12641 Kelly Rd · Detroit, MI 48224

$34,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Townhouse public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1943 3,485 sqft lot $42/sqft · 35% below area Est $54k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE DROP FOR A QUICK SALE! LAND CONTRACT TERMS ARE NEGOTIABLE ------------------------------------------------------------ 4,000 DOWN 707 PER MONTH 5 years NO BALLOON PAYMENT REQUIRED HALF DUPLEX FOR SALE ONLY. Showings are available anytime. Surveillance in effect. Seller is looking for a quick closing!

Key facts

• 3,485 sq ft lot
• Built 1943
• Listed 19 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $34,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$53,522) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.0% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 484 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $35k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $34,376 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.06%
• DSCR: 4.61
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,522
• List price: $34,900
• Delta: -34.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.45×
• Total profit: $33,746
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.49×
• Total profit: $73,181
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48224

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 484
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,111/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $367

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15010 Cedargrove St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1018	$1,350	$1.33	43d	1	0.29mi
15494 Mapleridge St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	937	$1,275	$1.36	43d	1	0.35mi
12201 Morang Ave Unit 8 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	610	$875	$1.43	43d	1	0.48mi
10644 Stratman St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	17d	1	0.64mi
11235 Roxbury St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1062	$1,325	$1.25	17d	1	0.67mi
11611 Morang Ave Detroit, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	709	$1,040	$1.47	43d	1	0.69mi
12716 Riad St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	974	$1,275	$1.31	17d	1	0.70mi
11776 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	964	$1,150	$1.19	11d	1	0.75mi
11529 Roxbury St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	12d	1	0.79mi
10141 Roxbury St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1115	$1,000	$0.90	43d	1	0.84mi
10404 Somerset Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,475	$1.33	3d	1	0.85mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	15d	1	0.90mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	43d	1	0.90mi
14103 Rochelle Ave Unit 3 Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	43d	1	0.90mi
15909 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	894	$1,266	$1.42	43d	1	0.93mi
9927 Beaconsfield St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	942	$1,375	$1.46	15d	1	0.94mi
9516 Wayburn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	17d	1	0.95mi
19144 Moross Rd Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	43d	1	0.95mi
16241 Seven Mile E Unit 4 Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	650	$650	$1.00	43d	1	0.95mi
16212 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	12d	1	0.97mi
9747 Somerset Ave Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	797	$1,100	$1.38	43d	1	1.02mi
10177 Boleyn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	767	$1,250	$1.63	43d	1	1.03mi
10400 Britain St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	890	$1,100	$1.24	43d	1	1.05mi
10037 Grayton St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	3d	1	1.07mi
10370 Britain St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.07mi
10692 Meuse St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	955	$1,250	$1.31	12d	1	1.08mi
14461 Lappin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	989	$1,150	$1.16	17d	1	1.10mi
13400 Longview St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,400	$1.40	43d	1	1.12mi
19639 Moross Rd Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.17mi
9140 Whittier Ave Unit 1 Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	550	$700	$1.27	43d	1	1.18mi
19442 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	17d	1	1.18mi
9190 Hayes St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	15d	1	1.18mi
13503 E McNichols Rd Unit 7 Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	750	$800	$1.07	17d	1	1.23mi
13137 Elmdale St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1115	$1,400	$1.26	24d	1	1.24mi
12740 August St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	5d	1	1.29mi
10985 Peerless St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,364	$1.36	5d	1	1.30mi
19152 Woodside St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	916	$1,500	$1.64	17d	1	1.32mi
19982 McCormick St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	866	$1,200	$1.39	3d	1	1.34mi
19661 Kenosha St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	24d	1	1.35mi
15030 Rossini Dr Unit 2 Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	720	$800	$1.11	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 314-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $34,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 298-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $37,500 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $39,900 Active 1 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    historical
17. 2026-05-09
    historical
18. 2026-03-17
    price $34,900
19. 2026-03-16
    price $34,900
20. 2026-03-13
    price $39,900
21. 2026-03-13
    price $39,900
22. 2026-03-08
    price $37,900
23. 2026-03-08
    price $37,900
24. 2026-03-06
    price $39,000
25. 2026-03-05
    price $39,000
26. 2026-02-19
    price $39,900
27. 2026-02-19
    price $39,900
28. 2026-02-17
    price $42,900
29. 2026-02-17
    price $42,900
30. 2026-02-06
    listed $44,900 Active
31. 2026-02-06
    listed $44,900 Active
32. 2026-02-05
    soldstatus $15,000 Closed
33. 2026-02-05
    soldstatus $15,000 Closed
34. 2026-02-04
    status Pending
35. 2026-02-04
    status Pending
36. 2025-12-18
    price $15,000
37. 2025-12-18
    price $15,000
38. 2025-12-06
    price $18,000
39. 2025-12-05
    status Active
40. 2025-12-05
    price $18,000
41. 2025-12-05
    status Active
42. 2025-10-22
    status Pending
43. 2025-10-22
    status Pending
44. 2025-09-15
    listed $15,000 Active
45. 2025-09-15
    listed $15,000 Active
46. 2019-11-02
    historical
47. 2019-11-02
    historical
48. 2019-11-01
    status Active
49. 2019-10-23
    historical
50. 2019-09-05
    listed $29,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,111 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,111 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$1,111
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $7,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,888
• After-tax cash flow: $6,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,668
• Household income: $44,856
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2515.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 8% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.38%
• Current HPI: 161.886
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+20.3% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $37,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $37,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $39,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $39,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $42,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $42,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-06 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-06 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-05 Sold (MLS) $15,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-05 Sold (MLS) $15,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-04 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-02-04 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $15,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $15,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $18,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $18,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-22 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-10-22 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $15,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-15 Listed $15,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-11-02 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2019-11-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-11-01 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2019-10-23 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2019-09-05 Listed $29,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-09-05 Listed $29,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,111 · -47.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.