904 W Shepherd · Denison, TX 75020

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,246 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 273 Days on market

Built 1924 7,501 sqft lot $100/sqft · 37% below area Est $198k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 1 bath Craftsman-style home built in 1924. This property features original character and a functional layout, ready for updates and personal touches. Located in Denison, Grayson County, just 75 miles north of Dallas and only a few miles from the Texas–Oklahoma border. The home benefits from Denison’s small-town charm, historic streets, easy access to downtown shopping, dining & entertainment, and proximity to Lake Texoma recreation. This property also includes a cellar with exterior access, providing extra storage or storm shelter potential. Great opportunity for those looking to renovate or restore a classic home in a desirable North Texas community.

Key facts

• Original character
• Craftsman-style home
• Small-town charm

Tags

• CRAFTSMAN-STYLE HOME
• ORIGINAL CHARACTER
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SMALL-TOWN CHARM
• HISTORIC STREETS
• EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($427/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Denison ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #315 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 485 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,639
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -36.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1107 W Hull St	0.27mi	2/1.0	1,280 (+3%)	0mo	$135,000	$105	82
925 W Nelson St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,168 (-6%)	1mo	$87,500	$75	75
1231 W Woodard St	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,257 (+1%)	2mo	$150,000	$119	69
1213 W Morgan St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,336 (+7%)	1mo	$99,000	$74	66
811 W Woodard St	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,202 (-4%)	0mo	$199,000	$166	66
1029 W Hull St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (+10%)	1mo	$230,000	$167	62
1130 W Heron St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,179 (-5%)	1mo	$207,000	$176	62
614 W Owings St	0.33mi	2/1.0	1,422 (+14%)	2mo	$90,000	$63	59
1326 W Sears St	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,318 (+6%)	2mo	$118,900	$90	54
1328 W Woodard St	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,365 (+10%)	2mo	$149,000	$109	49
401 N Mirick Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,313 (+5%)	1mo	$209,000	$159	48
326 W Day St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,406 (+13%)	0mo	$265,000	$188	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-21,773
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-30,651
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75020

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 485
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$328 /mo · $3,932/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,310

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
921 W Day St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,500	$1.24	44d	1	0.10mi
1022 W Shepherd St #1022 Denison, TX	3.0	2.5	1322	$1,450	$1.10	21d	1	0.15mi
817 W Owing St Denison, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	21d	1	0.21mi
820 W Crawford St Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	996	$1,250	$1.26	21d	1	0.25mi
1011 S Armstrong Ave Unit A Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.29mi
1120 W Owing St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,225	$1.12	21d	1	0.30mi
610 W Owing St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,395	$1.26	44d	1	0.30mi
626 W Crawford St Unit 101 Denison, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$950	$1.00	21d	1	0.32mi
410 S Mirick Ave Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	44d	1	0.32mi
818 W Texas St Denison, TX	3.0	1.0	720	$1,100	$1.53	21d	1	0.33mi
1131 W Owing St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,695	$1.49	44d	1	0.33mi
526 W Munson St Unit 2 Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	778	$999	$1.28	44d	1	0.34mi
526 W Munson St Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	778	$849	$1.09	21d	2	0.34mi
626 W Chestnut St Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	1132	$1,300	$1.15	21d	1	0.37mi
715 W Chestnut St Denison, TX	2.0	2.0	1273	$1,300	$1.02	44d	1	0.37mi
411 S Fannin Ave #411 Denison, TX	3.0	2.5	1322	$1,450	$1.10	21d	1	0.38mi
1311 W Day St Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	1188	$1,050	$0.88	21d	1	0.40mi
1011 S Perry Ave Denison, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,350	$1.25	44d	1	0.40mi
412 W Day St Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	21d	1	0.42mi
404 W Day St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	21d	1	0.44mi
1004 W Gandy St Denison, TX	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,299	$1.04	21d	1	0.53mi
1231 W Main St Denison, TX	2.0	1.5	1203	$1,575	$1.31	21d	1	0.53mi
1016 W Gandy St #4 Denison, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.53mi
108 N Eddy Ave Denison, TX	1.0	1.0	882	$1,100	$1.25	44d	1	0.54mi
617 W Gandy St Unit 3 Denison, TX	2.0	2.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	44d	1	0.59mi
224 W Hull St Unit A Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	743	$1,250	$1.68	44d	1	0.62mi
224 W Hull St Unit B Denison, TX	1.0	1.0	743	$999	$1.34	44d	1	0.62mi
317 W Main St Unit 202 Denison, TX	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	44d	1	0.64mi
317 W Main St #203 Denison, TX	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	0.64mi
731 W Morton St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,500	$1.16	44d	1	0.71mi
1326 W Sears St Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	1318	$1,350	$1.02	21d	1	0.73mi
1225 W Hanna St Denison, TX	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,600	$1.07	44d	1	0.74mi
740 W Bullock St Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	21d	1	0.76mi
105 E Hull St Denison, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.77mi
731 W Bond St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,595	$1.23	21d	1	0.78mi
725 W Brock St Denison, TX	3.0	1.5	1349	$1,450	$1.07	21d	1	0.79mi
114 E Hull St Denison, TX	2.0	2.0	1279	$1,450	$1.13	44d	1	0.80mi
1527 S Austin Ave Denison, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	850	$999	$1.18	21d	2	0.84mi
120 E Monterey St Unit 120 Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	44d	1	0.87mi
320 W Bond St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,500	$1.17	44d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 272 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 269 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 266 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 256 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 255 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 254 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 253 DOM
18. 2026-04-22
    status Active 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath Craftsman-style home built in 1924. This property features original character and a functional layout, ready for updates and personal touches. Located in Denison, Grayson County, just 75 miles north of Dallas and only a few miles from the Texas–Oklahoma border. The home benefits from Denison’s small-town charm, historic streets, easy access to downtown shopping, dining & entertainment, and proximity to Lake Texoma recreation. This property also includes a cellar with exterior access, providing extra storage or storm shelter potential. Great opportunity for those looking to renovate or restore a classic home in a desirable North Texas community.

19. 2026-04-17
    historical Active Option Contract 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath Craftsman-style home built in 1924. This property features original character and a functional layout, ready for updates and personal touches. Located in Denison, Grayson County, just 75 miles north of Dallas and only a few miles from the Texas–Oklahoma border. The home benefits from Denison’s small-town charm, historic streets, easy access to downtown shopping, dining & entertainment, and proximity to Lake Texoma recreation. This property also includes a cellar with exterior access, providing extra storage or storm shelter potential. Great opportunity for those looking to renovate or restore a classic home in a desirable North Texas community.

20. 2026-03-09
    price $125,000 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath Craftsman-style home built in 1924. This property features original character and a functional layout, ready for updates and personal touches. Located in Denison, Grayson County, just 75 miles north of Dallas and only a few miles from the Texas–Oklahoma border. The home benefits from Denison’s small-town charm, historic streets, easy access to downtown shopping, dining & entertainment, and proximity to Lake Texoma recreation. This property also includes a cellar with exterior access, providing extra storage or storm shelter potential. Great opportunity for those looking to renovate or restore a classic home in a desirable North Texas community.

21. 2025-11-14
    price $148,000 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath Craftsman-style home built in 1924. This property features original character and a functional layout, ready for updates and personal touches. Located in Denison, Grayson County, just 75 miles north of Dallas and only a few miles from the Texas–Oklahoma border. The home benefits from Denison’s small-town charm, historic streets, easy access to downtown shopping, dining & entertainment, and proximity to Lake Texoma recreation. This property also includes a cellar with exterior access, providing extra storage or storm shelter potential. Great opportunity for those looking to renovate or restore a classic home in a desirable North Texas community.

22. 2025-09-18
    listed $150,000 Active 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath Craftsman-style home built in 1924. This property features original character and a functional layout, ready for updates and personal touches. Located in Denison, Grayson County, just 75 miles north of Dallas and only a few miles from the Texas–Oklahoma border. The home benefits from Denison’s small-town charm, historic streets, easy access to downtown shopping, dining & entertainment, and proximity to Lake Texoma recreation. This property also includes a cellar with exterior access, providing extra storage or storm shelter potential. Great opportunity for those looking to renovate or restore a classic home in a desirable North Texas community.

23. 2025-03-02
    price $190,000
24. 2024-11-08
    listed $199,900 Active
25. 2022-05-03
    soldstatus
26. 2022-05-02
    soldstatus Closed
27. 2022-04-13
    status Pending
28. 2022-04-09
    historical Active Option Contract
29. 2022-03-29
    listed $185,000 Active
30. 2019-11-05
    soldstatus
31. 2019-11-04
    soldstatus Sold
32. 2019-09-26
    status Pending
33. 2019-09-15
    historical Active Option Contract
34. 2019-08-19
    price $102,000
35. 2019-08-06
    price $107,500
36. 2019-07-15
    status Active
37. 2019-07-13
    status Pending
38. 2019-07-06
    historical Active Option Contract
39. 2019-06-20
    status Active
40. 2019-06-14
    historical Active Option Contract
41. 2019-06-03
    price $107,900
42. 2019-05-03
    listed $114,500 Active
43. 2007-03-21
    soldstatus
44. 1984-07-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,932 · $328/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,932 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,932
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$368
• After-tax cash flow: $794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denison ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816710
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,650
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4629
• State rank: #315 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denison

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #5428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denison, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 34,008
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,835
• Household income: $71,605
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 997.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.96%
• Current HPI: 257.1806
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.2% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $148,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-02 Price Changed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-08 Listed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2022-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-02 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-04-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-04-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-03-29 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2019-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-11-04 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-09-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-09-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-08-19 Price Changed $102,000 NTREIS
• 2019-08-06 Price Changed $107,500 NTREIS
• 2019-07-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2019-07-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-07-06 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-06-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2019-06-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-06-03 Price Changed $107,900 NTREIS
• 2019-05-03 Listed $114,500 NTREIS
• 2007-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,932 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.