9972 Morning Meadowlark Trl · Ruskin, FL 34219

$399,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · Land · 102 Days on market

Built 2026 9,456 sqft lot $223/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! REDTAG SALE! Receive up to $20,000 towards closing costs, $5,000 towards upgrades and special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender - Now through Sunday, April 26th. Our Newest Community is Set within Southwest Florida's natural beauty and close to many popular area attractions, just 3 miles from I-75. Oakfield Trails neighborhood will consist of single-family homes all designed to meet the needs of today’s modern family. All of our homes feature all-concrete block construction on the first and second floors and D. R. Horton’s state-of-the-art Smart Home Automation system. Enjoy community-wide trails that connect residents to Lakes and Parks, Clubhou

Key facts

• Natural playgrounds
• Pickleball courts
• Resort style pool

Tags

• SMART HOME AUTOMATION SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY WIDE TRAILS
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS
• NATURAL PLAYGROUNDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,932; Monthly HOA amount shown as $223
• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Service Residential; Monthly HOA fee of $223 (includes pool); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, playground, sidewalks; Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18 x 20) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Northwest facing; New construction — completed (projected completion April 3, 2026)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (model: Robie)
• Exterior features: Patio; Sliding doors; Pond view; Trees/landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $330,003 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.93%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-79,834
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-113,955
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,544/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$223
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,410

Max offer price $383,695

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	3d	1	0.52mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	3d	1	0.76mi
11454 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,575	$1.57	15d	1	0.88mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	23d	1	0.92mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	3d	1	0.96mi
11880 Little River Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	23d	1	1.06mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	1d	32	1.09mi
8031 111th Ter E Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3067	$4,150	$1.35	23d	1	1.25mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	23d	1	1.33mi
8818 Gulf Shore Ter Parrish, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,250	$0.98	2d	1	1.38mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	10d	1	1.38mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	23d	1	1.42mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	15d	1	1.42mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	15d	1	1.44mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	23d	1	1.50mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	23d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $223 · $2,676/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $399,000
3. 2026-04-09
   price $407,000
4. 2026-04-02
   price $409,000
5. 2026-03-25
   price $412,000
6. 2026-03-18
   price $414,000
7. 2026-03-12
   price $417,000
8. 2026-01-26
   price $418,990
9. 2026-01-20
   price $414,000
10. 2026-01-08
    listed $418,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,312 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$768/yr (+$64/mo · 30.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$2,544
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − HOA: −$2,676
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$7,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,898
• After-tax cash flow: $858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $407,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $409,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $412,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $414,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $417,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $418,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $414,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Listed $418,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid