2100 Sonja Dr #83 · Rosamond, CA 93560

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $129k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful, renovated 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home , with an awesome wood burning fire place for those cozy family nights! The front porch is huge and very private perfect for those beautiful summer nights! Home boasts new windows, new flooring, new blinds, new toilets, new bathroom vanitys, new bathroom and kitchen faucets. Kitchen has new flooring, fresh crown molding, new sink and faucet, new oven a microwave and a refrigerator. Home has freshly painted drywall interior and freshly painted exterior. New shed in the back yard. New privacy fencing on both sides of the lot. Roof is a 30 year roof and approximately 3-5 years old.

Key facts

• New toilets
• New bathroom vanitys
• New flooring

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIRE PLACE
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW BLINDS
• NEW TOILETS
• NEW BATHROOM VANITYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manager: Vanessa (phone available); Unit features include awning, shed, and porch; Manufacture and model identifiers available
• Financial info: Deposit and park deposit listed
• HOA & community: Park amenities: pool and clubhouse/rec room; Park name: Desert Rose; New space rent listed

Exterior

• Utilities: Individual meters; 220V electric; Cable TV
• Home design: Manufactured home (mobile home); Space/lot number #83; Skirted exterior; All ages community; Manufactured 1989
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition shingle roof (30-year); Skirted foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Awning; Shed; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Gas oven; Disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Floor furnace; Evaporative (wall/window) cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Gas oven; Disposal; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: 220 volts in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 4.3% in Rosamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,178 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Southern Kern Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #387 of 517 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rosamond Elementary (878 students, 94% FRL); Tropico Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 782 students, 80% FRL); Rosamond High Early College Campus (913 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 67% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 463 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.29%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2000 Windcurrent Dr #147	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$125,000	$93	79
2116 Windflow Drive #66 #66	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	10mo	$98,950	$74	75
2104 Windbreak Drive #18 #18	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	5mo	$110,000	$82	75
2013 Sonja Dr #73	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	12mo	$142,500	$96	67
1550 W 20th St Spc 67	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	10mo	$130,000	$90	65
2009 Windbreak Dr #3	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,231 (-8%)	0mo	$130,000	$106	64
1550 20th St W #83	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	3mo	$115,000	$100	59
1550 20th St W #70	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+11%)	10mo	$120,000	$80	58
2109 Windflower Dr #106	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+12%)	14mo	$151,000	$101	55
2016 Windcurrent Dr #143	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	14mo	$151,500	$100	53
2012 Windharp Dr #46	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	8mo	$117,450	$102	51
2021 Windharp #30	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+14%)	1mo	$108,000	$70	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $85,275
• Equity at exit: $62,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $208,656
• Equity at exit: $92,529

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93560

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,555 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $490/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $1,129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,126

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,214	-5% $1,172	+0% $1,129	+5% $1,087	+10% $1,045
Rent	-10% $928	-5% $1,029	+0% $1,129	+5% $1,230	+10% $1,331
Rate	-1.0pp $1,205	-0.5pp $1,168	base $1,129	+0.5pp $1,091	+1.0pp $1,051

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1943 Pengilley Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,600	$1.89	0d	1	0.47mi
1953 Marie Ave Apt A Rosamond, CA	4.0	3.0	1753	$2,550	$1.45	4d	1	0.54mi
1953 Marie Ave Apt A Rosamond, CA	4.0	3.0	1753	$2,550	$1.45	45d	1	0.54mi
2051 Candice Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,395	$1.78	17d	1	0.88mi
3017 Via Bella Rosa Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,800	$1.54	45d	1	1.06mi
3124 Via Bella Rosa Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1809	$3,200	$1.77	45d	1	1.14mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	0d	1	1.19mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1475	$2,000	$1.36	12d	1	1.19mi
2821 Desert St Unit C Rosamond, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,795	$1.84	0d	1	1.30mi
3356 Firebush Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,550	$1.58	21d	1	1.35mi
2910 B St Rosamond, CA	2.0	1.5	1775	$1,542	$0.87	21d	1	1.38mi
3424 Brabham Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1364	$2,150	$1.58	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-17
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,139 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$649/yr (+$54/mo · 132.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$490
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,453
• − Management: −$2,453
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $11,762
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,823
• After-tax cash flow: $10,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Kern Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637620
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,523
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8093
• State rank: #387 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rosamond

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1178
• US rank: #25952

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosamond, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 22,119
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 22,119
• Household income: $77,431
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 425.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 32% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• Current HPI: 403.7206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $149,900 AVMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $490 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.