2513 E Brinkley Dr · Spring Lake, NC 28390

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1965 0.43 ac lot Est $157k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enter this home through your covered front porch in to the living room with a coat closet. On the other side of the living room you will find your kitchen and a dining room. The home has three bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. The large backyard provides space for entertaining, children or pets. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Kitchen
• Living room

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LIVING ROOM
• COAT CLOSET
• KITCHEN
• DINING ROOM
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 covered space
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Located in the OVERHILLS subdivision
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedrooms included in room count)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating)
• Interior features: Window coverings and blinds; Smoke detector(s); Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.5% in Spring Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#543 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Lake Middle (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #406 of 475 statewide, top 86%, 512 students, 99% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $120k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.95%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,040
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2720 Edwards Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	996 (-4%)	6mo	$180,000	$181	80
2711 Heatter Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	925 (-11%)	2mo	$140,000	$151	64
2101 W Brinkley Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,194 (+15%)	4mo	$170,000	$142	60
2801 Murro St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,131 (+9%)	1mo	$200,000	$177	58
2802 E Brinkley Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+6%)	20mo	$165,500	$150	57
2719 Edwards Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+14%)	21mo	$152,900	$129	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $9,507
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $52,309
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28390

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,172/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $984

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $487	-5% $453	+0% $419	+5% $385	+10% $351
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $359	+0% $419	+5% $478	+10% $538
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $449	base $419	+0.5pp $387	+1.0pp $356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2721 Daly Ave Spring Lake, NC	3.0	1.0	925	$1,195	$1.29	24d	1	0.14mi
2712 Heatter Ave Spring Lake, NC	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	22d	1	0.24mi
1166 Pine Knoll Dr Spring Lake, NC	3.0	1.0–3.0	987	$1,560	$1.58	15d	29	0.47mi
801 Shell Dr Spring Lake, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$2,025	$1.69	15d	41	0.69mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-27
   price $120,000
2. 2026-03-19
   status Active
3. 2026-02-20
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-12
   listed $130,000 Active
5. 2019-11-27
   soldstatus $48,000
6. 2018-12-10
   listed $52,000
7. 2006-04-03
   soldstatus $56,000
8. 1993-02-26
   soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,172 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,172 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,172
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,453
• − Management: −$1,453
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,270
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$785
• After-tax cash flow: $4,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Spring Lake

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #543
• US rank: #19811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 24,000
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $62,972
• Rent vs Own: 50.7% rent · 49.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.43%
• Current HPI: 207.9349
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+130.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $120,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-02-20 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $130,000 LPRMLS
• 2019-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-10 Listed $52,000 LPRMLS
• 2006-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,172 · +42.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.