Littleton Plan · Marble Falls, TX 78654

$276,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily · 125 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• MODERN LAYOUT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $276,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Marble Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools D, employment D.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 764 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,653 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.91%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,490
• List price: $276,999
• Delta: -6.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Cascade Falls Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-1%)	1mo	$281,999	$145	89
104 Southridge Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-1%)	2mo	$311,999	$160	87
100 Cascade Falls Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+5%)	1mo	$332,990	$162	87
264 Rock Springs Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+5%)	2mo	$297,990	$145	87
105 Southridge Trl	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-1%)	2mo	$292,999	$150	87
100 Southridge Trl	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+5%)	2mo	$320,990	$156	87
248 Rock Springs Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-1%)	2mo	$284,999	$146	86
109 Southridge Trl	0.08mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+5%)	1mo	$295,990	$144	86
240 Rock Springs Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+5%)	1mo	$304,990	$148	85
124 Southridge Trl	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,097 (+7%)	1mo	$321,740	$153	80
128 Southridge Trl	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,109 (+7%)	1mo	$329,990	$156	79
105 Cascade Falls Ln	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,207 (+12%)	1mo	$332,990	$151	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-67,921
• Equity at exit: $44,357

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-102,154
• Equity at exit: $25,721

Cash invested: $83,297 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 764
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,560
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,462/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,602

Max offer price $268,242

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-99	+0% $-202	+5% $-305	+10% $-408
Rent	-10% $-388	-5% $-295	+0% $-202	+5% $-109	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-52	-0.5pp $-126	base $-202	+0.5pp $-279	+1.0pp $-358

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,372
• Closing costs: $8,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
252 Rock Springs Dr Marble Falls, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,300	$1.38	44d	1	0.09mi
169 Standing Rock Ln Marble Falls, TX	4.0	3.0	2525	$2,750	$1.09	5d	1	0.22mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $276,999 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,999 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $276,999 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,999 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,999 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,999 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,999 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $276,999 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,999 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $276,999 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $276,999 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,999 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $276,999 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $276,999 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    price $276,999 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

16. 2026-02-16
    listed $276,990 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,664
• − Property taxes: −$4,462
• − Insurance: −$1,487
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
• − Management: −$2,253
• − Depreciation: −$8,654
• Taxable loss: −$7,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,828
• After-tax cash flow: $-598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marble Falls

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #7802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marble Falls, TX
• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• City population: 20,650
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $276,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $276,990 Zillow