3819 Pomelo Dr · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$354,490

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,077 sqft · Land · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 6,050 sqft lot $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to the Lakeside, one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Harmony at Lake Eloise community in Winter Haven, Florida. Take your pick between two artfully designed exteriors. Inside this beautiful 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom home, you'll find 2,077 square feet of comfortable living. The living area is an open concept, where your kitchen, living, and dining areas blend seamlessly into a space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features modern cabinets, quartz countertops, and sleek stainless-steel appliances, which are sure to both turn heads and make meal prep easy. You'll never be too far from the action with the living and dining area righ

Key facts

• One story floorplans
• Quartz countertops
• Modern cabinets

Tags

• ONE STORY FLOORPLANS
• ARTFULLY DESIGNED EXTERIORS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• MODERN CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $354k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John Snively Elementary (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 399 students, 72% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,829/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 949% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,898 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-76,077
• Equity at exit: $52,856

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-98,514
• Equity at exit: $30,650

Cash invested: $99,257 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,829 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,859
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$443 /mo · $5,317/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,139

Max offer price $319,052

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-122	+0% $-245	+5% $-367	+10% $-490
Rent	-10% $-468	-5% $-357	+0% $-245	+5% $-133	+10% $-21
Rate	-1.0pp $-66	-0.5pp $-155	base $-245	+0.5pp $-337	+1.0pp $-430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,622
• Closing costs: $10,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1504 Hummingbird Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1942	$2,599	$1.34	24d	1	0.39mi
1504 Hummingbird Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1942	$2,599	$1.34	4d	1	0.39mi
2442 Taloncrest Ct Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,700	$1.46	24d	1	1.11mi
2014 8th Ter SE Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.5	2722	$3,450	$1.27	4d	1	1.31mi
2029 Carroll Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,500	$1.19	22d	1	1.33mi
2347 Aquiline Nest St Eagle Lake, FL	5.0	3.0	2601	$2,700	$1.04	4d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   listed $354,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,857
• − Property taxes: −$5,317
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,716
• − Management: −$2,716
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$10,312
• Taxable loss: −$9,103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,185
• After-tax cash flow: $-754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $354,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid