14269 Fair Haven Rd · Fair Haven, NY 13156

$249,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1999 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO NEED TO PINCH YOURSELF ITS TRUE, THIS GORGEOUS 10YR OLD CAPE COD THAT FEATURES 3/4 BDRM 2.5 BATHS, FORMAL DINE, FIREPLACE, MASTER BDRM SUITE WITH WHIRLPOOL TUB 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE WITH FINISHED BONUS RM HEATED, HOT TUB ON LARGE DECK ALL ON APP 1.5 ACRE COUNTRY SETTING A PLACE TO CALL HOME MINUTES FROM THE BEACH & TOWN

Key facts

• Walk in attic space
• Heated bonus room
• Full dry basement

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM SUITE
• JACUZZI TUB
• BAMBOO FLOORING
• HEATED BONUS ROOM
• WALK IN ATTIC SPACE
• FULL DRY BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#881 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Red Creek Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #415 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $250k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $242,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.62%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $136,821
• Equity at exit: $199,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $379,574
• Equity at exit: $405,948

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13156

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$393 /mo · $4,712/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,288

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-19
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-08
   status Active
4. 2026-02-05
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-01-21
   listed $249,900 Active
6. 2026-01-20
   historical
7. 2026-01-19
   price $249,900
8. 2025-12-10
   price $269,900
9. 2025-09-24
   price $299,900
10. 2025-09-20
    price $319,900
11. 2025-09-02
    listed $329,900 Active
12. 2010-09-10
    soldstatus $149,900 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    NO NEED TO PINCH YOURSELF ITS TRUE, THIS GORGEOUS 10YR OLD CAPE COD THAT FEATURES 3/4 BDRM 2.5 BATHS, FORMAL DINE, FIREPLACE, MASTER BDRM SUITE WITH WHIRLPOOL TUB 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE WITH FINISHED BONUS RM HEATED, HOT TUB ON LARGE DECK ALL ON APP 1.5 ACRE COUNTRY SETTING A PLACE TO CALL HOME MINUTES FROM THE BEACH & TOWN

13. 2010-09-10
    soldstatus $149,900

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    NO NEED TO PINCH YOURSELF ITS TRUE, THIS GORGEOUS 10YR OLD CAPE COD THAT FEATURES 3/4 BDRM 2.5 BATHS, FORMAL DINE, FIREPLACE, MASTER BDRM SUITE WITH WHIRLPOOL TUB 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE WITH FINISHED BONUS RM HEATED, HOT TUB ON LARGE DECK ALL ON APP 1.5 ACRE COUNTRY SETTING A PLACE TO CALL HOME MINUTES FROM THE BEACH & TOWN

14. 2009-10-03
    listed $149,900 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    NO NEED TO PINCH YOURSELF ITS TRUE, THIS GORGEOUS 10YR OLD CAPE COD THAT FEATURES 3/4 BDRM 2.5 BATHS, FORMAL DINE, FIREPLACE, MASTER BDRM SUITE WITH WHIRLPOOL TUB 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE WITH FINISHED BONUS RM HEATED, HOT TUB ON LARGE DECK ALL ON APP 1.5 ACRE COUNTRY SETTING A PLACE TO CALL HOME MINUTES FROM THE BEACH & TOWN

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,712 · $393/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,712 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,712
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,666
• − Management: −$2,666
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $760
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$182
• After-tax cash flow: $4,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Creek Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624210
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,249
• Composite: 41.35/100
• National rank: #3495
• State rank: #415 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fair Haven

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #881
• US rank: #17161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,108

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 5% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.57%
• Current HPI: 372.8237
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-19 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-08 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-05 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $249,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $249,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $269,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $299,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $319,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $329,900 UNYREIS
• 2010-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $149,900 Public Records
• 2010-09-10 Sold (MLS) $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2009-10-03 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,712 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.