18054 Manteno Dr · Shady Hills, FL 34610

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1973 1.14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

“Investor special with endless potential — and a healthy dose of imagination required! Situated on 1.17 private acres, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home offers a huge living room, two detached garages with overhead doors, a metal pole carport, and an oversized screened area (screening currently auditioning for retirement). Two Large Sheds with Electric. The mobile home needs major repairs including flooring, roof, and A/C. Property will convey as-is, where-is, with remaining trash and debris staying behind per owner. For the right buyer, this could be a rewarding flip, rental project, or future homesite. Bring your tools, your dumpster, and your vision!” Location Locatio

Key facts

• 1.14 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential mobile home; Property subtype: Mobile Home (double wide); Zoning: AR; Lot size about 1.14 acres (1 to less than 2 acres)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Fire hydrant nearby
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; East-facing
• Construction: Metal siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Storage; Chain link and other fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No built-in appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Outdoor laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $955 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.5% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shady Hills Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 471 students, 77% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 48% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $130k implies a 228% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.48%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $333,792
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17741 Nicks Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	16mo	$320,000	$228	53
18031 Applejack Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	11mo	$285,000	$183	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $39,708
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $112,716
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34610

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $492/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $955

Break-even live

Break-even rent $983

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-21
   listed $130,000 Active
3. 1993-12-13
   soldstatus $39,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$587/yr (+$49/mo · 119.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$492
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,104
• − Management: −$2,104
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $9,890
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,374
• After-tax cash flow: $9,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Hills, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,544

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.13%
• Current HPI: 342.8714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+228.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $39,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $492 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.