103 Marion Oaks Dr · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,009 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2020 10,019 sqft lot $198/sqft · 12% below area Est $228k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home built in 2020, located in desirable Unit 1 of Marion Oaks. This home shows like new and has been kept in mint condition, offering a clean, modern feel that’s truly move-in ready. Step inside to a light and bright split floor plan designed for both comfort and privacy. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the eat-in kitchen, perfect for casual dining and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space, modern finishes, and a layout that makes everyday living easy and functional. Enjoy the look and durability of luxury vinyl flooring throughout, adding both style and low-maintenance convenience. The home’s interior laundry room provides added practicality and ease. The primary suite is thoughtfully separated from the guest bedrooms, creating a private retreat complete with an en-suite bathroom. On the opposite side of the home, you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a full bath—ideal for family, guests, or a home office setup. This property has been meticulously cared for, offering peace of mind for buyers looking for a newer home without the wait of new construction. Every detail reflects pride of ownership, from its spotless interior to its overall condition. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home combines modern living with everyday convenience. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a like-new home in a growing community—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Eat-in kitchen
• Private retreat

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1372 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $200k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,556 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,699
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -12.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2801 SW 139th St	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	910 (-10%)	12mo	$205,000	$225	63
14421 SW 28th Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+3%)	24mo	$229,900	$221	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-29,091
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,527
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1372
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,766 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,543/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $247	-5% $191	+0% $134	+5% $77	+10% $21
Rent	-10% $-5	-5% $64	+0% $134	+5% $204	+10% $274
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $185	base $134	+0.5pp $82	+1.0pp $30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3011 SW 140th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,695	$1.27	22d	1	0.49mi
2730 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,725	$1.26	22d	1	0.61mi
2632 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,675	$1.13	15d	1	0.64mi
2598 SW 147th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	15d	1	0.85mi
3313 SW 147th St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$1,400	$1.25	22d	1	0.86mi
14430 SW 34th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,350	$1.32	15d	1	0.93mi
14693 SW 21st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,675	$1.20	15d	1	0.99mi
4004 SW 138th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,695	$1.26	22d	1	1.06mi
13731 SW 40th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	15d	1	1.14mi
14856 SW 35th Cir Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,450	$1.40	15d	1	1.14mi
2663 SW 152nd Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,600	$1.32	15d	1	1.28mi
2603 SW 152nd Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	1.5	1402	$1,550	$1.11	15d	1	1.29mi
3567 SW 151st St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,450	$1.29	22d	1	1.29mi
4309 SW 143rd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,799	$1.45	15d	1	1.35mi
13805 SW 43rd Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,800	$1.20	22d	1	1.36mi
14193 SW 44th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,599	$1.10	15d	1	1.45mi
14525 SW 42nd Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,850	$1.38	15d	1	1.45mi
15434 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,780	$1.27	15d	1	1.48mi
3971 SW 130th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1485	$2,000	$1.35	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $200,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $210,000 1518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1518 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home built in 2020, located in desirable Unit 1 of Marion Oaks. This home shows like new and has been kept in mint condition, offering a clean, modern feel that’s truly move-in ready. Step inside to a light and bright split floor plan designed for both comfort and privacy. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the eat-in kitchen, perfect for casual dining and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space, modern finishes, and a layout that makes everyday living easy and functional. Enjoy the look and durability of luxury vinyl flooring throughout, adding both style and low-maintenance convenience. The home’s interior laundry room provides added practicality and ease. The primary suite is thoughtfully separated from the guest bedrooms, creating a private retreat complete with an en-suite bathroom. On the opposite side of the home, you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a full bath—ideal for family, guests, or a home office setup. This property has been meticulously cared for, offering peace of mind for buyers looking for a newer home without the wait of new construction. Every detail reflects pride of ownership, from its spotless interior to its overall condition. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home combines modern living with everyday convenience. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a like-new home in a growing community—schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-05-15
    price $215,000 1518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1518 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home built in 2020, located in desirable Unit 1 of Marion Oaks. This home shows like new and has been kept in mint condition, offering a clean, modern feel that’s truly move-in ready. Step inside to a light and bright split floor plan designed for both comfort and privacy. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the eat-in kitchen, perfect for casual dining and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space, modern finishes, and a layout that makes everyday living easy and functional. Enjoy the look and durability of luxury vinyl flooring throughout, adding both style and low-maintenance convenience. The home’s interior laundry room provides added practicality and ease. The primary suite is thoughtfully separated from the guest bedrooms, creating a private retreat complete with an en-suite bathroom. On the opposite side of the home, you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a full bath—ideal for family, guests, or a home office setup. This property has been meticulously cared for, offering peace of mind for buyers looking for a newer home without the wait of new construction. Every detail reflects pride of ownership, from its spotless interior to its overall condition. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home combines modern living with everyday convenience. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a like-new home in a growing community—schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-04-13
    price $220,000 1518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1518 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home built in 2020, located in desirable Unit 1 of Marion Oaks. This home shows like new and has been kept in mint condition, offering a clean, modern feel that’s truly move-in ready. Step inside to a light and bright split floor plan designed for both comfort and privacy. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the eat-in kitchen, perfect for casual dining and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space, modern finishes, and a layout that makes everyday living easy and functional. Enjoy the look and durability of luxury vinyl flooring throughout, adding both style and low-maintenance convenience. The home’s interior laundry room provides added practicality and ease. The primary suite is thoughtfully separated from the guest bedrooms, creating a private retreat complete with an en-suite bathroom. On the opposite side of the home, you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a full bath—ideal for family, guests, or a home office setup. This property has been meticulously cared for, offering peace of mind for buyers looking for a newer home without the wait of new construction. Every detail reflects pride of ownership, from its spotless interior to its overall condition. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home combines modern living with everyday convenience. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a like-new home in a growing community—schedule your showing today!

20. 2026-03-27
    listed $230,000 Active 1518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1518 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home built in 2020, located in desirable Unit 1 of Marion Oaks. This home shows like new and has been kept in mint condition, offering a clean, modern feel that’s truly move-in ready. Step inside to a light and bright split floor plan designed for both comfort and privacy. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the eat-in kitchen, perfect for casual dining and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space, modern finishes, and a layout that makes everyday living easy and functional. Enjoy the look and durability of luxury vinyl flooring throughout, adding both style and low-maintenance convenience. The home’s interior laundry room provides added practicality and ease. The primary suite is thoughtfully separated from the guest bedrooms, creating a private retreat complete with an en-suite bathroom. On the opposite side of the home, you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a full bath—ideal for family, guests, or a home office setup. This property has been meticulously cared for, offering peace of mind for buyers looking for a newer home without the wait of new construction. Every detail reflects pride of ownership, from its spotless interior to its overall condition. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home combines modern living with everyday convenience. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a like-new home in a growing community—schedule your showing today!

21. 2020-03-31
    soldstatus $127,900 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION! HURRY!! THERE MAY STILL BE TIME TO PICK SOME OF YOUR OWN COLORS! Construction started in fall 2019 and is anticipated to be completed in spring 2020. This home is warm and cozy! The open, split plan is perfect for families and visiting guests! From the moment you walk through the front door you will feel the openness with the cathedral ceiling in the foyer, living room, and dining area! The kitchen comes complete with a new range, dishwasher, and amble counter space and cabinetry! Enjoy the morning cup of coffee at breakfast bar! Do laundry with ease in the inside laundry room! This home rests just under a 1/4 acre ~

22. 2019-10-22
    listed $125,900 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION! HURRY!! THERE MAY STILL BE TIME TO PICK SOME OF YOUR OWN COLORS! Construction started in fall 2019 and is anticipated to be completed in spring 2020. This home is warm and cozy! The open, split plan is perfect for families and visiting guests! From the moment you walk through the front door you will feel the openness with the cathedral ceiling in the foyer, living room, and dining area! The kitchen comes complete with a new range, dishwasher, and amble counter space and cabinetry! Enjoy the morning cup of coffee at breakfast bar! Do laundry with ease in the inside laundry room! This home rests just under a 1/4 acre ~

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,543 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$117/yr (+$10/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,543
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,767
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$424
• After-tax cash flow: $2,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+66.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-31 Sold (MLS) $127,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-22 Listed $125,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+23.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,543 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.