2641 River Bank Dr · Burleson, TX 76028

$440,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,662 sqft · Land · 115 Days on market

Built 2025 4,792 sqft lot $166/sqft · 15% above area Est $383k · 15% over $90/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21187871 - Built by Impression Homes - Ready Now! ~ Great floorplan for everyone. With several closets for storage, there is plenty of space to store every family member’s prized possessions. This one-story home also offers a California kitchen, big walk-in pantry, FLEX and private owner’s suite with an oversized walk-in closet.

Key facts

• California kitchen
• Big walk-in pantry
• 4,792 sq ft lot

Tags

• CALIFORNIA KITCHEN
• BIG WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $441k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-320 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($401k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $298,334 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,802
• List price: $440,999
• Delta: 15.20%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-95,659
• Equity at exit: $65,754

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-124,792
• Equity at exit: $38,130

Cash invested: $123,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 679
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,313
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,088/yr
• Insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $-320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,389

Max offer price $384,425

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-71	-5% $-195	+0% $-320	+5% $-445	+10% $-570
Rent	-10% $-556	-5% $-438	+0% $-320	+5% $-202	+10% $-85
Rate	-1.0pp $-98	-0.5pp $-208	base $-320	+0.5pp $-435	+1.0pp $-551

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,250
• Closing costs: $13,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2752 Elmwood Dr Burleson, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,800	$1.38	44d	1	1.33mi
2435 Castle Pines Dr Burleson, TX	4.0	3.0	3064	$2,950	$0.96	2d	1	1.44mi
2516 Castle Pines Dr Unit 1287532P Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	2507	$16,227	$6.47	22d	1	1.45mi
2516 Castle Pines Dr Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	2518	$8,950	$3.55	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $440,999 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $440,999 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $440,999 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,999 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $440,999 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $440,999 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $440,999 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $440,999 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $440,999 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $440,999 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $440,999 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $440,999 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $440,999 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    price $440,999 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Great floorplan for a growing family. With several closets for storage, there is plenty of space to store every family member's prized possessions. This one-story home also offers a California kitchen, big walk-in pantry, FLEX and private owner's suite with an oversized walk-in closet.

15. 2026-04-02
    price $440,999 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Great floorplan for a growing family. With several closets for storage, there is plenty of space to store every family member's prized possessions. This one-story home also offers a California kitchen, big walk-in pantry, FLEX and private owner's suite with an oversized walk-in closet.

16. 2026-02-23
    listed $457,742 Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    MLS# 21187871 - Built by Impression Homes - Ready Now! ~ Great floorplan for everyone. With several closets for storage, there is plenty of space to store every family member’s prized possessions. This one-story home also offers a California kitchen, big walk-in pantry, FLEX and private owner’s suite with an oversized walk-in closet.

17. 2026-02-21
    listed $457,742 Active 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Great floorplan for a growing family. With several closets for storage, there is plenty of space to store every family member's prized possessions. This one-story home also offers a California kitchen, big walk-in pantry, FLEX and private owner's suite with an oversized walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,088 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,070 · $673/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,982/yr (+$582/mo · 641.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,703
• − Property taxes: −$1,088
• − Insurance: −$2,205
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,864
• − Management: −$2,864
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$12,829
• Taxable loss: −$11,833
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,840
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $440,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $440,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-23 Listed $457,742 NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $457,742 Zillow

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,088 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.