837 Lackey Dr · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31206

$25,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1951 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HANDYMAN SPECIAL. GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO RENOVATE. GREAT OPPOTUNITY FOR A FLIP OR TO RENOVATE AND ADD TO RENTAL PORTFOLIO. "AS-IS" SALE. CASH ONLY.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 4 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Cap rate 43.1% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ingram/Pye Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,228 statewide, top 100%, 453 students, 100% FRL); Ballard Hudson Middle School (math 4% / reading 9%, grade F, #457 of 470 statewide, top 98%, 744 students, 100% FRL); Southwest High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #365 of 424 statewide, top 88%, 800 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,183/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1335% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $25,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 131.38%
• DSCR: 6.85
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,872
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2752 Antioch Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,728 (+1%)	2mo	$10,000	$6	65
1047 Newberg Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,773 (+4%)	10mo	$154,900	$87	65
673 Villa Esta Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-6%)	4mo	$139,900	$87	60
2758 Houston Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,922 (+13%)	3mo	$25,000	$13	58
587 Robert Henry St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,466 (-14%)	7mo	$148,000	$101	56
643 Heard Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,554 (-9%)	14mo	$89,864	$58	56
3896 Tela Pl	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,691 (-1%)	13mo	$115,000	$68	51
2641 Florence Ave S	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,504 (-12%)	5mo	$14,000	$9	48
748 Ell St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,760 (+3%)	12mo	$16,500	$9	48
966 W Grenada Ter	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-14%)	12mo	$101,500	$69	44
573 Villa Esta Cir	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,524 (-11%)	8mo	$132,000	$87	42
3866 Myrtle Ct	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,515 (-11%)	8mo	$40,000	$26	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $47,239
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.37×
• Total profit: $114,591
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31206

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $321/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $213

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $781	-5% $773	+0% $766	+5% $759	+10% $752
Rent	-10% $673	-5% $720	+0% $766	+5% $813	+10% $860
Rate	-1.0pp $779	-0.5pp $773	base $766	+0.5pp $760	+1.0pp $753

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
645 Rutherford Ave Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1481	$1,395	$0.94	45d	1	0.27mi
520 Nelson St Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1208	$1,225	$1.01	15d	1	0.52mi
3238 Somerset Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$975	$0.89	15d	1	0.56mi
3709 Flamingo Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1360	$1,300	$0.96	45d	1	0.60mi
1164 Newberg Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	45d	1	0.62mi
495 Pittman St Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1324	$995	$0.75	45d	1	0.66mi
1148 N Beddingfield Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1076	$825	$0.77	45d	1	0.71mi
846 Bedingfield Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1187	$975	$0.82	45d	1	0.71mi
3080 Rice Mill Rd Unit C-1 Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1100	$925	$0.84	22d	1	0.82mi
3080 Rice Mill Rd Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$950	$0.86	45d	1	0.82mi
322 Pittman St Unit B Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1920	$985	$0.51	45d	1	0.82mi
832 Richmond St Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1364	$925	$0.68	22d	1	0.82mi
806 Armory Dr Unit B Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$975	$0.89	45d	1	0.85mi
672 Bowden St Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1076	$900	$0.84	22d	1	0.86mi
4052 Mikado Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1624	$1,300	$0.80	15d	1	0.93mi
3685 Rice Mill Rd Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,450	$1.26	45d	1	1.02mi
1575 Winston Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,350	$1.11	22d	1	1.07mi
947 Troupe St Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	1699	$1,200	$0.71	22d	1	1.08mi
947 Troupe St Unit B Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	1699	$1,200	$0.71	45d	1	1.08mi
4011 Marion Ave Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	22d	1	1.10mi
1240 Rocky Creek Rd Unit A Macon, GA	4.0	1.0	1342	$1,090	$0.81	22d	1	1.15mi
1289 Rocky Creek Rd Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1404	$750	$0.53	45d	1	1.21mi
3837 Spencer Cir Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,300	$1.20	45d	1	1.23mi
1635 2nd St Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,500	$1.29	45d	1	1.28mi
738 Liberty St Unit 738 Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1378	$989	$0.72	22d	1	1.35mi
738 Liberty St Unit 730 Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1376	$680	$0.49	22d	1	1.35mi
1332 Hillridge Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,050	$1.00	15d	1	1.37mi
4322 Mikado Ave Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,230	$0.92	22d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-03-26
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-03-12
   listed $25,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $321 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $321 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$321
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,136
• − Management: −$1,136
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $9,352
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,244
• After-tax cash flow: $6,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,310
• Household income: $30,042
• Rent vs Own: 56.5% rent · 43.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1335.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% White 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.17%
• Current HPI: 148.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-26 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-03-12 Listed $25,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $321 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.