82225

• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $425/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $898

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $120	+0% $86	+5% $52	+10% $19
Rent	-10% $7	-5% $46	+0% $86	+5% $126	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $116	base $86	+0.5pp $55	+1.0pp $24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-03
    listed $119,000 Active
20. 2025-09-23
    listed $125,000 Active
21. 2019-11-07
    soldstatus 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Great starter home, well maintained and move-in ready. Kitchen and bathroom were updated in 2016. Kitchen has new cabinets, counter tops and appliances. Bathroom was completely redone with tile, new tub, toilet and vanity. Home has a newer roof and metal siding. Wonderful location, just across the street from Lusk Elementary School. This home will qualify for WCDA or FHA financing! Call Rhonda at 307-216-0369 to view.

22. 2019-09-09
    listed $84,900 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Great starter home, well maintained and move-in ready. Kitchen and bathroom were updated in 2016. Kitchen has new cabinets, counter tops and appliances. Bathroom was completely redone with tile, new tub, toilet and vanity. Home has a newer roof and metal siding. Wonderful location, just across the street from Lusk Elementary School. This home will qualify for WCDA or FHA financing! Call Rhonda at 307-216-0369 to view.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $425 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $726 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$301/yr (+$25/mo · 70.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$425
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$966
• − Management: −$966
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$1,003
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$241
• After-tax cash flow: $1,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niobrara County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5604230
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,206
• Composite: 31.92/100
• National rank: #5852
• State rank: #38 of 41 in WY

Livability — Lusk

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #14210

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lusk, WY
• Population (ZIP): 1,746

Population outlook (Niobrara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664 people
• By 2030: 2,776 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 3,035 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 3,464 · +30.0%
• By 2075: 4,845 · +81.9%
• By 2100: 5,901 · +121.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 3% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niobrara

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+81.0) · D 9.1% · R 90.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -59.8pp · 2024: -81.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+81.0 2020: R+73.6 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+64.8 2008: R+59.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+40.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — WMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $119,000 WMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $125,000 WMLS
• 2019-11-07 Sold (MLS) — WMLS
• 2019-09-09 Listed $84,900 WMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $425 · -22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.