100 Leisure Dr · Aberdeen, WA 98520

$89,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1993 $78/sqft · 80% above area ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Clean and ready to move in. 3 bedroom 2 bath 1993 manufactured home with large back yard located next to entry of Leisure Manor park. Subject to park approval. Park space rent is $787.50/mo.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1993
• Listed 106 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.1% in Aberdeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#73 in WA, #1,320 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, employment F.
• Aberdeen School District (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #222 of 291 in WA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,445 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.13%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,985
• List price: $89,500
• Delta: 54.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Ho Hum Ln	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,135 (-2%)	3mo	$55,000	$48	84
25 Meander Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	11mo	$72,500	$65	80
115 E Mohler	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	7mo	$279,500	$259	64
1504 S Evans St	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,142 (-1%)	10mo	$175,000	$153	61
1212 S Evans St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	23mo	$304,784	$235	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $26,230
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $81,127
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98520

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $481/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $692

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $659	-5% $634	+0% $608	+5% $583	+10% $558
Rent	-10% $493	-5% $551	+0% $608	+5% $666	+10% $724
Rate	-1.0pp $653	-0.5pp $631	base $608	+0.5pp $585	+1.0pp $562

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1200 W Huntley St Unit 3 Aberdeen, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	45d	1	0.57mi
100 W Curtis St Aberdeen, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	45d	1	0.68mi
1731 S Boone St Unit 303 Aberdeen, WA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	45d	1	0.74mi
109 S Park St Apt 1 Aberdeen, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,375	$1.72	45d	1	1.41mi
109 S Park St Apt 2 Aberdeen, WA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,500 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,500 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,500 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,500 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,500 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,500 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,500 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,500 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    price $92,000
18. 2026-03-06
    listed $95,000 Active
19. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed
20. 2024-04-23
    status Pending
21. 2024-03-07
    price $110,000
22. 2024-02-05
    price $115,000
23. 2023-12-14
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $481 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $877 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 82.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$481
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,404
• − Management: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $6,192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,486
• After-tax cash flow: $5,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aberdeen School District
• NCES district ID: 5300030
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,896
• Composite: 36.13/100
• National rank: #9477
• State rank: #222 of 291 in WA

Livability — Aberdeen

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #1320

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aberdeen, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 24,888
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,888
• Household income: $58,153
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 635.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.75%
• Current HPI: 207.7393
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-26.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $92,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $95,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-21 Sold (MLS) $95,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-23 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-07 Price Changed $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-05 Price Changed $115,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-14 Listed $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $481 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.