2340 Fairway Dr · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$1,600,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · — sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $1588k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Situated on the 17th hole of North Fork Country Club this home is located in the sought-after Fairway Farms Association. This 5-bedroom, 4-bath residence sits on a private . 93-acre lot less than 2 miles from New Suffolk Beach and just 0.5 miles to Cutchogue Village, offering close proximity to North Fork wineries, farm stands, waterfront dining, and beaches. The main level features a first-floor primary suite, two additional bedrooms, two full baths, and two fireplaces. Multiple living spaces include a spacious living room, formal dining area, separate den, and an oversized sunroom, ideal for entertaining or year-round relaxation. The second floor offers two additional bedrooms and a full

Key facts

• Salt water pool
• Built 1986
• Listed 14 days

Tags

• SALT WATER POOL
• BACKYARD FACE NORTH FORK CC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1986
• Exterior features: Located in the North Fork subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($87k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $1.60M).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 7.3% in Cutchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $171k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $160k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $448k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$275k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $350k; list at $1.60M implies a 357% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,600,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.32%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,587,634
• List price: $1,600,000
• Delta: -0.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 Green Way	0.10mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,000	8mo	$1,625,000	$542	69
2700 Fairway Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,800	11mo	$1,675,000	$598	68
26705 Main Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,612	7mo	$700,000	$268	51
600 Praity Ln	0.28mi	4/3.0 (-1)	—	24mo	$1,400,000	—	46
555 Alvahs Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,100	17mo	$1,020,000	$486	40
860 Griffing St	0.67mi	5/3.0	3,326	15mo	$1,335,000	$401	39
1760 Crown Land Ln	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,246	11mo	$1,515,000	$675	37
12120 New Suffolk Ave	0.73mi	6/6.5 (+1)	7,500	8mo	$11,200,000	$1,493	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $1,330,659
• Equity at exit: $1,441,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.94×
• Total profit: $3,557,026
• Equity at exit: $3,108,448

Cash invested: $448,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $22,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,391
• Tax from tax record: −$1,228 /mo · $14,736/yr
• Insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,651
• Net cashflow: $7,213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,019

Max offer price $1,600,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8,119	-5% $7,666	+0% $7,213	+5% $6,760	+10% $6,307
Rent	-10% $5,463	-5% $6,338	+0% $7,213	+5% $8,088	+10% $8,963
Rate	-1.0pp $8,019	-0.5pp $7,620	base $7,213	+0.5pp $6,798	+1.0pp $6,377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $400,000
• Closing costs: $48,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1100 Alvahs Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2400	$24,200	$10.08	44d	1	0.57mi
935 Southern Cross Rd Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	—	$22,500	—	44d	1	1.02mi
19000 Main Rd Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	44d	1	1.35mi
600 Harbor Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	3.0	—	$24,000	—	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on marketlisting id $1,600,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,580,000 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,580,000 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,580,000 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,580,000 Active 193 DOM
15. 2025-11-19
    listed $1,580,000 Active 1467-char remark
16. 1996-12-18
    soldstatus $350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,736 · $1,228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,888 · $1,741/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,152/yr (+$513/mo · 41.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $265,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,625
• − Property taxes: −$14,736
• − Insurance: −$8,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$21,264
• − Management: −$21,264
• − Depreciation: −$46,545
• Taxable income: $64,362
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15,447
• After-tax cash flow: $71,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• City population: 2,946
• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+357.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $1,600,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-06-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Listed $1,580,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,736 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.