Barcelona Plan · Haines City, FL 33844

$244,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · Townhouse · 595 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Large lanai
• Two-story townhome
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• TWO-STORY TOWNHOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $269,990

Exterior

• Home design: New construction — Barcelona plan; Active listing
• Construction: Built as part of the Barcelona plan (new construction inventory)
• Exterior features: Plan home located at 3879 King Hill Dr, Haines City, FL 33844

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (1,535 total living area)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($71/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 595 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,065 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 595 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,198
• Equity at exit: $36,529

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-52,459
• Equity at exit: $21,182

Cash invested: $68,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $244,990

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,248
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	23d	1	0.13mi
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,850	$1.20	23d	1	0.20mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	23d	1	0.49mi
4770 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,000	$0.95	23d	1	0.50mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	23d	1	0.52mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	3d	1	0.54mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	14d	1	0.54mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	2d	1	0.54mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	23d	1	0.56mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,500	$1.36	23d	1	0.68mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	14d	1	0.68mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	3d	1	0.70mi
333 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,985	$1.04	11d	1	0.71mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	23d	1	0.72mi
117 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2099	$2,085	$0.99	23d	1	0.78mi
120 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,020	$1.06	13d	1	0.78mi
202 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,905	$0.96	11d	1	0.81mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	23d	1	0.82mi
167 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$2,020	$1.02	18d	1	0.83mi
148 Summerlin Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,850	$1.17	14d	1	0.83mi
432 Summer Grove Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,850	$1.44	23d	1	0.97mi
1361 Current Pl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$2,100	$1.29	23d	1	0.98mi
239 Summerlin Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$2,300	$1.06	23d	1	0.98mi
2203 Pigeon Plum Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1887	$2,190	$1.16	10d	1	1.01mi
1462 Sea Glass Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,200	$1.01	23d	1	1.03mi
1138 Foreshore Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,200	$1.27	23d	1	1.03mi
621 Sand Pine Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	10d	1	1.04mi
1276 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,895	$1.00	11d	1	1.16mi
1950 Pond Pine Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,975	$1.02	23d	1	1.21mi
2117 Winger Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	23d	1	1.21mi
1364 Conch Key Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	3d	1	1.25mi
429 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,990	$1.22	18d	1	1.28mi
1053 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,550	$1.27	23d	1	1.32mi
1105 Lexington Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2123	$1,995	$0.94	18d	1	1.32mi
299 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	23d	1	1.36mi
1717 Frogmore Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	23d	1	1.38mi
833 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1887	$1,950	$1.03	10d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,990 Active 595 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,990 Active 594 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,990 Active 593 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,990 Active 592 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,990 Active 590 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,990 Active 587 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,990 Active 586 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,990 Active 585 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,990 Active 584 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $244,990 Active 581 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,499 Active 579 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,499 Active 578 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,499 Active 577 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,723
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$977
• After-tax cash flow: $1,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B