Plan 2410 Modeled Plan · Round Rock, TX 78665

$370,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,410 sqft · SingleFamily · 660 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 9-ft.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 660 days

🏗️ New construction. The $370,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $410,762.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $371k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-793 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.7% in Round Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#56 in TX, #2,184 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Hill El (math 30% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 628 students, 48% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 677 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 660 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,998 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 660 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.27%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $410,762
• List price: $370,995
• Delta: -9.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6629 Casiano Cv	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,459 (+2%)	2mo	$425,000	$173	64
5705 Bellissima Way	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,583 (+7%)	3mo	$425,000	$165	60
4308 College Square Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,358 (-2%)	2mo	$469,486	$199	57
4632 College Square Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,310 (-4%)	3mo	$559,990	$242	57
6340 Turin Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,263 (-6%)	3mo	$414,900	$183	54
6633 Verona Pl	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,265 (-6%)	0mo	$414,900	$183	54
4511 Alfano Loop	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,579 (+7%)	3mo	$410,000	$159	53
4313 Contrail Ln	0.66mi	4/4.0	2,288 (-5%)	3mo	$466,990	$204	52
6634 Verona Pl	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,605 (+8%)	4mo	$459,900	$177	48
4404 College Square Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,688 (+12%)	2mo	$584,990	$218	47
3544 De Soto Loop	0.66mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,635 (+9%)	3mo	$465,000	$176	44
6144 Teodoro Bnd	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,722 (+13%)	2mo	$424,900	$156	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-124,593
• Equity at exit: $61,246

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-202,670
• Equity at exit: $35,515

Cash invested: $115,013 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 68 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.3 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $453,728 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 109 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78665

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 677
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,590 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$513 /mo · $6,161/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,593

Max offer price $296,073

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-509	-5% $-651	+0% $-793	+5% $-935	+10% $-1,076
Rent	-10% $-997	-5% $-895	+0% $-793	+5% $-690	+10% $-588
Rate	-1.0pp $-586	-0.5pp $-688	base $-793	+0.5pp $-899	+1.0pp $-1,007

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,691
• Closing costs: $12,323
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3840 Casoria Ln Round Rock, TX	5.0	2.5	2630	$3,995	$1.52	23d	1	0.08mi
3928 Tufino Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,150	$1.31	87d	1	0.16mi
4406 Venticano Pl Round Rock, TX	5.0	2.5	3101	$2,800	$0.90	78d	1	0.16mi
4465 Acerno St Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2412	$2,350	$0.97	42d	1	0.21mi
4481 Acerno St Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2527	$2,500	$0.99	28d	1	0.23mi
3643 Sorriso Ln Round Rock, TX	5.0	3.0	3023	$2,950	$0.98	110d	1	0.42mi
5601 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,000	$1.13	9d	1	0.48mi
5612 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,050	$1.16	0d	1	0.49mi
5576 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$1,999	$1.22	9d	1	0.52mi
5563 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2030	$2,300	$1.13	9d	1	0.53mi
5547 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	5.0	4.0	2853	$3,995	$1.40	55d	1	0.56mi
4600 Alfano Loop Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2070	$2,300	$1.11	9d	1	0.57mi
6060 Teodoro Bnd Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1966	$2,300	$1.17	139d	1	0.57mi
6045 Teodoro Bnd Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	1855	$2,250	$1.21	87d	1	0.58mi
5817 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,150	$1.06	9d	1	0.61mi
3914 La Contenta Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2229	$2,450	$1.10	139d	1	0.63mi
6508 Cetone Ter Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,095	$1.21	115d	1	0.64mi
4653 Alfano Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	3055	$2,600	$0.85	42d	1	0.65mi
4318 Frankfurt Ln Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2220	$3,000	$1.35	59d	1	0.67mi
6605 Verona Pl Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,150	$1.23	23d	1	0.68mi
6532 Cetone Ter Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,100	$1.31	7d	1	0.68mi
6513 Leonardo Cv Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,195	$1.27	93d	1	0.70mi
6650 Verona Pl Round Rock, TX	3.0	3.0	1805	$2,250	$1.25	69d	1	0.73mi
4040 Terracina Dr Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2458	$2,400	$0.98	23d	1	0.74mi
4345 Chapel Hill St Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1577	$2,150	$1.36	6d	1	0.75mi
6562 Teramo Ter Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	2199	$1,999	$0.91	84d	1	0.77mi
4937 Morese Palace Trl Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2210	$2,395	$1.08	139d	1	0.77mi
3457 Francisco Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	3000	$3,000	$1.00	85d	1	0.77mi
3508 De Torres Cir Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	2203	$2,500	$1.13	103d	1	0.78mi
5913 Toscana Trce Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1930	$2,150	$1.11	9d	1	0.81mi
5900 Bucine Cv Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2802	$2,495	$0.89	63d	1	0.82mi
5900 Bucine Cv Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2802	$2,695	$0.96	98d	1	0.82mi
3308 De Torres Cir Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.5	3105	$2,900	$0.93	59d	1	0.87mi
3304 De Torres Cir Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,250	$1.17	9d	1	0.88mi
3416 De Soto Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.0	1917	$2,500	$1.30	139d	1	0.88mi
4305 Garden Point Dr Round Rock, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1760	$2,604	$1.48	0d	12	0.88mi
3425 De Soto Loop Round Rock, TX	5.0	3.0	3095	$3,100	$1.00	9d	1	0.91mi
3316 Amerigo Pl Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2232	$2,775	$1.24	9d	1	0.97mi
5772 Corsica Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.0	2040	$2,199	$1.08	23d	1	0.99mi
5772 Corsica Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.0	2040	$2,199	$1.08	0d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $370,995 Active 660 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $370,995 Active 659 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $370,995 Active 658 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $370,995 Active 657 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $370,995 Active 656 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $370,995 Active 655 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $370,995 Active 654 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $370,995 Active 653 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $370,995 Active 652 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $370,995 Active 651 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $370,995 Active 650 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $370,995 Active 649 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $370,995 Active 648 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $370,995 Active 642 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $370,995 Active 641 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $370,995 Active 640 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $370,995 Active 637 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $365,995 Active 636 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $365,995 Active 635 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $365,995 Active 634 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $365,995 Active 633 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $365,995 Active 631 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $365,995 Active 630 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $365,995 Active 629 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $365,995 Active 628 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $365,995 Active 627 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $365,995 Active 626 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $365,995 Active 625 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $365,995 Active 624 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $365,995 Active 623 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $365,995 Active 622 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $365,995 Active 621 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    price $365,995 Active 620 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $363,995 Active 620 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $363,995 Active 619 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $363,995 Active 617 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $363,995 Active 616 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $363,995 Active 615 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $363,995 Active 614 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $363,995 Active 612 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $363,995 Active 611 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $363,995 Active 610 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $363,995 Active 609 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $363,995 Active 606 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $363,995 Active 604 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $363,995 Active 603 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $363,995 Active 601 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $363,995 Active 599 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $363,995 Active 598 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $363,995 Active 597 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,009
• − Property taxes: −$6,161
• − Insurance: −$2,054
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,486
• − Management: −$2,486
• − Depreciation: −$11,949
• Taxable loss: −$17,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,096
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Round Rock, TX is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a great location. It's move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to the landscaping and interior paint.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — refreshes interior and exterior ↑
• Both window treatments — improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Veterans Hill El F TX #1,946/4,322 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 High Hutto Ninth Grade Center

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Round Rock

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #2184

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Round Rock, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 184,922
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 66,171
• Household income: $122,680
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Black 11% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.58%
• Current HPI: 179.7075
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.23%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $365,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $360,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $370,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $375,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $372,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $365,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $370,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $366,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $362,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $372,995 Zillow
• 2024-12-02 Listed $392,995 Zillow