406 S Austin St · Wolfe City, TX 75496

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1965 0.38 ac lot $90/sqft · 34% below area Est $188k · 34% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. If you’ve been looking for a property where you can roll up your sleeves and truly make it your own, this is your opportunity. The home does need some love, attention, and repairs making it ideal for investors, renovators, or buyers eager to create a personalized space from the ground up. Situated next to Wolfe City Elementary School, the location offers everyday convenience. Outside, you’ll find a spacious fenced backyard, which is perfect for pets, play, or future outdoor living ideas. It also includes a storage building for tools or equipment. The heated garage provides excellent space for hobbies, projects, or a workshop setup. With vision and care, this property could be transformed into something truly special.

Key facts

• Heated garage
• Storage building
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE BUILDING
• HEATED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.0% in Wolfe City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,280 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Wolfe City ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #254 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.68%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,396
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -33.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
711 W Turner St	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,336 (-4%)	9mo	$199,000	$149	73
700 W Turner St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (+8%)	9mo	$269,990	$180	64
308 Santa Fe	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+15%)	1mo	$219,000	$137	60
905 Mockingbird	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-3%)	16mo	$219,990	$163	57
912 Mockingbird	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (+1%)	21mo	$229,500	$163	57
415 S Greenville St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,315 (-6%)	12mo	$180,000	$137	56
625 S Houston St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (+6%)	21mo	$219,000	$148	56
304 Washington St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (+10%)	9mo	$220,000	$143	53
501 W Turner St	0.16mi	4/3.5	1,526 (+10%)	22mo	$150,000	$98	52
210 E Witt St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (+8%)	20mo	$199,999	$133	48
507 S Santa Fe St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (+11%)	21mo	$219,900	$142	47
401 E Main St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,190 (-14%)	12mo	$69,000	$58	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $99,084
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.64×
• Total profit: $267,462
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75496

• Home prices YoY: 26.8%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,787/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,084

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $557	-5% $522	+0% $486	+5% $451	+10% $416
Rent	-10% $352	-5% $419	+0% $486	+5% $554	+10% $621
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $518	base $486	+0.5pp $454	+1.0pp $421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
210 E Witt St Wolfe City, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,700	$1.13	0d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-03-28
    price $125,000 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. If you’ve been looking for a property where you can roll up your sleeves and truly make it your own, this is your opportunity. The home does need some love, attention, and repairs making it ideal for investors, renovators, or buyers eager to create a personalized space from the ground up. Situated next to Wolfe City Elementary School, the location offers everyday convenience. Outside, you’ll find a spacious fenced backyard, which is perfect for pets, play, or future outdoor living ideas. It also includes a storage building for tools or equipment. The heated garage provides excellent space for hobbies, projects, or a workshop setup. With vision and care, this property could be transformed into something truly special.

16. 2026-03-01
    listed $130,000 Active 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. If you’ve been looking for a property where you can roll up your sleeves and truly make it your own, this is your opportunity. The home does need some love, attention, and repairs making it ideal for investors, renovators, or buyers eager to create a personalized space from the ground up. Situated next to Wolfe City Elementary School, the location offers everyday convenience. Outside, you’ll find a spacious fenced backyard, which is perfect for pets, play, or future outdoor living ideas. It also includes a storage building for tools or equipment. The heated garage provides excellent space for hobbies, projects, or a workshop setup. With vision and care, this property could be transformed into something truly special.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,787 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$500/yr (+$42/mo · 28.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,787
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,086
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$981
• After-tax cash flow: $4,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wolfe City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846350
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,926
• Composite: 38.98/100
• National rank: #4074
• State rank: #254 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfe City

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #22142

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfe City, TX
• City population: 3,066
• Population (ZIP): 3,066

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 61.17%
• Current HPI: 289.6633
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $130,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,787 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.