3011 Houston Ave Unit B · Houston, TX 77009

$405,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,472 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Built 2003 1,576 sqft lot $164/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location! Location! Location! This gorgeous home is in a small gated community within walking distance from several bars and restaurants the White Oak hiking trail and Uncle Bean's coffee just across the street. Quick bike ride to White Oak restaurants, bars, parks, and coffee shops. Zoned to one of the best elementary schools in Houston, Travis Elementary. Book your showing today! NO FLOODING EVER! Call Shireen Hadi for more information: 713-377-2133

Key facts

• Gated community
• Walking distance
• Travis elementary

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• WALKING DISTANCE
• WHITE OAK HIKING TRAIL
• TRAVIS ELEMENTARY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($752/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $362k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $356k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 595 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,622/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 994% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 19 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $356,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.66%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $879,264
• List price: $405,000
• Delta: -53.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3012 Beauchamp St	0.09mi	3/4.0	2,704 (+9%)	1mo	$1,195,000	$442	77
414 Woodland St	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,365 (-4%)	3mo	$1,100,000	$465	76
711 Boundary St	0.53mi	3/3.5	2,447 (-1%)	1mo	$439,000	$179	73
518 Byrne St	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,344 (-5%)	2mo	$1,220,000	$520	66
814 Omar St	0.56mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,496 (+1%)	2mo	$1,285,000	$515	66
2916 Michaux St	0.69mi	3/3.5	2,500 (+1%)	3mo	$900,000	$360	64
1511 Alamo St	0.66mi	3/3.5	2,397 (-3%)	1mo	$499,999	$209	63
719 Woodland St	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,336 (-6%)	4mo	$990,000	$424	62
2405 Freeman St	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,336 (-6%)	2mo	$425,000	$182	59
950 Omar St	0.72mi	3/3.5	2,550 (+3%)	3mo	$1,300,000	$510	59
912 Teetshorn St	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,814 (+14%)	2mo	$1,149,000	$408	42
603 Vincent St	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,800 (+13%)	4mo	$775,000	$277	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-69,290
• Equity at exit: $60,387

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-85,259
• Equity at exit: $35,017

Cash invested: $113,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77009

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,622 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$506 /mo · $6,075/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$761
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,543

Max offer price $405,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,250
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2403 Everett St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2093	$2,800	$1.34	43d	1	0.58mi
401 Walton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2112	$2,500	$1.18	15d	1	0.63mi
2114 Sabine St Unit 1257735P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2594	$6,588	$2.54	43d	1	0.71mi
2114 Sabine St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2020	$3,200	$1.58	43d	1	0.71mi
1510 Crockett St Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	1912	$2,800	$1.46	43d	1	0.82mi
1512 Crockett St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1808	$2,800	$1.55	43d	1	0.82mi
410 James St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$6,750	$4.21	43d	1	0.83mi
410 James St Unit 1031793P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$7,554	$4.74	16d	1	0.83mi
1116 Woodland St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2400	$4,000	$1.67	43d	1	0.89mi
2018 Crockett St Unit 1029793P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2507	$6,482	$2.59	5d	1	0.93mi
2018 Crockett St Unit 2018 Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2514	$8,000	$3.18	43d	1	0.93mi
2706 Cochran St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1791	$2,700	$1.51	19d	1	0.96mi
4605 Fisk St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$3,000	$1.84	43d	1	1.09mi
1039 Hillstar St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,750	$1.54	12d	1	1.24mi
4615 Indie Heights Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1685	$2,900	$1.72	43d	1	1.42mi
1614 Northwood St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2300	$2,850	$1.24	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $405,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $405,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $405,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $405,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $405,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $405,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $405,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $405,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $425,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-05-13
    price $425,000 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! This gorgeous home is in a small gated community within walking distance from several bars and restaurants the White Oak hiking trail and Uncle Bean's coffee just across the street. Quick bike ride to White Oak restaurants, bars, parks, and coffee shops. Zoned to one of the best elementary schools in Houston, Travis Elementary. Book your showing today! NO FLOODING EVER! Call Shireen Hadi for more information: 713-377-2133

13. 2026-04-07
    price $435,000 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! This gorgeous home is in a small gated community within walking distance from several bars and restaurants the White Oak hiking trail and Uncle Bean's coffee just across the street. Quick bike ride to White Oak restaurants, bars, parks, and coffee shops. Zoned to one of the best elementary schools in Houston, Travis Elementary. Book your showing today! NO FLOODING EVER! Call Shireen Hadi for more information: 713-377-2133

14. 2026-03-04
    price $450,000 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! This gorgeous home is in a small gated community within walking distance from several bars and restaurants the White Oak hiking trail and Uncle Bean's coffee just across the street. Quick bike ride to White Oak restaurants, bars, parks, and coffee shops. Zoned to one of the best elementary schools in Houston, Travis Elementary. Book your showing today! NO FLOODING EVER! Call Shireen Hadi for more information: 713-377-2133

15. 2026-02-24
    price $480,000 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! This gorgeous home is in a small gated community within walking distance from several bars and restaurants the White Oak hiking trail and Uncle Bean's coffee just across the street. Quick bike ride to White Oak restaurants, bars, parks, and coffee shops. Zoned to one of the best elementary schools in Houston, Travis Elementary. Book your showing today! NO FLOODING EVER! Call Shireen Hadi for more information: 713-377-2133

16. 2026-02-11
    listed $500,000 Active 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! This gorgeous home is in a small gated community within walking distance from several bars and restaurants the White Oak hiking trail and Uncle Bean's coffee just across the street. Quick bike ride to White Oak restaurants, bars, parks, and coffee shops. Zoned to one of the best elementary schools in Houston, Travis Elementary. Book your showing today! NO FLOODING EVER! Call Shireen Hadi for more information: 713-377-2133

17. 2026-01-01
    historical $2,750
18. 2025-10-09
    price $2,750
19. 2025-09-05
    listed $2,900
20. 2024-09-05
    historical
21. 2024-09-03
    historical $3,000
22. 2024-08-16
    price $3,000
23. 2024-07-31
    listed $3,200
24. 2024-07-31
    listed $430,000 Active
25. 2024-07-31
    price $430,000
26. 2024-04-01
    historical
27. 2023-10-06
    historical $2,750
28. 2023-08-12
    price $2,750
29. 2023-08-02
    price $2,800
30. 2023-07-11
    listed $3,000
31. 2023-07-10
    listed $465,000 Active
32. 2023-06-30
    historical
33. 2023-03-06
    status Active
34. 2023-03-06
    status Active
35. 2023-03-06
    historical
36. 2023-03-06
    historical
37. 2023-03-06
    listed $465,000 Active
38. 2022-11-19
    historical
39. 2022-08-12
    price $465,000
40. 2022-06-21
    price $515,000
41. 2022-06-21
    listed $2,600 Active
42. 2022-06-02
    historical
43. 2022-02-05
    listed $535,000 Active
44. 2019-04-25
    historical
45. 2019-04-01
    listed $385,000 Active
46. 2019-01-23
    listed $2,500 Active
47. 2019-01-23
    historical
48. 2018-08-21
    historical
49. 2018-06-28
    price $429,000
50. 2018-06-18
    listed $400,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$6,075
• − Insurance: −$2,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,477
• − Management: −$3,477
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable loss: −$6,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,454
• After-tax cash flow: $2,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,769
• Household income: $83,148
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.57%
• Current HPI: 219.5037
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+52.3% since first listed

49 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $435,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $450,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $480,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $500,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $2,750 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $2,750 HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listed for Rent $2,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-03 Rental Removed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listed for Rent $3,200 HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listed $430,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $430,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Rental Removed $2,750 HARMLS
• 2023-08-12 Price Changed $2,750 HARMLS
• 2023-08-02 Price Changed $2,800 HARMLS
• 2023-07-11 Listed for Rent $3,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-10 Listed $465,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-03-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-03-06 Listed $465,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-11-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-08-12 Price Changed $465,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-21 Price Changed $515,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-21 Listed $2,600 HARMLS
• 2022-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-02-05 Listed $535,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-04-01 Listed $385,000 HARMLS
• 2019-01-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-01-23 Listed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2018-08-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-06-28 Price Changed $429,000 HARMLS
• 2018-06-18 Listed $400,900 HARMLS
• 2008-01-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-06-09 Listed $286,000 HARMLS
• 2006-10-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-07-20 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2005-08-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-07-22 Listed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2004-10-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-03-10 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2004-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-01-16 Listed $279,000 HARMLS