14821 Hidden Rock Dr #282 · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$89,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,337 sqft · Manufactured · 256 Days on market

Built 1990 4,312 sqft lot Est $90k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming residence, featuring two bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a versatile office/hobby room is ideally situated in the highly sought-after Forest Springs Senior Park. The newly carpeted interior boasts a bright and airy living room and dining room with vaulted ceilings. The exceptionally spacious kitchen is illuminated by skylights, while the formal dining room is enhanced by four oversized windows and a built-in china hutch. Additionally, the home includes an indoor laundry room with built-in cabinetry and space for a freezer. A dedicated office or hobby room offers a built-in bookcase, complemented by a generously sized guest room. The master bedroom provides ample space with a wal

Key facts

• 4,312 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Sierra Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #354 of 1,571 statewide, top 24%, 319 students, 34% FRL); Magnolia Intermediate (math 24% / reading 51%, grade F, #166 of 498 statewide, top 34%, 379 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 256 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.84%
• DSCR: 3.44
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,579
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14821 Hidden Rock Dr #282	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,337 (0%)	1mo	$89,500	$67	99
10150 Stone Arch Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+0%)	1mo	$55,000	$41	88
10042 Grinding Rock Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	5mo	$90,000	$63	72
10040 Stone Arch Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	4mo	$85,000	$59	72
10131 Shamrock Lode	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	1mo	$60,000	$40	71
10086 Grinding Rock Dr #208	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+15%)	2mo	$75,000	$49	64
14338 St Hwy 49 #79	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	5mo	$120,000	$83	60
10046 Dalewood Way	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	2mo	$160,000	$111	58
10088 Dalewood Way	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	0mo	$138,000	$96	58
10073 Dalewood Way	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	1mo	$115,000	$80	57
14969 N Country Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+9%)	1mo	$82,500	$57	51
10070 Dalewood Way	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	4mo	$130,000	$113	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $58,476
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $144,985
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $1,145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $783

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,207	-5% $1,176	+0% $1,145	+5% $1,114	+10% $1,083
Rent	-10% $969	-5% $1,057	+0% $1,145	+5% $1,233	+10% $1,322
Rate	-1.0pp $1,190	-0.5pp $1,168	base $1,145	+0.5pp $1,122	+1.0pp $1,099

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15487 Kingsbury Cir Grass Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	4d	1	1.06mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $13,098
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,144
• After-tax cash flow: $10,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B