3065 Button Willow Ave · Abilene, TX 79606

$189,000

3 bd · 5.0 ba · 1,581 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1981 6,011 sqft lot Est $253k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bed 2.5 bath, South Abilene home. Sports a 2 car garage, upstairs, fire place and more! Home is in good condition, but needs a few repairs. Priced to sell. Only $92 per square foot. This home has lots of potential. Try finding many livable 3bed 2+bath homes under $150k. Located in relatively close proximity to the Mall, shopping centers and Dyess AFB. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• New hot water heater
• Fenced backyard
• Fresh exterior paint

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward El (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 494 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.7%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.78%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3034 Broken Bough Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+1%)	2mo	$299,900	$188	77
2618 Button Willow Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,551 (-2%)	1mo	$190,000	$123	68
4701 Circle Nineteen	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,739 (+10%)	2mo	$330,000	$190	62
4633 Plover Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-5%)	3mo	$174,900	$117	58
4618 Bruce Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+3%)	2mo	$250,000	$154	57
2941 Red Oak Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,811 (+14%)	2mo	$289,000	$160	56
2517 Button Willow Pkwy	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+12%)	0mo	$239,900	$136	50
3542 Paint Brush Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-2%)	2mo	$272,500	$176	50
2634 Robertson Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,644 (+4%)	2mo	$235,000	$143	48
5201 Sherbrooke Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+9%)	1mo	$299,000	$173	46
5217 Shady Glen Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,363 (-14%)	2mo	$260,000	$191	46
4673 Pamela Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+10%)	3mo	$209,900	$121	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $21,404
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $129,049
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79606

• Rents YoY: 40.7%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,505 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$301 /mo · $3,610/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,735

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4925 Greenslope Dr Unit C Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	13d	1	0.05mi
3134 Winterhawk Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,795	$1.55	7d	1	0.30mi
2510 Gilmer Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,995	$1.52	43d	1	0.51mi
3826 Crest Way Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,695	$1.57	43d	1	0.67mi
2701 S 40th St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,995	$1.67	21d	1	1.04mi
5733 Legacy Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$5,000	$2.71	4d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2025-09-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-10
   status Active
3. 2025-04-01
   price $189,000
4. 2025-03-03
   listed $195,000 Active
5. 2023-10-18
   soldstatus
6. 2023-10-10
   soldstatus Closed 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   3 bed 2.5 bath, South Abilene home. Sports a 2 car garage, upstairs, fire place and more! Home is in good condition, but needs a few repairs. Priced to sell. Only $92 per square foot. This home has lots of potential. Try finding many livable 3bed 2+bath homes under $150k. Located in relatively close proximity to the Mall, shopping centers and Dyess AFB. Schedule your showing today!

7. 2023-08-26
   status Pending 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   3 bed 2.5 bath, South Abilene home. Sports a 2 car garage, upstairs, fire place and more! Home is in good condition, but needs a few repairs. Priced to sell. Only $92 per square foot. This home has lots of potential. Try finding many livable 3bed 2+bath homes under $150k. Located in relatively close proximity to the Mall, shopping centers and Dyess AFB. Schedule your showing today!

8. 2023-08-19
   historical Active Option Contract 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   3 bed 2.5 bath, South Abilene home. Sports a 2 car garage, upstairs, fire place and more! Home is in good condition, but needs a few repairs. Priced to sell. Only $92 per square foot. This home has lots of potential. Try finding many livable 3bed 2+bath homes under $150k. Located in relatively close proximity to the Mall, shopping centers and Dyess AFB. Schedule your showing today!

9. 2023-08-14
   price $145,000 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   3 bed 2.5 bath, South Abilene home. Sports a 2 car garage, upstairs, fire place and more! Home is in good condition, but needs a few repairs. Priced to sell. Only $92 per square foot. This home has lots of potential. Try finding many livable 3bed 2+bath homes under $150k. Located in relatively close proximity to the Mall, shopping centers and Dyess AFB. Schedule your showing today!

10. 2023-08-14
    status Active 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    3 bed 2.5 bath, South Abilene home. Sports a 2 car garage, upstairs, fire place and more! Home is in good condition, but needs a few repairs. Priced to sell. Only $92 per square foot. This home has lots of potential. Try finding many livable 3bed 2+bath homes under $150k. Located in relatively close proximity to the Mall, shopping centers and Dyess AFB. Schedule your showing today!

11. 2023-01-25
    price $165,000 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    3 bed 2.5 bath, South Abilene home. Sports a 2 car garage, upstairs, fire place and more! Home is in good condition, but needs a few repairs. Priced to sell. Only $92 per square foot. This home has lots of potential. Try finding many livable 3bed 2+bath homes under $150k. Located in relatively close proximity to the Mall, shopping centers and Dyess AFB. Schedule your showing today!

12. 2023-01-16
    price $169,900 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    3 bed 2.5 bath, South Abilene home. Sports a 2 car garage, upstairs, fire place and more! Home is in good condition, but needs a few repairs. Priced to sell. Only $92 per square foot. This home has lots of potential. Try finding many livable 3bed 2+bath homes under $150k. Located in relatively close proximity to the Mall, shopping centers and Dyess AFB. Schedule your showing today!

13. 2023-01-03
    listed $175,000 Active 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    3 bed 2.5 bath, South Abilene home. Sports a 2 car garage, upstairs, fire place and more! Home is in good condition, but needs a few repairs. Priced to sell. Only $92 per square foot. This home has lots of potential. Try finding many livable 3bed 2+bath homes under $150k. Located in relatively close proximity to the Mall, shopping centers and Dyess AFB. Schedule your showing today!

14. 2016-02-11
    soldstatus
15. 2016-02-10
    soldstatus Sold 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    CLEAN 3 BED, 2 1-2 BATH, 2 CAR GARAGE SOUTH SIDE HOME. MINUTES FROM THE MALL, DYESS, AND SCHOOLS. LARGE LIVING ROOM, WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, BREAKFAST DINING AND CLEAN KITCHEN. LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT, SEPARATE UTILITY ROOM, LARGE 2 CAR GARAGE WITH STORAGE ROOM, COVERED PATIO AND GREAT BACKYARD. MOVE-IN READY. BRING YOUR OFFER TODAY!

16. 2016-01-15
    status Pending 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    CLEAN 3 BED, 2 1-2 BATH, 2 CAR GARAGE SOUTH SIDE HOME. MINUTES FROM THE MALL, DYESS, AND SCHOOLS. LARGE LIVING ROOM, WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, BREAKFAST DINING AND CLEAN KITCHEN. LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT, SEPARATE UTILITY ROOM, LARGE 2 CAR GARAGE WITH STORAGE ROOM, COVERED PATIO AND GREAT BACKYARD. MOVE-IN READY. BRING YOUR OFFER TODAY!

17. 2015-12-18
    historical Active Option Contract 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    CLEAN 3 BED, 2 1-2 BATH, 2 CAR GARAGE SOUTH SIDE HOME. MINUTES FROM THE MALL, DYESS, AND SCHOOLS. LARGE LIVING ROOM, WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, BREAKFAST DINING AND CLEAN KITCHEN. LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT, SEPARATE UTILITY ROOM, LARGE 2 CAR GARAGE WITH STORAGE ROOM, COVERED PATIO AND GREAT BACKYARD. MOVE-IN READY. BRING YOUR OFFER TODAY!

18. 2015-12-04
    listed $129,900 Active 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    CLEAN 3 BED, 2 1-2 BATH, 2 CAR GARAGE SOUTH SIDE HOME. MINUTES FROM THE MALL, DYESS, AND SCHOOLS. LARGE LIVING ROOM, WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, BREAKFAST DINING AND CLEAN KITCHEN. LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT, SEPARATE UTILITY ROOM, LARGE 2 CAR GARAGE WITH STORAGE ROOM, COVERED PATIO AND GREAT BACKYARD. MOVE-IN READY. BRING YOUR OFFER TODAY!

19. 2014-09-28
    historical
20. 2014-05-22
    listed $129,900 Active
21. 2014-04-17
    soldstatus
22. 1985-01-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,610 · $301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,610 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$3,610
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,404
• − Management: −$2,404
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $4,606
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,105
• After-tax cash flow: $6,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,182
• Household income: $79,196
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.33%
• Current HPI: 179.2555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.73%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+45.5% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-09-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-03 Listed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-08-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-08-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-08-14 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2023-08-14 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-01-25 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-16 Price Changed $169,900 NTREIS
• 2023-01-03 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2016-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-01-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-12-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-12-04 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2014-09-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2014-05-22 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2014-04-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,610 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.