100 Cottonwood Dr · Fawn Lake Forest, PA 18428

$312,800

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1975 0.63 ac lot $290/sqft · 93% above area Est $251k · 24% over $250/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, move-in-ready Poconos chalet with recent improvements including a new septic system, wood-burning fireplace, mini-split for efficient heating and cooling, updated appliances and a Level 2 EV charger in the attached garage. The bright, freshly painted living space creates a warm, inviting atmosphere and three generously sized bedrooms offer plenty of room for families and guests. Enjoy abundant wildlife from the large screened porch, perfect for morning coffee and family dinners. The garage level features a dedicated laundry room as well as ample storage for tools, sports equipment, and seasonal items. Nestled in the desirable Hemlock Farms community where residents enjoy access to premium amenities including lakes, beaches, pools, fitness facilities, pickleball/tennis courts and year-round community activities, all just a short drive from the NYC metro area. Commuter bus to Manhattan just half a mile from the community entrance. Located in the highly rated Wallenpaupack School District. Ideal for full-time living or weekend getaways -- extensively upgraded and ready to enjoy from day one!'' See virtual tour link:https://my. matterport.com/show/ ?m=LqpuMVATw9q

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• New septic system
• Level 2 ev charger

Tags

• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• LEVEL 2 EV CHARGER
• LARGE SCREENED PORCH
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $313k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-534 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (30.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,395 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $208k; list at $313k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,642 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.31%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,329
• List price: $312,800
• Delta: 24.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 Cottonwood Drive Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+9%)	9mo	$210,000	$179	73
241 Forest Ridge Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-4%)	18mo	$135,000	$130	49
108 Stag Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+7%)	14mo	$251,000	$218	48
107 Cherry Point Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,193 (+10%)	13mo	$489,000	$410	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $136,447
• Equity at exit: $281,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $428,716
• Equity at exit: $607,702

Cash invested: $87,584 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,166 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,640
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,695/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,842

Max offer price $218,508

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-357	-5% $-445	+0% $-534	+5% $-622	+10% $-711
Rent	-10% $-705	-5% $-619	+0% $-534	+5% $-448	+10% $-363
Rate	-1.0pp $-376	-0.5pp $-454	base $-534	+0.5pp $-615	+1.0pp $-697

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,200
• Closing costs: $9,384
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $312,800 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,800 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,800 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $312,800 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,800 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,800 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $312,800 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,800 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $312,800 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $312,800 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $312,800 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $312,800 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $312,800 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $312,800 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $312,800 1187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

    Charming, move-in-ready Poconos chalet with recent improvements including a new septic system, wood-burning fireplace, mini-split for efficient heating and cooling, updated appliances and a Level 2 EV charger in the attached garage. The bright, freshly painted living space creates a warm, inviting atmosphere and three generously sized bedrooms offer plenty of room for families and guests. Enjoy abundant wildlife from the large screened porch, perfect for morning coffee and family dinners. The garage level features a dedicated laundry room as well as ample storage for tools, sports equipment, and seasonal items. Nestled in the desirable Hemlock Farms community where residents enjoy access to premium amenities including lakes, beaches, pools, fitness facilities, pickleball/tennis courts and year-round community activities, all just a short drive from the NYC metro area. Commuter bus to Manhattan just half a mile from the community entrance. Located in the highly rated Wallenpaupack School District. Ideal for full-time living or weekend getaways -- extensively upgraded and ready to enjoy from day one!'' See virtual tour link:https://my. matterport.com/show/ ?m=LqpuMVATw9q

16. 2026-04-09
    listed $318,800 Active 1187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

    Charming, move-in-ready Poconos chalet with recent improvements including a new septic system, wood-burning fireplace, mini-split for efficient heating and cooling, updated appliances and a Level 2 EV charger in the attached garage. The bright, freshly painted living space creates a warm, inviting atmosphere and three generously sized bedrooms offer plenty of room for families and guests. Enjoy abundant wildlife from the large screened porch, perfect for morning coffee and family dinners. The garage level features a dedicated laundry room as well as ample storage for tools, sports equipment, and seasonal items. Nestled in the desirable Hemlock Farms community where residents enjoy access to premium amenities including lakes, beaches, pools, fitness facilities, pickleball/tennis courts and year-round community activities, all just a short drive from the NYC metro area. Commuter bus to Manhattan just half a mile from the community entrance. Located in the highly rated Wallenpaupack School District. Ideal for full-time living or weekend getaways -- extensively upgraded and ready to enjoy from day one!'' See virtual tour link:https://my. matterport.com/show/ ?m=LqpuMVATw9q

17. 2024-06-06
    soldstatus $208,000
18. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus $208,000 Closed 1994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1994 chars)

    Come and experience the joy of living in this beautiful home located in a gated community called Hemlock Farms. This lovely house that offers three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, is situated on a spacious 0.64 acre parcel of land. As you enter the home, you will be greeted by a stunning slate floor that leads you into a versatile room. This room can be used as a home office, hobby area, exercise spot, or even a private guest quarter. Adjacent to the foyer, you will find access to the one car garage, which provides ample space for your vehicle as well as storage for seasonal items. The lower level also conveniently features a laundry room with a wash basin hookup. On the main level, you will find a beautifully updated galley kitchen with plenty of cabinet storage. It is equipped with a refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave, and stovetop oven. The kitchen also has a window that allows natural light to brighten the space. From the kitchen, you can access a spacious screened porch, which leads to an attached deck. This outdoor space is perfect for hosting barbeques or simply enjoying the scenic backyard. Additional space for storage can be found under the screened porch. Indoors the open floor plan of the living room and dining room creates a welcoming atmosphere for entertaining guests or spending quality time with family members. The focal point of the living room is a charming brick face wood burning fireplace, creating a cozy ambiance for socializing or enjoying a meal. A tiled full bathroom with a closet and window is conveniently located off the living room. When it's time to unwind, retreat to the primary bedroom tucked away in its own corner of the house. The upper level of the home boasts two additional bedrooms, each with their own window. These bedrooms have access to a full bathroom with a shower. Throughout the main and upper levels, you will find beautiful tongue and groove ceilings and hardwood floors, adding a touch of charm and warmth to the home.

19. 2024-04-24
    status Pending 1994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1994 chars)

    Come and experience the joy of living in this beautiful home located in a gated community called Hemlock Farms. This lovely house that offers three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, is situated on a spacious 0.64 acre parcel of land. As you enter the home, you will be greeted by a stunning slate floor that leads you into a versatile room. This room can be used as a home office, hobby area, exercise spot, or even a private guest quarter. Adjacent to the foyer, you will find access to the one car garage, which provides ample space for your vehicle as well as storage for seasonal items. The lower level also conveniently features a laundry room with a wash basin hookup. On the main level, you will find a beautifully updated galley kitchen with plenty of cabinet storage. It is equipped with a refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave, and stovetop oven. The kitchen also has a window that allows natural light to brighten the space. From the kitchen, you can access a spacious screened porch, which leads to an attached deck. This outdoor space is perfect for hosting barbeques or simply enjoying the scenic backyard. Additional space for storage can be found under the screened porch. Indoors the open floor plan of the living room and dining room creates a welcoming atmosphere for entertaining guests or spending quality time with family members. The focal point of the living room is a charming brick face wood burning fireplace, creating a cozy ambiance for socializing or enjoying a meal. A tiled full bathroom with a closet and window is conveniently located off the living room. When it's time to unwind, retreat to the primary bedroom tucked away in its own corner of the house. The upper level of the home boasts two additional bedrooms, each with their own window. These bedrooms have access to a full bathroom with a shower. Throughout the main and upper levels, you will find beautiful tongue and groove ceilings and hardwood floors, adding a touch of charm and warmth to the home.

20. 2024-02-14
    listed $255,000 Active 1994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1994 chars)

    Come and experience the joy of living in this beautiful home located in a gated community called Hemlock Farms. This lovely house that offers three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, is situated on a spacious 0.64 acre parcel of land. As you enter the home, you will be greeted by a stunning slate floor that leads you into a versatile room. This room can be used as a home office, hobby area, exercise spot, or even a private guest quarter. Adjacent to the foyer, you will find access to the one car garage, which provides ample space for your vehicle as well as storage for seasonal items. The lower level also conveniently features a laundry room with a wash basin hookup. On the main level, you will find a beautifully updated galley kitchen with plenty of cabinet storage. It is equipped with a refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave, and stovetop oven. The kitchen also has a window that allows natural light to brighten the space. From the kitchen, you can access a spacious screened porch, which leads to an attached deck. This outdoor space is perfect for hosting barbeques or simply enjoying the scenic backyard. Additional space for storage can be found under the screened porch. Indoors the open floor plan of the living room and dining room creates a welcoming atmosphere for entertaining guests or spending quality time with family members. The focal point of the living room is a charming brick face wood burning fireplace, creating a cozy ambiance for socializing or enjoying a meal. A tiled full bathroom with a closet and window is conveniently located off the living room. When it's time to unwind, retreat to the primary bedroom tucked away in its own corner of the house. The upper level of the home boasts two additional bedrooms, each with their own window. These bedrooms have access to a full bathroom with a shower. Throughout the main and upper levels, you will find beautiful tongue and groove ceilings and hardwood floors, adding a touch of charm and warmth to the home.

21. 2023-09-14
    price $255,000
22. 2023-08-27
    status Active
23. 2023-08-16
    historical
24. 2023-08-12
    status Active
25. 2023-08-12
    price $265,000
26. 2023-08-11
    historical
27. 2023-05-09
    listed $255,000
28. 2023-05-09
    listed $285,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,695 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,818 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,124/yr (+$94/mo · 41.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,522
• − Property taxes: −$2,695
• − Insurance: −$1,564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$9,100
• Taxable loss: −$12,042
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,890
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fawn Lake Forest

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1395
• US rank: #17626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fawn Lake Forest, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+22.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $312,800 PWMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $318,800 PWMLS
• 2024-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $208,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) $208,000 PWMLS
• 2024-04-24 Pending — PWMLS
• 2024-02-14 Listed $255,000 PWMLS
• 2023-09-14 Price Changed $255,000 PWMLS
• 2023-08-27 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2023-08-16 Delisted — PWMLS
• 2023-08-12 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2023-08-12 Price Changed $265,000 PWMLS
• 2023-08-11 Delisted — PWMLS
• 2023-05-09 Listed $285,000 PWMLS
• 2023-05-09 Listed $255,000 PWMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,695 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.