Comal Plan · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$221,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · SingleFamily · 446 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Comal floor plan is a well-designed, three-bedroom and two-bathroom home that has a ton of character. The exterior of the home is a beautiful brick structure, with the option to swap the brick for stone. Upon entry, you are greeted by the combined flex space and family room. The flex space allows for either a fourth bedroom, a private study, a formal dining area, a quaint game room, or anything your heart desires. The spacious kitchen/breakfast area and massive family room are perfect for entertaining gatherings of any size! On the right side of the home, you are met with the walk-in utility room with access to your two-car garage, along with the second and third bedrooms. Residing in the middle of the two bedrooms is the full secondary bathroom complete with a shower/bathtub enclosure, single vanity, and a linen closet. Facing the large family room is the extensive kitchen and breakfast area boasting sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, industry-leading appliances, and an undermount stainless steel sink with a ceramic tile backsplash. Do you wish to be able to relax in your backyard while being protected from the weather? Opt to include an exclusive covered patio! Next to the breakfast/kitchen combination area are two more linen closets, and the entry to your Master bedroom and bathroom with a huge walk-in closet. Retreat to your master bathroom that includes the option of double vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, and an additional linen closet. If. ..

Key facts

• Flex space
• Covered patio
• Walk-in utility room

Tags

• FLEX SPACE
• WALK-IN UTILITY ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FLAT-PANEL BIRCH CABINETS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH

🏗️ New construction. The $221,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $228,243.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-690/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,387 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,243
• List price: $221,990
• Delta: -2.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14112 Biscayne Trl	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,570 (-2%)	10mo	$232,650	$148	72
3197 Mann Rd	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (+1%)	4mo	$399,000	$247	71
9521 Last Maples Trl	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,553 (-3%)	11mo	$246,730	$159	67
14208 Sedona Ridge Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-2%)	10mo	$225,000	$144	66
14381 High Hill Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+2%)	4mo	$199,000	$122	65
14135 Biscayne Trl	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,737 (+8%)	13mo	$252,285	$145	62
9553 Last Maples Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-14%)	3mo	$219,000	$159	54
9534 Shady Trail Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (+5%)	1mo	$238,900	$142	51
14131 Biscayne Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-15%)	15mo	$217,850	$160	51
14312 High Hill Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,689 (+5%)	17mo	$229,415	$136	49
9320 Shady Creek Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+11%)	7mo	$249,900	$140	39
9155 Fallow Deer Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,812 (+13%)	13mo	$399,999	$221	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-46,255
• Equity at exit: $34,032

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-66,663
• Equity at exit: $19,734

Cash invested: $63,908 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,197
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$285 /mo · $3,424/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,997

Max offer price $219,926

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $21	+0% $-57	+5% $-136	+10% $-215
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-133	+0% $-57	+5% $19	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $1	base $-57	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,061
• Closing costs: $6,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9302 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1628	$1,775	$1.09	45d	1	0.11mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$1,855	$1.16	1d	14	0.12mi
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,984	$1.11	1d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $221,990 Active 446 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $221,990 Active 443 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $221,990 Active 442 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $221,990 Active 441 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $221,990 Active 440 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $221,990 Active 438 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $221,990 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $221,990 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $221,990 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $221,990 Active 429 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $221,990 Active 428 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $221,990 Active 427 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $221,990 Active 426 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $221,990 Active 425 DOM
15. 2025-04-01
    listed $221,990 Active 1501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1501 chars)

    The Comal floor plan is a well-designed, three-bedroom and two-bathroom home that has a ton of character. The exterior of the home is a beautiful brick structure, with the option to swap the brick for stone. Upon entry, you are greeted by the combined flex space and family room. The flex space allows for either a fourth bedroom, a private study, a formal dining area, a quaint game room, or anything your heart desires. The spacious kitchen/breakfast area and massive family room are perfect for entertaining gatherings of any size! On the right side of the home, you are met with the walk-in utility room with access to your two-car garage, along with the second and third bedrooms. Residing in the middle of the two bedrooms is the full secondary bathroom complete with a shower/bathtub enclosure, single vanity, and a linen closet. Facing the large family room is the extensive kitchen and breakfast area boasting sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, industry-leading appliances, and an undermount stainless steel sink with a ceramic tile backsplash. Do you wish to be able to relax in your backyard while being protected from the weather? Opt to include an exclusive covered patio! Next to the breakfast/kitchen combination area are two more linen closets, and the entry to your Master bedroom and bathroom with a huge walk-in closet. Retreat to your master bathroom that includes the option of double vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, and an additional linen closet. If. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,785
• − Property taxes: −$3,424
• − Insurance: −$1,141
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,847
• − Management: −$1,847
• − Depreciation: −$6,640
• Taxable loss: −$4,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,103
• After-tax cash flow: $414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $221,990 Zillow