9407 Lakeshore View Rd · Bridgeport, NY 13037

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily · 201 Days on market

Built 1925 0.37 ac lot Est $200k · at est. ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful lake front property on Onedia Lake. 62 feet of waterfront property on Billington Bay. There is a small 3 bed 1 bath camp that will need total renovations or to be torn down and build a new home. there is public water, electric and public sewers. there is natural gas available at the street. Small shed on property also. Great views of Oneida lake. Small old dock goes with sale. Bring you hammer and ideas. Sold as is to settle estate. No Survey provided.

Key facts

• Public sewers
• Lake front property
• Small shed

Tags

• LAKE FRONT PROPERTY
• WATERFRONT PROPERTY
• PUBLIC WATER
• PUBLIC SEWERS
• NATURAL GAS AVAILABLE
• SMALL SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.3% in Bridgeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#655 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Chittenango Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #192 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.56%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9407 Lakeshore View Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	640 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$313	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,814
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,207
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13037

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $351	-5% $282	+0% $213	+5% $144	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $53	-5% $133	+0% $213	+5% $293	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $264	base $213	+0.5pp $161	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-06
   price $200,000
3. 2025-09-16
   price $224,900
4. 2025-06-18
   listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$160
• After-tax cash flow: $2,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chittenango Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607470
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $62,521
• Composite: 54.34/100
• National rank: #1365
• State rank: #192 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bridgeport

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #12191

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,611
• Population (ZIP): 9,519

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,528 people
• By 2030: 66,599 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 59,814 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 52,842 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,167 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 28,442 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+15.9 2012: D+0.3 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.53%
• Current HPI: 272.9953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $200,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $224,900 CNYIS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $249,900 CNYIS