Plan 2410 Modeled Plan · Round Rock, TX 78665

$363,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,410 sqft · SingleFamily · 614 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 9-ft.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 613 days

🏗️ New construction. The $363,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $411,224.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $364k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-728 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.7% in Round Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#56 in TX, #2,184 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Hill El (math 30% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 628 students, 48% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 614 days — a 12% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,633 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 614 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.58%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $411,224
• List price: $363,995
• Delta: -11.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6629 Casiano Cv	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,459 (+2%)	1mo	$425,000	$173	65
5705 Bellissima Way	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,583 (+7%)	1mo	$425,000	$165	62
6500 Cetone Ter	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,529 (+5%)	3mo	$355,000	$140	59
4632 College Square Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,310 (-4%)	2mo	$559,990	$242	58
6340 Turin Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,263 (-6%)	1mo	$414,900	$183	56
4511 Alfano Loop	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,579 (+7%)	1mo	$410,000	$159	54
4313 Contrail Ln	0.66mi	4/4.0	2,288 (-5%)	2mo	$466,990	$204	53
5936 Bianca Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,548 (+6%)	4mo	$470,000	$184	51
6634 Verona Pl	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,605 (+8%)	3mo	$459,900	$177	50
4404 College Square Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,688 (+12%)	0mo	$584,990	$218	48
3544 De Soto Loop	0.66mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,635 (+9%)	1mo	$465,000	$176	45
6144 Teodoro Bnd	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,722 (+13%)	1mo	$424,900	$156	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-120,779
• Equity at exit: $61,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-194,989
• Equity at exit: $35,555

Cash invested: $115,143 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 67 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.7 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $464,990 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78665

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 594
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,676 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$514 /mo · $6,168/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,597

Max offer price $305,943

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-443	-5% $-585	+0% $-728	+5% $-870	+10% $-1,012
Rent	-10% $-939	-5% $-833	+0% $-728	+5% $-622	+10% $-516
Rate	-1.0pp $-520	-0.5pp $-623	base $-728	+0.5pp $-834	+1.0pp $-943

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,806
• Closing costs: $12,337
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3840 Casoria Ln Round Rock, TX	5.0	2.5	2630	$3,995	$1.52	15d	1	0.08mi
3928 Tufino Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,150	$1.31	41d	1	0.16mi
4406 Venticano Pl Round Rock, TX	5.0	2.5	3101	$2,800	$0.90	31d	1	0.16mi
4465 Acerno St Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2412	$2,400	$1.00	28d	1	0.21mi
4481 Acerno St Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2527	$2,500	$0.99	9d	1	0.23mi
3643 Sorriso Ln Round Rock, TX	5.0	3.0	3023	$2,950	$0.98	64d	1	0.42mi
5576 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$2,199	$1.34	34d	1	0.52mi
5547 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	5.0	4.0	2853	$3,995	$1.40	9d	1	0.56mi
6060 Teodoro Bnd Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1966	$2,300	$1.17	93d	1	0.57mi
6045 Teodoro Bnd Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	1855	$2,250	$1.21	41d	1	0.58mi
3914 La Contenta Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2229	$2,450	$1.10	93d	1	0.63mi
6508 Cetone Ter Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,095	$1.21	69d	1	0.64mi
4653 Alfano Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	3055	$2,750	$0.90	9d	1	0.65mi
4318 Frankfurt Ln Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2220	$3,000	$1.35	13d	1	0.67mi
6532 Cetone Ter Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,200	$1.37	16d	1	0.68mi
6513 Leonardo Cv Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,195	$1.27	47d	1	0.70mi
6650 Verona Pl Round Rock, TX	3.0	3.0	1805	$2,250	$1.25	23d	1	0.73mi
6562 Teramo Ter Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	2199	$1,999	$0.91	38d	1	0.77mi
4937 Morese Palace Trl Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2210	$2,395	$1.08	93d	1	0.77mi
3457 Francisco Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	3000	$3,000	$1.00	38d	1	0.77mi
3508 De Torres Cir Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	2203	$2,500	$1.13	57d	1	0.78mi
5900 Bucine Cv Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2802	$2,695	$0.96	52d	1	0.82mi
5900 Bucine Cv Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2802	$2,495	$0.89	17d	1	0.82mi
3308 De Torres Cir Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.5	3105	$2,900	$0.93	13d	1	0.87mi
3416 De Soto Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.0	1917	$2,500	$1.30	93d	1	0.88mi
4305 Garden Point Dr Round Rock, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1760	$2,704	$1.54	9d	13	0.88mi
5704 Corsica Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2150	$2,400	$1.12	9d	1	1.07mi
3356 Pablo Cir Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2761	$2,675	$0.97	27d	1	1.12mi
5664 Corsica Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,250	$1.16	34d	1	1.14mi
3117 Hidalgo Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2937	$3,000	$1.02	28d	1	1.18mi
3032 Angelina Ct Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1673	$2,300	$1.37	16d	1	1.27mi
3030 Isabella Ln Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.5	2903	$3,300	$1.14	35d	1	1.28mi
865 Limmer Loop Hutto, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1752	$3,324	$1.90	9d	47	1.31mi
2908 Cortes Ct Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	2646	$2,400	$0.91	60d	1	1.31mi
2908 Cortes Ct Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	2646	$2,400	$0.91	52d	1	1.31mi
3005 Angelina Ct Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,999	$1.18	35d	1	1.34mi
2971 Santa Rosita Dr Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2397	$2,650	$1.11	93d	1	1.44mi
3101 Diego Cv Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2327	$2,650	$1.14	93d	1	1.45mi
3018 Diego Dr Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2023	$2,395	$1.18	93d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $363,995 Active 614 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $363,995 Active 612 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $363,995 Active 611 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $363,995 Active 610 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $363,995 Active 609 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $363,995 Active 606 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $363,995 Active 604 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $363,995 Active 603 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $363,995 Active 601 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $363,995 Active 599 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $363,995 Active 598 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $363,995 Active 597 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $363,995 Active 596 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $363,995 Active 595 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $363,995 Active 593 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $363,995 Active 592 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $363,995 Active 591 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $363,995 Active 590 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $363,995 Active 589 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $363,995 Active 588 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $363,995 Active 587 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $363,995 Active 586 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $363,995 Active 585 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $363,995 Active 584 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $363,995 Active 582 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $363,995 Active 581 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $363,995 Active 580 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $363,995 Active 578 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $363,995 Active 577 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $363,995 Active 576 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $363,995 Active 575 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $363,995 Active 574 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $363,995 Active 573 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $363,995 Active 572 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $360,995 Active 571 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $360,995 Active 569 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $360,995 Active 567 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $360,995 Active 566 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $360,995 Active 563 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $360,995 Active 562 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $360,995 Active 561 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $360,995 Active 560 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $360,995 Active 558 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $360,995 Active 554 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $360,995 Active 553 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $360,995 Active 552 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $360,995 Active 549 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,995 Active 548 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,995 Active 547 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,995 Active 546 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,035
• − Property taxes: −$6,168
• − Insurance: −$2,056
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,569
• − Management: −$2,569
• − Depreciation: −$11,963
• Taxable loss: −$16,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,899
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Round Rock, TX is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a great location. It's move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to the landscaping and interior paint.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — refreshes interior and exterior ↑
• Both window treatments — improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Veterans Hill El F TX #1,946/4,322 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 High Hutto Ninth Grade Center

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Round Rock

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #2184

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Round Rock, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 184,922
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 66,171
• Household income: $122,680
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Black 11% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.58%
• Current HPI: 179.7075
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.23%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $365,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $360,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $370,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $375,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $372,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $365,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $370,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $366,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $362,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $372,995 Zillow
• 2024-12-02 Listed $392,995 Zillow