18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 201 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$224,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 224 Days on market

Built 2010 45 ac lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $232k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here’s a wonderful chance to own a home that’s every bit as welcoming inside as it is outside. Tucked away in a peaceful setting next to a greenbelt, you’ll enjoy a roomy yard and quiet outdoor space where you can relax, watch the wildlife, or simply enjoy the fresh air. The cozy living room opens right onto a sunny deck — perfect for barbecues, morning coffee, or winding down at the end of the day. Inside, there’s plenty of room with a large main living area plus an extra family room or den, giving you flexible space for gatherings, hobbies, or just kicking back. All of this comes with the great lifestyle of Skyline Ranch Country Club — a friendly, sought-after community you’ll be proud to call home.

Key facts

• Sunny deck
• Quiet outdoor space
• Roomy yard

Tags

• ROOMY YARD
• QUIET OUTDOOR SPACE
• SUNNY DECK
• LARGE MAIN LIVING AREA
• EXTRA FAMILY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.88%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,450
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -3.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	8mo	$267,500	$174	88
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-0%)	10mo	$149,000	$97	86
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,530 (-0%)	10mo	$115,000	$75	85
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+2%)	12mo	$100,000	$64	82
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	12mo	$89,500	$62	79
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	14mo	$165,000	$115	77
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 11	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+2%)	21mo	$180,000	$115	75
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #144	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	12mo	$170,000	$101	74
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	12mo	$140,000	$97	73
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-15%)	9mo	$255,000	$195	68
18218 Paradise Mtn Rd #59	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	3mo	$249,900	$149	65
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #7	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,355 (-12%)	21mo	$92,000	$68	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $46,613
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $147,268
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $494/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$696
• Net cashflow: $1,306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,664

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Active 213 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,900 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 206 DOM
15. 2025-12-25
    status Active 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Here’s a wonderful chance to own a home that’s every bit as welcoming inside as it is outside. Tucked away in a peaceful setting next to a greenbelt, you’ll enjoy a roomy yard and quiet outdoor space where you can relax, watch the wildlife, or simply enjoy the fresh air. The cozy living room opens right onto a sunny deck — perfect for barbecues, morning coffee, or winding down at the end of the day. Inside, there’s plenty of room with a large main living area plus an extra family room or den, giving you flexible space for gatherings, hobbies, or just kicking back. All of this comes with the great lifestyle of Skyline Ranch Country Club — a friendly, sought-after community you’ll be proud to call home.

16. 2025-10-31
    historical 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Here’s a wonderful chance to own a home that’s every bit as welcoming inside as it is outside. Tucked away in a peaceful setting next to a greenbelt, you’ll enjoy a roomy yard and quiet outdoor space where you can relax, watch the wildlife, or simply enjoy the fresh air. The cozy living room opens right onto a sunny deck — perfect for barbecues, morning coffee, or winding down at the end of the day. Inside, there’s plenty of room with a large main living area plus an extra family room or den, giving you flexible space for gatherings, hobbies, or just kicking back. All of this comes with the great lifestyle of Skyline Ranch Country Club — a friendly, sought-after community you’ll be proud to call home.

17. 2025-09-12
    listed $224,900 Active 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Here’s a wonderful chance to own a home that’s every bit as welcoming inside as it is outside. Tucked away in a peaceful setting next to a greenbelt, you’ll enjoy a roomy yard and quiet outdoor space where you can relax, watch the wildlife, or simply enjoy the fresh air. The cozy living room opens right onto a sunny deck — perfect for barbecues, morning coffee, or winding down at the end of the day. Inside, there’s plenty of room with a large main living area plus an extra family room or den, giving you flexible space for gatherings, hobbies, or just kicking back. All of this comes with the great lifestyle of Skyline Ranch Country Club — a friendly, sought-after community you’ll be proud to call home.

18. 2025-09-12
    historical

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Here’s a wonderful chance to own a home that’s every bit as welcoming inside as it is outside. Tucked away in a peaceful setting next to a greenbelt, you’ll enjoy a roomy yard and quiet outdoor space where you can relax, watch the wildlife, or simply enjoy the fresh air. The cozy living room opens right onto a sunny deck — perfect for barbecues, morning coffee, or winding down at the end of the day. Inside, there’s plenty of room with a large main living area plus an extra family room or den, giving you flexible space for gatherings, hobbies, or just kicking back. All of this comes with the great lifestyle of Skyline Ranch Country Club — a friendly, sought-after community you’ll be proud to call home.

19. 2025-07-31
    listed $234,000 Active
20. 2023-07-19
    soldstatus $219,000 Closed Sale
21. 2023-05-16
    status Pending Sale
22. 2023-03-06
    status Active
23. 2023-02-19
    status Pending Sale
24. 2022-11-18
    price $219,000
25. 2022-10-01
    price $249,000
26. 2022-09-27
    price $269,000
27. 2022-07-10
    price $279,000
28. 2022-05-26
    listed $299,000 Active
29. 2022-04-25
    status Pending Sale
30. 2022-04-22
    historical
31. 2022-03-13
    price $289,000
32. 2022-01-28
    listed $259,000 Active
33. 2021-04-16
    historical
34. 2021-03-20
    listed $177,000 Active
35. 2005-10-12
    soldstatus $114,500
36. 2005-08-25
    listed $119,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $494 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,709 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,215/yr (+$101/mo · 246.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$494
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,184
• − Management: −$3,184
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable income: $12,669
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,041
• After-tax cash flow: $12,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+89.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-25 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $224,900 SDMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $234,000 SDMLS
• 2023-07-19 Sold (MLS) $219,000 CRMLS
• 2023-05-16 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-03-06 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-02-19 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-11-18 Price Changed $219,000 CRMLS
• 2022-10-01 Price Changed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2022-09-27 Price Changed $269,000 CRMLS
• 2022-07-10 Price Changed $279,000 CRMLS
• 2022-05-26 Listed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2022-04-25 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-04-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-03-13 Price Changed $289,000 CRMLS
• 2022-01-28 Listed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2021-04-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2021-03-20 Listed $177,000 CRMLS
• 2005-10-12 Sold (MLS) $114,500 CRMLS
• 2005-08-25 Listed $119,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-14.3%/yr

Latest (2013): $494 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.