1309 Kingsley Rd · Lower Allen, PA 17011

$240,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,033 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1953 6,098 sqft lot Est $241k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gem of the neighborhood in New Cumberland-3 bed/1 bath home w/ carport. Well maintained and laundry on main floor off kitchen; newer roof, newer furnace, hotwater heater and vinyl windows. Kitchen is large w/ many cabinets and a pantry. Flat top cook stove, microwave and dishwasher. LR and 1 bedroom have beautiful built ins. This home ready to move right in. Hardwoods under carpet. Lovely bay window in LR. Yard is landscaped w/ perennials and ready for you to enjoy.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1953

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-113/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Lower Allen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#231 in PA, #2,010 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• West Shore SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #222 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Highland El Sch (math 45% / reading 58%, grade C-, #632 of 1,518 statewide, top 42%, 462 students, 44% FRL); New Cumberland Ms (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #346 of 512 statewide, top 69%, 549 students, 49% FRL); Cedar Cliff Hs (math 56% / reading 24%, grade F, #263 of 437 statewide, top 60%, 1,353 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 25% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $240k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,083 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,689
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1309 Kingsley Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,033 (0%)	1mo	$251,000	$243	99
1303 Kingsley Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	997 (-4%)	1mo	$251,500	$252	88
1402 Warwick Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	5mo	$315,000	$305	88
1704 Sherwood Rd	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,036 (+0%)	8mo	$229,900	$222	74
1191 Shoreham Rd	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	942 (-9%)	2mo	$238,101	$253	73
711 Coolidge St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+1%)	3mo	$242,000	$233	73
1181 Kingsley Rd	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	965 (-7%)	5mo	$260,000	$269	71
966 Bosler Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (-2%)	4mo	$205,000	$203	56
3 Highland Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-8%)	2mo	$215,000	$226	54
805 Linwood St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-9%)	2mo	$170,100	$182	54
610 Walton St	0.48mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,121 (+8%)	3mo	$230,000	$205	54
721 Herman Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+12%)	4mo	$242,900	$211	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-32,905
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-606
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17011

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,021 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,967/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,033

Max offer price $238,343

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $59	+0% $-9	+5% $-77	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-89	+0% $-9	+5% $70	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $52	base $-9	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
905 Hummel Ave Lemoyne, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	45d	1	0.57mi
1149 Columbus Ave Lemoyne, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$2,075	$2.47	15d	9	0.58mi
7 Hummel Ave Camp Hill, PA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,275	$1.16	15d	1	0.73mi
407 Herman Ave Lemoyne, PA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	23d	1	0.79mi
1400 Market St Unit 1400 Market 103 Camp Hill, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,895	$2.53	15d	1	0.95mi
1400 Market St Unit 1400 Market 101 Camp Hill, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,095	$2.62	15d	1	0.95mi
1400 Market St Unit 1400 Market 102 Camp Hill, PA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,195	$2.58	15d	1	0.95mi
425 7th St New Cumberland, PA	2.0	1.5	1050	$975	$0.93	23d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $240,000 Active
3. 2026-04-01
   historical $240,000
4. 2017-12-20
   historical
5. 2017-12-18
   soldstatus $140,000
6. 2017-12-14
   soldstatus $145,000 470-char remark

   Show marketing remark (470 chars)

   Gem of the neighborhood in New Cumberland-3 bed/1 bath home w/ carport. Well maintained and laundry on main floor off kitchen; newer roof, newer furnace, hotwater heater and vinyl windows. Kitchen is large w/ many cabinets and a pantry. Flat top cook stove, microwave and dishwasher. LR and 1 bedroom have beautiful built ins. This home ready to move right in. Hardwoods under carpet. Lovely bay window in LR. Yard is landscaped w/ perennials and ready for you to enjoy.

7. 2017-07-17
   listed $145,000
8. 2017-06-26
   listed $145,000 470-char remark

   Show marketing remark (470 chars)

   Gem of the neighborhood in New Cumberland-3 bed/1 bath home w/ carport. Well maintained and laundry on main floor off kitchen; newer roof, newer furnace, hotwater heater and vinyl windows. Kitchen is large w/ many cabinets and a pantry. Flat top cook stove, microwave and dishwasher. LR and 1 bedroom have beautiful built ins. This home ready to move right in. Hardwoods under carpet. Lovely bay window in LR. Yard is landscaped w/ perennials and ready for you to enjoy.

9. 1993-07-28
   soldstatus $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,967 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,379 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$413/yr (+$34/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$2,967
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,223
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,013
• After-tax cash flow: $901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Shore SD
• NCES district ID: 4225830
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,398
• Composite: 40.9/100
• National rank: #3617
• State rank: #222 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lower Allen

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #231
• US rank: #2010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lower Allen, PA
• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 39,664
• Household income: $92,556
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 858.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.65%
• Current HPI: 254.4755
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+203.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $240,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-01 Coming Soon $240,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-12-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-14 Sold (MLS) $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-07-17 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-06-26 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1993-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,967 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.