503 Elm St · Winchester, TN 37398

$79,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,139 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1940 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 story home, Fenced back yard, Screened in front porch. Separate garage. Property being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Cap rate 24.4% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#149 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities D-.
• Franklin County (town): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #111 of 139 in TN (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clark Memorial School (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #637 of 952 statewide, top 68%, 489 students, 0% FRL); Franklin Co High School (math 5% / reading 22%, grade F, #255 of 332 statewide, top 77%, 1,180 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $79k implies a 427% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.65%
• DSCR: 3.88
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,715
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
706 N Vine St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,086 (-5%)	4mo	$180,000	$166	80
716 N Cedar St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-4%)	3mo	$154,900	$142	77
506 6th Ave NW	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-12%)	2mo	$165,000	$164	75
810 Lynwood St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-2%)	9mo	$180,000	$161	71
97 Troy Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,214 (+7%)	1mo	$287,850	$237	66
196 Brookfield Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,194 (+5%)	6mo	$313,000	$262	62
512 N Vine St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+13%)	3mo	$242,500	$188	62
115 7th Ave NE	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,308 (+15%)	3mo	$172,000	$131	54
114 11th Ave NW	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	5mo	$235,000	$226	52
104 3rd Ave NW	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	999 (-12%)	11mo	$185,000	$185	48
75 Troy Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,282 (+13%)	12mo	$250,000	$195	46
117 11th Ave NW	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,003 (-12%)	13mo	$180,000	$179	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $63,096
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.90×
• Total profit: $152,667
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37398

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $515/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $1,192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $620

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,236	-5% $1,214	+0% $1,192	+5% $1,169	+10% $1,147
Rent	-10% $1,024	-5% $1,108	+0% $1,192	+5% $1,276	+10% $1,360
Rate	-1.0pp $1,231	-0.5pp $1,212	base $1,192	+0.5pp $1,171	+1.0pp $1,150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2024-08-15
   status Pending
2. 2024-08-10
   listed $79,000 Active
3. 2001-01-26
   soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $515 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $561 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$515
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,044
• − Management: −$2,044
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $13,826
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,318
• After-tax cash flow: $10,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 4701290
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,108
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9094
• State rank: #111 of 139 in TN

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #13341

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, TN
• Population (ZIP): 15,712

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,858 people
• By 2030: 43,540 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 44,623 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 45,523 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 48,954 · +14.2%
• By 2100: 50,170 · +17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.2) · D 23.0% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -53.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.2 2020: R+47.7 2016: R+43.7 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.03%
• Current HPI: 333.839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+426.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-15 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-10 Listed $79,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $515 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.