Dorris Plan · Amarillo, TX 79124

$263,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily · 615 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 1,550 square-foot Dorris floor plan offers an easy, approachable layout with features that fit your everyday routine. Brick exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with large walk-in closetCovered back patio

Key facts

• Enclosed pantry
• Full-brick exterior
• Covered back patio

Tags

• FULL-BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN PENINSULA
• ENCLOSED PANTRY
• SECLUDED MASTER SUITE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-515/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 309 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 615 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,466 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 615 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-45,471
• Equity at exit: $39,356

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-42,977
• Equity at exit: $22,822

Cash invested: $73,906 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79124

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,959/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,309

Max offer price $257,740

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $48	+0% $-43	+5% $-134	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-221	-5% $-132	+0% $-43	+5% $46	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $24	base $-43	+0.5pp $-111	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,988
• Closing costs: $7,918
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3013 Swenson St Amarillo, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,400	$1.49	22d	1	0.39mi
2801 Ranch House Rd Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$2,100	$1.74	45d	1	0.47mi
7727 Cervin Dr Amarillo, TX	2.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	45d	1	0.85mi
7603 Canode Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1739	$2,200	$1.27	14d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $263,950 Active 615 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $263,950 Active 614 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $263,950 Active 613 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $263,950 Active 612 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $263,950 Active 610 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $263,950 Active 609 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $263,950 Active 607 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $263,950 Active 606 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $263,950 Active 605 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $263,950 Active 604 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $263,950 Active 601 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $263,950 Active 600 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $263,950 Active 599 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $263,950 Active 598 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $263,950 Active 597 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $263,950 Active 596 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    price $263,950 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    The 1,550 square-foot Dorris floor plan offers an easy, approachable layout with features that fit your everyday routine. Brick exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with large walk-in closetCovered back patio

18. 2025-03-26
    price $256,950 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    The 1,550 square-foot Dorris floor plan offers an easy, approachable layout with features that fit your everyday routine. Brick exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with large walk-in closetCovered back patio

19. 2024-10-11
    listed $257,950 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    The 1,550 square-foot Dorris floor plan offers an easy, approachable layout with features that fit your everyday routine. Brick exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with large walk-in closetCovered back patio

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,785
• − Property taxes: −$3,959
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,164
• − Management: −$2,164
• − Depreciation: −$7,679
• Taxable loss: −$5,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,204
• After-tax cash flow: $689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home with a good condition score and modern features is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• City population: 185,802
• Population (ZIP): 11,800

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.66%
• Current HPI: 165.6073
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $263,950 Zillow
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $256,950 Zillow
• 2024-10-11 Listed $257,950 Zillow