2856 Knollwood Dr SE · Rochester, MN 55904

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,754 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2004 9,147 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2004 ranch home overlooking a small grove of trees and the valley. 2 full bath, 4 bedrooms, 2 car attached garage & appliances are included. Nice family room in the walk-out basement. Home is in beautiufl condition! Buyer's to meet certain requirements.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.21 acres (approx. 60 x 155); Above-grade finished area listed as 954; Below-grade finished area listed as 800; Total living area listed as 1,754; Building total area listed as 1,908; Foundation area listed as 954
• Financial info: Land is leased ($25)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One level
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.5% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewood Elementary (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #368 of 857 statewide, top 47%, 308 students, 29% FRL); Mayo Senior High (math 42% / reading 65%, grade C-, #104 of 471 statewide, top 22%, 1,862 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 149 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.73%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,027
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $17,141
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55904

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,594/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,635

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1155 Felty Ave SE Rochester, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$2,358	$2.33	13d	25	0.26mi
832 21st Ave SE Unit 21 Rochester, MN	4.0	2.0	1240	$1,495	$1.21	43d	1	0.85mi
826 21st Ave SE Rochester, MN	4.0	2.0	1250	$1,508	$1.21	13d	11	0.86mi
220 Stonelake Dr SE Rochester, MN	4.0	3.0	2208	$2,900	$1.31	13d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $190,000 Active
3. 2007-04-19
   historical
4. 2007-04-02
   soldstatus $136,000 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   2004 ranch home overlooking a small grove of trees and the valley. 2 full bath, 4 bedrooms, 2 car attached garage & appliances are included. Nice family room in the walk-out basement. Home is in beautiufl condition! Buyer's to meet certain requirements.

5. 2007-01-19
   listed $136,000

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   2004 ranch home overlooking a small grove of trees and the valley. 2 full bath, 4 bedrooms, 2 car attached garage & appliances are included. Nice family room in the walk-out basement. Home is in beautiufl condition! Buyer's to meet certain requirements.

6. 2007-01-19
   listed $136,000 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   2004 ranch home overlooking a small grove of trees and the valley. 2 full bath, 4 bedrooms, 2 car attached garage & appliances are included. Nice family room in the walk-out basement. Home is in beautiufl condition! Buyer's to meet certain requirements.

7. 2007-01-02
   soldstatus $122,851
8. 2004-09-24
   soldstatus $105,337
9. 2004-09-24
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,594 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,594 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,594
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $1,705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$409
• After-tax cash flow: $4,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 29,639
• Household income: $77,016
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.04%
• Current HPI: 267.168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+80.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $190,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-02 Sold (MLS) $136,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-19 Listed $136,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-19 Listed $136,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $122,851 Public Records
• 2004-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $105,337 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,594 · -14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.