2101 Buffalo Plains Dr Plan · Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$179,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

You'll love this 3 bed, 2 bath home! The kitchen features an island with space for bar stools and plenty of cabinets for storage! Situated on a corner lot, the home includes a storage shed for your convenience. Call us today to see this home in person!

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Kitchen island
• Corner lot

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• CORNER LOT
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $179,995

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home; Address: 2101 Buffalo Plains Dr Plan, Fort Lupton, CO 80621
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1620

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (new construction inventory)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $855 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $174,595 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.35%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $25,320
• Equity at exit: $26,838

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $92,320
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80621

• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,657 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $855

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $179,995

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $979	-5% $917	+0% $855	+5% $793	+10% $730
Rent	-10% $645	-5% $750	+0% $855	+5% $960	+10% $1,065
Rate	-1.0pp $946	-0.5pp $901	base $855	+0.5pp $808	+1.0pp $761

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,999
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Whitetail Ave Fort Lupton, CO	2.0–4.0	2.0	1296	$2,100	$1.62	5d	1	0.03mi
2185 Alyssa St Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,925	$1.35	5d	1	0.27mi
2155 Alyssa St Fort Lupton, CO	3.0	2.5	1870	$2,845	$1.52	5d	1	0.28mi
2221 Christina St Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	2.5	2171	$3,235	$1.49	5d	1	0.33mi
2170 Christina St Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	2.5	2171	$3,235	$1.49	5d	1	0.37mi
2130 Christina St Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,925	$1.35	5d	1	0.38mi
1653 Wagonwheel Dr Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	3.0	2046	$2,795	$1.37	15d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,995 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,995 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,995 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,995 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,995 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,995 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,995 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,995 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,995 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,995 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,995 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,995 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,995 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,995 Active 13 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,550
• − Management: −$2,550
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $7,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,887
• After-tax cash flow: $8,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8
• NCES district ID: 0804020
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,116
• Composite: 18.48/100
• National rank: #8921
• State rank: #74 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Lupton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #11069

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Lupton, CO
• City population: 14,542
• Population (ZIP): 14,542

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.37%
• Current HPI: 285.9162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B