100 Linwood Ave · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$189,888

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1946 5,768 sqft lot Est $241k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OUTSTANDING VALUE! & UPDATES! * 4 BEDROOM 1 BATH CAPE FEATURES * GREAT UPDATES INCL * ARC ROOF 2022 (HOUSE) * M/UPDATED WNDWS 2025 * HI-EFF FURNACE 2024 * CENTRAL A/C 2025 * HTWR TANK 2026 * ENTIRE INTERIOR FRESHLY PAINTED 2026 * EAT-IN KITCHEN W/ LUXURY PLANK FLRING 2026 * S/APPLIANCES INCL * REFRIG * ELEC STOVE * UPDATED SINK & FAUCET * NEW CARPET THROUGHOUT 1ST & 2ND FLOOR * NICE SIZED LIVING RM * 2 FIRST FLR BEDRMS * ONE BEDRM IS BEING USED AS 1ST FLR LAUNDRY RM * ALSO FULL BATH ON 1ST FL W/ UPDATED VANITY * FLA/SUN RM ACCESS ALSO FROM 1ST FLR BED RM/LAUNDRY RM * 2ND FL HAS 2 BEDRMS * BUILT-IN SHELVING * LOADS OF STORAGE *

Key facts

• Updated wndws
• Central a/c
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED WNDWS
• HI-EFF FURNACE
• CENTRAL A/C
• HTWR TANK
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• UPDATED SINK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; Three-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Two-story house; Existing construction
• Construction: Composite siding; Copper and PEX plumbing; Architectural shingle roof; Poured foundation; Has full basement with sump pump
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Concrete driveway; Fully fenced yard; Corner, rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Natural woodwork
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $190k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $189,888

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.88%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,164
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
53 Winkler Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (+2%)	2mo	$210,000	$198	66
299 Newell Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,103 (+6%)	2mo	$255,299	$231	60
205 Bannard Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	999 (-4%)	8mo	$186,500	$187	59
157 Newell Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,131 (+8%)	8mo	$269,900	$239	56
346 Maldiner Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	999 (-4%)	9mo	$280,000	$280	56
236 Newell Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	999 (-4%)	16mo	$237,000	$237	55
23 Winkler Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (+2%)	17mo	$215,000	$203	52
20 Nicholas Dr N	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,108 (+6%)	5mo	$160,000	$144	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,540
• Equity at exit: $28,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $49,533
• Equity at exit: $16,418

Cash invested: $53,169 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,452/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,619

Max offer price $189,888

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,472
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	12d	1	0.52mi
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	3d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,888 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 687-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $189,888 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,452 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,831 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$378/yr (+$32/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,452
• − Insurance: −$949
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,871
• − Management: −$1,871
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $84
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20
• After-tax cash flow: $3,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+279.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $189,888 WNYREIS
• 2003-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,452 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.