203 S Valencia Dr · Albany, GA 31707

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,691 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1954 0.25 ac lot Est $112k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! This cute home is located in Southwest Albany - includes 5bedrooms - 2 full baths! This home offers a nice open flow between the living, dining, kitchen space. 4 bedrooms plus a formal dining space or you can easily use the formal dining room as a 5th bedroom! Spacious bedrooms! Nice backyard! Screened porch! Central Heating/Air. ROOF - 3 years old!

Key facts

• 3 years old roof
• Formal dining space
• Screened porch

Tags

• OPEN FLOW
• FORMAL DINING SPACE
• SCREENED PORCH
• CENTRAL HEATING AIR
• 3 YEARS OLD ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential single family residence

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family detached home; 1 story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Screened patio/porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.7% in Albany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#371 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dougherty County (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #163 of 174 in GA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Live Oak Elementary School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 805 students, 100% FRL); Merry Acres Middle School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #449 of 470 statewide, top 97%, 764 students, 100% FRL); Westover High School (math 5% / reading 24%, grade F, #297 of 424 statewide, top 74%, 1,360 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 79% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.4%/yr); 184 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45 units permitted in Dougherty County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dougherty County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.32%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $111,606
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1906 W Whitney Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,736 (+3%)	4mo	$114,250	$66	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $21,433
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $83,036
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31707

• Rents YoY: 9.4%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,220 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,361/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $681

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $447	+0% $426	+5% $404	+10% $383
Rent	-10% $329	-5% $377	+0% $426	+5% $474	+10% $522
Rate	-1.0pp $463	-0.5pp $445	base $426	+0.5pp $406	+1.0pp $386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 Endicott Ln Albany, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,295	$1.20	22d	1	0.39mi
1502 Gillespie Ave Albany, GA	3.0	1.0	1104	$875	$0.79	22d	1	0.61mi
2380 Meadowlark Commons Ct Albany, GA	2.0	2.0	1146	$800	$0.70	22d	1	0.94mi
612 Florence Dr Albany, GA	3.0	1.0	1428	$1,200	$0.84	22d	1	0.98mi
1312 Colquitt Ave Albany, GA	3.0	1.0	1133	$900	$0.79	22d	1	1.01mi
427 Meadowlark Dr Albany, GA	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,895	$1.07	22d	1	1.28mi
1906 Robinhood Rd Albany, GA	3.0	2.0	1845	$1,600	$0.87	22d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   price $75,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $79,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 3 DOM
19. 2026-05-27
    listed $79,900 Active
20. 2025-07-11
    historical
21. 2025-06-16
    price $145,000
22. 2025-05-13
    listed $150,000 New
23. 2023-03-14
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,361 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,361 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,361
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,171
• − Management: −$1,171
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,002
• After-tax cash flow: $4,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dougherty County
• NCES district ID: 1301830
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $33,105
• Composite: 11.31/100
• National rank: #9716
• State rank: #163 of 174 in GA

Livability — Albany

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #18903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Albany, GA
• County: Dougherty County · 89,040 people
• City population: 89,040
• Metro: Albany, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,679
• Household income: $50,862
• Rent vs Own: 57.3% rent · 42.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1572.0

Population outlook (Dougherty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,551 people
• By 2030: 80,637 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 72,090 · -14.7%
• By 2050: 64,056 · -24.2%
• By 2075: 46,332 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 33,127 · -60.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dougherty

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+41.1) · D 70.4% · R 29.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 41.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+41.1 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+38.3 2012: D+39.0 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.86%
• Current HPI: 173.4443
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.39%
• Metro: Albany, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+22.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $79,900 SWGABOR
• 2025-07-11 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $145,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $150,000 GAMLS
• 2023-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,361 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.