230 Golden Grain Dr · Rosenberg, TX 77469

$320,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 230 Days on market

Built 2013 5,998 sqft lot $111/sqft · 6% below area Est $340k · 6% under $75/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-story home offering 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,800 sq ft of living space in the highly sought-after Summer Lakes subdivision. Located in a master-planned community, this home provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle. Located in a community known for its resort-style amenities, Summer Lakes offers pools, parks, scenic lakes, walking trails, and a strong sense of neighborhood pride. It’s also zoned to excellent schools and conveniently situated near shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is perfect for growing families or anyone seeking space and comfort in a well-established community.

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2013

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $320k).
• Recommended offer: $282k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John Arredondo El (math 38% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 695 students, 53% FRL); Reading J H (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 1,588 students, 28% FRL); George Ranch H S (math 52% / reading 76%, grade B-, #224 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 2,511 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,771
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -5.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7931 Blue Lake Dr	0.28mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,958 (+3%)	3mo	$400,000	$135	73
338 Summer Landing Ct	0.36mi	5/4.0	2,981 (+4%)	1mo	$399,900	$134	72
322 Lake Rim Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,711 (-6%)	0mo	$379,000	$140	71
8210 Silent Deep Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,770 (-4%)	11mo	$345,000	$125	70
7814 Blue Lake Dr	0.35mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,870 (-0%)	14mo	$456,000	$159	65
611 Coldstone Ct	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,028 (+5%)	1mo	$389,999	$129	60
8203 Longear Ln	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,502 (-13%)	14mo	$460,000	$184	54
515 Rainswept Pass Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,055 (+6%)	13mo	$379,990	$124	52
8214 Silent Deep Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,455 (-14%)	10mo	$350,000	$143	52
618 Round Lake Dr	0.36mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,182 (+11%)	13mo	$449,900	$141	48
330 Honeysuckle Vine Dr	0.55mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,295 (+15%)	14mo	$450,000	$137	31
8711 Snyder Farm Ln	0.66mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,519 (-12%)	14mo	$379,990	$151	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-56,018
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-79,230
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,435 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$739 /mo · $8,869/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$721
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,323

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $178	+0% $88	+5% $-3	+10% $-93
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-48	+0% $88	+5% $224	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $169	base $88	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
615 Arbor Green Ln Rosenberg, TX	4.0	3.0	2564	$3,800	$1.48	46d	1	0.98mi
1714 Dunbar Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.5	3646	$3,000	$0.82	46d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $320,000 Pending 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,000 Active Under Contract 227 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active Under Contract 226 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $320,000 Active Under Contract 225 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $320,000 Active Under Contract 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $320,000 Active Under Contract 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $320,000 Active Under Contract 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $320,000 Active Under Contract 219 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $320,000 Active Under Contract 218 DOM
10. 2026-05-08
    historical Active Under Contract 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-story home offering 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,800 sq ft of living space in the highly sought-after Summer Lakes subdivision. Located in a master-planned community, this home provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle. Located in a community known for its resort-style amenities, Summer Lakes offers pools, parks, scenic lakes, walking trails, and a strong sense of neighborhood pride. It’s also zoned to excellent schools and conveniently situated near shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is perfect for growing families or anyone seeking space and comfort in a well-established community.

11. 2026-04-15
    price $320,000 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-story home offering 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,800 sq ft of living space in the highly sought-after Summer Lakes subdivision. Located in a master-planned community, this home provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle. Located in a community known for its resort-style amenities, Summer Lakes offers pools, parks, scenic lakes, walking trails, and a strong sense of neighborhood pride. It’s also zoned to excellent schools and conveniently situated near shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is perfect for growing families or anyone seeking space and comfort in a well-established community.

12. 2026-04-07
    price $340,000 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-story home offering 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,800 sq ft of living space in the highly sought-after Summer Lakes subdivision. Located in a master-planned community, this home provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle. Located in a community known for its resort-style amenities, Summer Lakes offers pools, parks, scenic lakes, walking trails, and a strong sense of neighborhood pride. It’s also zoned to excellent schools and conveniently situated near shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is perfect for growing families or anyone seeking space and comfort in a well-established community.

13. 2026-03-10
    price $350,000 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-story home offering 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,800 sq ft of living space in the highly sought-after Summer Lakes subdivision. Located in a master-planned community, this home provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle. Located in a community known for its resort-style amenities, Summer Lakes offers pools, parks, scenic lakes, walking trails, and a strong sense of neighborhood pride. It’s also zoned to excellent schools and conveniently situated near shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is perfect for growing families or anyone seeking space and comfort in a well-established community.

14. 2026-01-11
    price $355,000 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-story home offering 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,800 sq ft of living space in the highly sought-after Summer Lakes subdivision. Located in a master-planned community, this home provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle. Located in a community known for its resort-style amenities, Summer Lakes offers pools, parks, scenic lakes, walking trails, and a strong sense of neighborhood pride. It’s also zoned to excellent schools and conveniently situated near shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is perfect for growing families or anyone seeking space and comfort in a well-established community.

15. 2025-12-01
    status Active 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-story home offering 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,800 sq ft of living space in the highly sought-after Summer Lakes subdivision. Located in a master-planned community, this home provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle. Located in a community known for its resort-style amenities, Summer Lakes offers pools, parks, scenic lakes, walking trails, and a strong sense of neighborhood pride. It’s also zoned to excellent schools and conveniently situated near shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is perfect for growing families or anyone seeking space and comfort in a well-established community.

16. 2025-11-20
    status Pending 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-story home offering 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,800 sq ft of living space in the highly sought-after Summer Lakes subdivision. Located in a master-planned community, this home provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle. Located in a community known for its resort-style amenities, Summer Lakes offers pools, parks, scenic lakes, walking trails, and a strong sense of neighborhood pride. It’s also zoned to excellent schools and conveniently situated near shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is perfect for growing families or anyone seeking space and comfort in a well-established community.

17. 2025-10-25
    listed $359,000 Active 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-story home offering 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,800 sq ft of living space in the highly sought-after Summer Lakes subdivision. Located in a master-planned community, this home provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle. Located in a community known for its resort-style amenities, Summer Lakes offers pools, parks, scenic lakes, walking trails, and a strong sense of neighborhood pride. It’s also zoned to excellent schools and conveniently situated near shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is perfect for growing families or anyone seeking space and comfort in a well-established community.

18. 2025-10-23
    historical
19. 2025-10-18
    price $359,000
20. 2025-10-04
    price $368,000
21. 2025-07-25
    price $373,000
22. 2025-07-11
    listed $378,000 Active
23. 2017-03-24
    soldstatus
24. 2017-03-22
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2017-02-01
    status Pending
26. 2017-01-23
    status Option Pending
27. 2017-01-05
    price $238,500
28. 2017-01-03
    status Active
29. 2016-12-22
    status Pending, Continue to Show
30. 2016-12-18
    status Pending
31. 2016-12-06
    status Option Pending
32. 2016-11-12
    listed $239,000 Active
33. 2016-09-21
    historical
34. 2016-09-04
    status Active
35. 2016-09-02
    status Active
36. 2016-09-02
    historical
37. 2016-09-01
    historical
38. 2016-08-16
    price $239,999
39. 2016-06-14
    listed $249,999 Active
40. 2016-05-24
    historical
41. 2015-12-11
    listed $260,000 Active
42. 2015-10-31
    historical
43. 2015-09-05
    price $269,500
44. 2015-05-24
    price $279,000
45. 2015-05-23
    listed $179,000 Active
46. 2013-12-31
    soldstatus Sold
47. 2013-11-19
    status Pending, Continue to Show
48. 2013-11-12
    status Active
49. 2013-06-07
    status Pending, Continue to Show
50. 2013-05-22
    listed $223,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,869 · $739/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,869 · $739/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$8,869
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,297
• − Management: −$3,297
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$3,982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$956
• After-tax cash flow: $2,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosenberg, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $355,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $359,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $359,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $368,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $373,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $378,000 HARMLS
• 2017-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-03-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-02-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-01-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-01-05 Price Changed $238,500 HARMLS
• 2017-01-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-12-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-12-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-12-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-11-12 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2016-09-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-09-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-09-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-09-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-09-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-08-16 Price Changed $239,999 HARMLS
• 2016-06-14 Listed $249,999 HARMLS
• 2016-05-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-12-11 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2015-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-09-05 Price Changed $269,500 HARMLS
• 2015-05-24 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2015-05-23 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2013-12-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-11-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-11-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-06-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-05-22 Listed $223,990 HARMLS
• 2012-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+20.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,869 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.