360 Aaron Ave · West Livingston, TX 77351

$139,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · Land · 91 Days on market

Built 2021 0.34 ac lot $134/sqft · 78% above area $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**Home comes furnished***Nestled in Nugent's Cove 2, this 2021 home is a fully furnished retreat. Leave your stress in Houston. Situated on 0.3444 acres, this 4/2 subdivision offers fishing pier. The primary bedroom is separated from the other three bedrooms, offering privacy. Enjoy the peaceful outdoor spaces surrounded by trees, perfect for relaxation. Also use two sheds for storage. Drop your water toys at Blanchard Public Boat Ramp. Livingston provides excellent fishing opportunities, while nearby amenities include restaurants, bowling at Triple J Lanes, and entertainment at Naskila Casino. Don't miss the stunning sunsets at Lake Livingston - this property is a perfect getaway for nature lovers. Blanchard boat ramp just minutes down FM 3277 go left.

Key facts

• Lake livingston
• Outdoor spaces
• Two sheds

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACES
• TWO SHEDS
• BLANCHARD PUBLIC BOAT RAMP
• LAKE LIVINGSTON

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.5% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.37%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,163
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 77.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,040
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $39,720
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $322/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,046

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-13
    price $139,000 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    **Home comes furnished***Nestled in Nugent's Cove 2, this 2021 home is a fully furnished retreat. Leave your stress in Houston. Situated on 0.3444 acres, this 4/2 subdivision offers fishing pier. The primary bedroom is separated from the other three bedrooms, offering privacy. Enjoy the peaceful outdoor spaces surrounded by trees, perfect for relaxation. Also use two sheds for storage. Drop your water toys at Blanchard Public Boat Ramp. Livingston provides excellent fishing opportunities, while nearby amenities include restaurants, bowling at Triple J Lanes, and entertainment at Naskila Casino. Don't miss the stunning sunsets at Lake Livingston - this property is a perfect getaway for nature lovers. Blanchard boat ramp just minutes down FM 3277 go left.

14. 2026-03-19
    listed $149,000 Active 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    **Home comes furnished***Nestled in Nugent's Cove 2, this 2021 home is a fully furnished retreat. Leave your stress in Houston. Situated on 0.3444 acres, this 4/2 subdivision offers fishing pier. The primary bedroom is separated from the other three bedrooms, offering privacy. Enjoy the peaceful outdoor spaces surrounded by trees, perfect for relaxation. Also use two sheds for storage. Drop your water toys at Blanchard Public Boat Ramp. Livingston provides excellent fishing opportunities, while nearby amenities include restaurants, bowling at Triple J Lanes, and entertainment at Naskila Casino. Don't miss the stunning sunsets at Lake Livingston - this property is a perfect getaway for nature lovers. Blanchard boat ramp just minutes down FM 3277 go left.

15. 2025-12-29
    historical
16. 2025-09-13
    price $140,000
17. 2025-05-07
    price $150,000
18. 2025-03-01
    listed $153,000 Active
19. 2023-06-01
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $322 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,221/yr (+$185/mo · 688.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$322
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,532
• − Management: −$1,532
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $3,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$739
• After-tax cash flow: $4,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-01 Listed $153,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-01 Rental Removed — HARMLS

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $322 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.