220 E Shore Dr · Birchwood Lakes, PA 18328

$169,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1975 $126/sqft · 27% below area Est $233k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pocono Mountain ranch home across street from the lake, 3bed, 1bath, built 1975, 1336sqft. Paved driveway, 1/4 acre property. HOA: Birchwood lakes is a quiet residential community with 4lakes, swimming pool, basketball and tennis courts. Area: Located 1 mile from the scenic Delaware water gap recreation area. and walking distance from the beautiful childs park waterfalls. 2 miles from supermarket. 5 miles from NJ border/dingmans ferry bridge and Delaware river. If you like the outdoors this area has plenty of hiking, wildlife, fishing, hunting, boating, canoeing, rafting, bike riding, great fall foliage, sightseeing, etc. You will see deer, turkey, woodpeckers, hawks, many kinds of birds, fox and sometimes black bear and bald eagles. 220 E Shore Dr Dingmans Ferry PA 18328. Pike county PA. Birchwood lakes dues $1500 per year Taxes $3588 per year For sale by owner Agents welcomed or call direct and save commissions$$$ Please leave a message if interested I will call back. Have a great day and happy house hunting! Owner. Call 908 277-4199 Landline

Key facts

• 4 lakes
• Paved driveway
• 1/4 acre property

Tags

• POCONO MOUNTAIN RANCH HOME
• ACROSS STREET FROM THE LAKE
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• 1/4 ACRE PROPERTY
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL COMMUNITY
• 4 LAKES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.7% in Birchwood Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,407 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $169k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $169,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.95%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,607
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -27.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Outer Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,272 (-5%)	11mo	$180,000	$142	72
117 West Shore Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,308 (-2%)	10mo	$245,000	$187	64
111 Metzger Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+6%)	8mo	$260,000	$184	54
108 Chestnut St	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (-14%)	13mo	$190,000	$165	52
103 Holly Ln	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-6%)	14mo	$235,000	$187	47
107 Metzger Trl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+11%)	8mo	$286,000	$193	45
125 E Shore Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-14%)	8mo	$280,000	$245	43
179 Tulip St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-12%)	6mo	$230,000	$196	39
233 Silver Lake Rd	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,492 (+12%)	20mo	$265,000	$178	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $114,593
• Equity at exit: $152,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.76×
• Total profit: $319,958
• Equity at exit: $328,330

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,036 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,588/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,589

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $401	+0% $353	+5% $305	+10% $257
Rent	-10% $192	-5% $272	+0% $353	+5% $433	+10% $514
Rate	-1.0pp $438	-0.5pp $396	base $353	+0.5pp $309	+1.0pp $264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on marketlisting id $169,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $169,000 Active 91 DOM

    Show marketing remark (1063 chars)

    Pocono Mountain ranch home across street from the lake, 3bed, 1bath, built 1975, 1336sqft. Paved driveway, 1/4 acre property. HOA: Birchwood lakes is a quiet residential community with 4lakes, swimming pool, basketball and tennis courts. Area: Located 1 mile from the scenic Delaware water gap recreation area. and walking distance from the beautiful childs park waterfalls. 2 miles from supermarket. 5 miles from NJ border/dingmans ferry bridge and Delaware river. If you like the outdoors this area has plenty of hiking, wildlife, fishing, hunting, boating, canoeing, rafting, bike riding, great fall foliage, sightseeing, etc. You will see deer, turkey, woodpeckers, hawks, many kinds of birds, fox and sometimes black bear and bald eagles. 220 E Shore Dr Dingmans Ferry PA 18328. Pike county PA. Birchwood lakes dues $1500 per year Taxes $3588 per year For sale by owner Agents welcomed or call direct and save commissions$$$ Please leave a message if interested I will call back. Have a great day and happy house hunting! Owner. Call 908 277-4199 Landline

12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-03-05
    listed $199,000 Active 1063-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1063 chars)

    Pocono Mountain ranch home across street from the lake, 3bed, 1bath, built 1975, 1336sqft. Paved driveway, 1/4 acre property. HOA: Birchwood lakes is a quiet residential community with 4lakes, swimming pool, basketball and tennis courts. Area: Located 1 mile from the scenic Delaware water gap recreation area. and walking distance from the beautiful childs park waterfalls. 2 miles from supermarket. 5 miles from NJ border/dingmans ferry bridge and Delaware river. If you like the outdoors this area has plenty of hiking, wildlife, fishing, hunting, boating, canoeing, rafting, bike riding, great fall foliage, sightseeing, etc. You will see deer, turkey, woodpeckers, hawks, many kinds of birds, fox and sometimes black bear and bald eagles. 220 E Shore Dr Dingmans Ferry PA 18328. Pike county PA. Birchwood lakes dues $1500 per year Taxes $3588 per year For sale by owner Agents welcomed or call direct and save commissions$$$ Please leave a message if interested I will call back. Have a great day and happy house hunting! Owner. Call 908 277-4199 Landline

17. 2019-10-08
    soldstatus 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    A ranch just a short walk to sandy beach on clear mountain lake. Home has seasonal lake views and features include full kitchen with appliances, separate dining room, very spacious living room with hardwood flooring, 3 big bedrooms, Full Bath, high crawl with concrete floor. New roof, new septic tank. A really nice house and a very good value!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y, Eating Area: Dining Area

18. 2019-10-08
    soldstatus $69,900

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    A ranch just a short walk to sandy beach on clear mountain lake. Home has seasonal lake views and features include full kitchen with appliances, separate dining room, very spacious living room with hardwood flooring, 3 big bedrooms, Full Bath, high crawl with concrete floor. New roof, new septic tank. A really nice house and a very good value!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y, Eating Area: Dining Area

19. 2019-10-08
    soldstatus $69,900

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    A ranch just a short walk to sandy beach on clear mountain lake. Home has seasonal lake views and features include full kitchen with appliances, separate dining room, very spacious living room with hardwood flooring, 3 big bedrooms, Full Bath, high crawl with concrete floor. New roof, new septic tank. A really nice house and a very good value!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y, Eating Area: Dining Area

20. 2019-10-08
    soldstatus $69,900

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    A ranch just a short walk to sandy beach on clear mountain lake. Home has seasonal lake views and features include full kitchen with appliances, separate dining room, very spacious living room with hardwood flooring, 3 big bedrooms, Full Bath, high crawl with concrete floor. New roof, new septic tank. A really nice house and a very good value!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y, Eating Area: Dining Area

21. 2016-06-25
    listed $69,900 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    A ranch just a short walk to sandy beach on clear mountain lake. Home has seasonal lake views and features include full kitchen with appliances, separate dining room, very spacious living room with hardwood flooring, 3 big bedrooms, Full Bath, high crawl with concrete floor. New roof, new septic tank. A really nice house and a very good value!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y, Eating Area: Dining Area

22. 2016-06-25
    listed $69,900

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    A ranch just a short walk to sandy beach on clear mountain lake. Home has seasonal lake views and features include full kitchen with appliances, separate dining room, very spacious living room with hardwood flooring, 3 big bedrooms, Full Bath, high crawl with concrete floor. New roof, new septic tank. A really nice house and a very good value!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y, Eating Area: Dining Area

23. 2016-06-25
    listed $69,900

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    A ranch just a short walk to sandy beach on clear mountain lake. Home has seasonal lake views and features include full kitchen with appliances, separate dining room, very spacious living room with hardwood flooring, 3 big bedrooms, Full Bath, high crawl with concrete floor. New roof, new septic tank. A really nice house and a very good value!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y, Eating Area: Dining Area

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,588 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,588 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$3,588
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $1,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$410
• After-tax cash flow: $3,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Birchwood Lakes

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1407
• US rank: #17785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birchwood Lakes, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+141.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $169,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $169,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-03-05 Listed $199,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2019-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 2019-10-08 Sold (MLS) $69,900 PWMLS
• 2019-10-08 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2019-10-08 Sold (MLS) $69,900 PWMLS
• 2016-06-25 Listed $69,900 PWMLS
• 2016-06-25 Listed $69,900 PWMLS
• 2016-06-25 Listed $69,900 PWMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,588 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.