864 Upper Montague Rd · Bowie, TX 76230

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1991 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the perfect blend of country living and everyday convenience with this charming 2-1 mobile, situated on one-acre of land, located just outside of town on a paved county road. Surrounded by mature trees and lush green space, the nicely maintained grounds feature a gated entrance, storage building; cross-fencing provides a small livestock pen, and former chicken coops could be easily made ready for use. There are plenty of suitable areas for gardening. Larger neighboring tracts and a tree-lined boundary create a private, secluded setting. The property has an improved well, refurbished septic system, and a durable metal roof in good condition. Conveniently located near schools and shoppi

Key facts

• Cross-fencing
• Gated entrance
• Small livestock pen

Tags

• GATED ENTRANCE
• CROSS-FENCING
• SMALL LIVESTOCK PEN
• FORMER CHICKEN COOPS
• SUITABLE AREAS FOR GARDENING
• PRIVATE SECLUDED SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Aerial photo and survey available; Personal items excluded; refrigerator and range convey, other appliances/furniture may be negotiable; no minerals convey
• Financial info: Listing is For Sale (cash or conventional financing accepted)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Asphalt access; Co-op electric; Septic system; Well water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Accessible approach with ramp; Attached
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in 1991
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered patio/porch; Gray water system; Stable/barn; Barbed wire and pipe fencing; Cleared, grassed, and partially wooded vegetation; Large backyard with grass; Pasture

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Water filter
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.1% in Bowie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#796 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bowie ISD (town): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #469 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bowie El (422 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 42% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 23 units permitted in Montague County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montague County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,500 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.15%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-8,156
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,119
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76230

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $875 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $471/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $730

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 E Nelson St Unit B Bowie, TX	1.0	1.0	680	$875	$1.29	1d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $95,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $471 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,267/yr (+$106/mo · 268.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$471
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$840
• − Management: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$51
• After-tax cash flow: $1,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bowie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810990
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,720
• Composite: 31.99/100
• National rank: #5836
• State rank: #469 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bowie

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #796
• US rank: #14499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,885

Population outlook (Montague County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,216 people
• By 2030: 17,603 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 16,451 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 15,424 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 13,365 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 10,998 · -39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montague

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.7) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -58.5pp · 2024: -77.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.7 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+70.1 2008: R+58.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.69%
• Current HPI: 204.0919
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $95,000 NTREIS
• 2012-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $471 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.