2902 E Bates St · Lubbock, TX 79403

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,254 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1959 8,190 sqft lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located off Parkway Dr. This is a 3 bedroom, 1 bath home sitting on a corner lot. Close to Loop 289 and shopping. The seller has poured extra concrete on the side of the house to extend the drive way.

Key facts

• Extend the drive way
• Close to loop 289
• Extra concrete

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• EXTRA CONCRETE
• EXTEND THE DRIVE WAY
• CLOSE TO LOOP 289
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.82%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-1,686
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $10,884
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79403

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,527/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $806

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2912 E Baylor St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$695	$0.59	21d	1	0.10mi
2912 E Baylor St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$900	$0.77	43d	1	0.10mi
2612 E Auburn St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1196	$1,095	$0.92	21d	1	0.22mi
2924 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,150	$0.92	21d	1	0.23mi
2624 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,330	$1.02	13d	1	0.26mi
3116 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,150	$1.02	21d	1	0.27mi
2608 E Colgate St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	990	$900	$0.91	43d	1	0.27mi
3118 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,150	$1.02	21d	1	0.27mi
306 Zenith Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,165	$0.90	21d	1	0.28mi
310 Zenith Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,164	$0.90	13d	1	0.28mi
1933 E Colgate St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1310	$795	$0.61	21d	1	0.36mi
3305 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,000	$0.60	13d	1	0.36mi
2721 E 3rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	13d	1	0.41mi
3016 E 3rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$695	$0.71	21d	1	0.42mi
1918 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,080	$1.05	21d	1	0.46mi
1828 E 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1011	$695	$0.69	21d	1	0.48mi
1808 E Auburn St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	21d	1	0.57mi
411 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,200	$1.00	13d	1	0.59mi
1809 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1203	$1,000	$0.83	43d	1	0.61mi
1730 E Dartmouth St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1015	$695	$0.68	43d	1	0.63mi
1726 E Dartmouth St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	21d	1	0.65mi
1726 E Dartmouth St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	43d	1	0.65mi
1802 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1096	$875	$0.80	43d	1	0.66mi
1802 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1096	$695	$0.63	21d	1	0.66mi
1711 E 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	21d	1	0.71mi
3611 E 3rd Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,199	$1.04	43d	1	0.76mi
602 Walnut Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	43d	1	0.78mi
1702 E Dartmouth St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	21d	1	0.78mi
804 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,049	$1.02	13d	1	0.83mi
1014 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,030	$1.00	13d	1	0.92mi
924 E Emory St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,008	$1.17	13d	8	0.96mi
2211 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	43d	1	1.06mi
2226 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	43d	1	1.06mi
2206 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$975	$0.85	44d	1	1.09mi
2123 E Broadway Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	21d	1	1.10mi
2117 E Broadway Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	43d	1	1.10mi
1516 E 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	21d	1	1.14mi
3411 E 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	21d	1	1.39mi
1903 E 15th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	13d	1	1.39mi
3621 E 15th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,114	$1.08	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $90,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $90,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $90,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $90,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-03-12
   price $90,000 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   Located off Parkway Dr. This is a 3 bedroom, 1 bath home sitting on a corner lot. Close to Loop 289 and shopping. The seller has poured extra concrete on the side of the house to extend the drive way.

8. 2026-02-05
   soldstatus
9. 2025-12-05
   listed $100,000 Active 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   Located off Parkway Dr. This is a 3 bedroom, 1 bath home sitting on a corner lot. Close to Loop 289 and shopping. The seller has poured extra concrete on the side of the house to extend the drive way.

10. 2025-12-05
    price $100,000

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    Located off Parkway Dr. This is a 3 bedroom, 1 bath home sitting on a corner lot. Close to Loop 289 and shopping. The seller has poured extra concrete on the side of the house to extend the drive way.

11. 2022-11-08
    price $60,000
12. 2022-11-03
    soldstatus Closed
13. 2022-10-26
    status Pending
14. 2022-10-17
    price $62,000
15. 2022-09-23
    status Active
16. 2022-09-23
    price $65,000
17. 2022-09-12
    status Pending
18. 2022-09-04
    price $73,000
19. 2022-08-09
    price $79,000
20. 2022-07-22
    price $89,999
21. 2022-07-01
    listed $100,000 Active
22. 2015-03-02
    soldstatus
23. 2015-03-02
    soldstatus
24. 1985-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,527 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$120/yr (+$10/mo · 7.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,527
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,050
• − Management: −$1,050
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,388
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$333
• After-tax cash flow: $2,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,089
• Household income: $47,907
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 26% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.69%
• Current HPI: 178.9297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $90,000 LARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-05 Listed $100,000 LARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $100,000 LARMLS
• 2022-11-08 Price Changed $60,000 LARMLS
• 2022-11-03 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2022-10-26 Pending — LARMLS
• 2022-10-17 Price Changed $62,000 LARMLS
• 2022-09-23 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2022-09-23 Price Changed $65,000 LARMLS
• 2022-09-12 Pending — LARMLS
• 2022-09-04 Price Changed $73,000 LARMLS
• 2022-08-09 Price Changed $79,000 LARMLS
• 2022-07-22 Price Changed $89,999 LARMLS
• 2022-07-01 Listed $100,000 LARMLS
• 2015-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,527 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.