4200 E Hwy 44 · Rapid Valley, SD 57701

$50,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable one level living in this move in ready manufactured home on a rented lot! Home offers just over 1,200sqft , 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Spacious living room with vaulted ceilings and large kitchen and dining area. Kitchen features an island, gas range, and a large wall of cupboards with countertop for storage. There is a large primary bedroom with en suite bathroom and double closets, plus two additional bedrooms. Outside enjoy a wonderful 13x19 covered deck (composit decking), yard to play in and 2 storage sheds. Home is not currently on a permanent foundation. It can also be moved off the lot. Please note buyer will need to pay cash or acquire special financing as home will not quliafy for a conventional loan.

Key facts

• Updated siding
• Updated windows
• Built 1978

Tags

• UPDATED WINDOWS
• UPDATED SIDING
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: WILLIAMS
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Rubber roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $970 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.6% vs local median 4.0% in Rapid Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#160 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapid City Area School District 51-4 (urban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #50 of 59 in SD (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,181 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (715 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pennington County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.18%
• DSCR: 4.70
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,424
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4743 Williams St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	17mo	$272,000	$270	71
5002 Savannah St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	990 (-2%)	0mo	$285,000	$288	68
2477 Reed Ct	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,124 (+12%)	3mo	$274,900	$245	65
4620 Carol St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (0%)	20mo	$255,000	$253	62
5005 Dylan Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,046 (+4%)	13mo	$329,900	$315	61
5047 Williams St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,022 (+1%)	11mo	$320,000	$313	61
1685 Dorothy Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	11mo	$230,000	$228	59
5305 Mercury Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,008 (0%)	9mo	$312,500	$310	54
3224 Johnston Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+10%)	5mo	$280,000	$254	48
4961 Savannah St	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,105 (+10%)	10mo	$335,000	$303	44
3511 Jerusalem Blvd	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,110 (+10%)	10mo	$385,500	$347	40
2017 Meadow Ln	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	872 (-14%)	3mo	$270,000	$310	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $51,594
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.29×
• Total profit: $116,078
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57701

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,666 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $970

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,005	-5% $988	+0% $970	+5% $953	+10% $936
Rent	-10% $839	-5% $905	+0% $970	+5% $1,036	+10% $1,102
Rate	-1.0pp $996	-0.5pp $983	base $970	+0.5pp $957	+1.0pp $944

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3276 Jim St Rapid City, SD	2.0	1.0–2.0	718	$1,500	$2.09	22d	50	0.81mi
4801 Homestead St Rapid City, SD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,865	$1.64	22d	16	1.20mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $50,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $50,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $55,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    historical Active Under Contract 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Affordable one level living in this move in ready manufactured home on a rented lot! Home offers just over 1,200sqft , 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Spacious living room with vaulted ceilings and large kitchen and dining area. Kitchen features an island, gas range, and a large wall of cupboards with countertop for storage. There is a large primary bedroom with en suite bathroom and double closets, plus two additional bedrooms. Outside enjoy a wonderful 13x19 covered deck (composit decking), yard to play in and 2 storage sheds. Home is not currently on a permanent foundation. It can also be moved off the lot. Please note buyer will need to pay cash or acquire special financing as home will not quliafy for a conventional loan.

19. 2026-05-12
    listed $60,000 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Affordable living with major updates! This well-maintained 1978 mobile home offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a spacious 14x72 layout. Recent improvements include updated windows and siding, a tankless water heater, and central air conditioning for year-round comfort. Lot rent is $400/month and includes garbage service. Don’t miss this great opportunity for affordable homeownership in the Black Hills area

20. 2026-05-12
    listed $60,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Affordable living with major updates! This well-maintained 1978 mobile home offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a spacious 14x72 layout. Recent improvements include updated windows and siding, a tankless water heater, and central air conditioning for year-round comfort. Lot rent is $400/month and includes garbage service. Don’t miss this great opportunity for affordable homeownership in the Black Hills area

21. 2026-04-22
    listed $86,900 Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Affordable one level living in this move in ready manufactured home on a rented lot! Home offers just over 1,200sqft , 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Spacious living room with vaulted ceilings and large kitchen and dining area. Kitchen features an island, gas range, and a large wall of cupboards with countertop for storage. There is a large primary bedroom with en suite bathroom and double closets, plus two additional bedrooms. Outside enjoy a wonderful 13x19 covered deck (composit decking), yard to play in and 2 storage sheds. Home is not currently on a permanent foundation. It can also be moved off the lot. Please note buyer will need to pay cash or acquire special financing as home will not quliafy for a conventional loan.

22. 2023-07-12
    soldstatus $62,000 Closed
23. 2023-07-01
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2023-06-28
    listed $69,900 Active
25. 2019-08-09
    soldstatus $26,000
26. 2019-06-14
    listed $26,000
27. 1989-03-01
    soldstatus $379,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,599
• − Management: −$1,599
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $11,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,769
• After-tax cash flow: $8,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapid City Area School District 51-4
• NCES district ID: 4659820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,145
• Composite: 34.47/100
• National rank: #5189
• State rank: #50 of 59 in SD

Livability — Rapid Valley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #13677

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rapid Valley, SD
• County: Pennington County · 99,403 people
• City population: 99,403
• Metro: Rapid City, SD
• Population (ZIP): 45,795
• Household income: $56,461
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Pennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,504 people
• By 2030: 133,370 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 147,505 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 160,507 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 197,585 · +57.4%
• By 2100: 241,736 · +92.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Native American 11% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pennington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.4% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+33.0 2012: R+29.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.12%
• Current HPI: 222.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.71%
• Metro: Rapid City, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

-84.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Contingent — BHMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $60,000 BHMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $60,000 MRAOR
• 2026-04-22 Listed $86,900 BHMLS
• 2023-07-12 Sold (MLS) $62,000 BHMLS
• 2023-07-01 Contingent — BHMLS
• 2023-06-28 Listed $69,900 BHMLS
• 2019-08-09 Sold (MLS) $26,000 BHMLS
• 2019-06-14 Listed $26,000 BHMLS
• 1989-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $379,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $16,753 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.