Lake Manor Plan · Ormond Beach, FL 32174

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 656 Days on market

Excellent condition $560/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bed 2 bath home with a front porch, 2-tone siding, and oversized screen room and carport has blow-you-away curb appeal. The interior of this home is highly-optioned with fully taped and textured walls, painted accent walls in the living areas and bedrooms, pendant lights above the kitchen island, stainless steel appliances with built in microwave, and so much more!

Key facts

• 2-tone siding
• Painted accent walls
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• 2-TONE SIDING
• OVERSIZED SCREEN ROOM
• CARPORT
• FULLY TAPED AND TEXTURED WALLS
• PAINTED ACCENT WALLS

🏗️ New construction. The $149,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $225,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-480 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#55 in FL, #965 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tomoka Elementary School (math 62% / reading 61%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 709 students, 50% FRL); David C. Hinson Sr. Middle School (math 52% / reading 49%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 950 students, 52% FRL); Mainland High School (math 30% / reading 37%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,855 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1687 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 656 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 656 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.14%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,000
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -33.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
924 Willow Run Run	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-3%)	3mo	$225,000	$147	75
49 Laurel Oaks Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-0%)	2mo	$220,000	$141	71
38 Old Macon Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (+3%)	0mo	$257,000	$159	63
50 Woodlands Blvd	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,598 (+2%)	3mo	$200,000	$125	62
22 Laurel Oaks Cir	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-8%)	0mo	$317,500	$220	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-69,448
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-109,469
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.2 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $294,990 ($194/sqft)
• Median days on market: 58 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -25.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32174

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1687
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,070 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$560
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,677

Max offer price $155,547

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-324	-5% $-402	+0% $-480	+5% $-558	+10% $-635
Rent	-10% $-643	-5% $-562	+0% $-480	+5% $-398	+10% $-316
Rate	-1.0pp $-367	-0.5pp $-423	base $-480	+0.5pp $-538	+1.0pp $-598

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Misty Falls Dr Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1289	$1,700	$1.32	123d	1	0.20mi
378 Collins St Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	10d	1	0.24mi
378 Collins St Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	18d	1	0.24mi
29 Reflections Village Dr Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	2075	$2,300	$1.11	107d	1	0.63mi
1953 Nelson Ave Ormond Beach, FL	4.0	1.5	1600	$2,000	$1.25	164d	1	0.64mi
559 Cameo Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,310	$1.38	164d	1	0.64mi
11 Greenfern Cir Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,970	$1.62	123d	1	0.64mi
71 Brookwood Dr Ormond Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,200	$1.14	51d	1	0.68mi
67 Brookwood Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,000	$1.25	10d	1	0.70mi
51 Brookwood Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1791	$1,900	$1.06	51d	1	0.74mi
35 Magnolia Ave Unit 35 Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	10d	1	0.78mi
1088 W Granada Blvd Ormond Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,525	$1.61	2d	6	0.96mi
1826 Carolina Ave Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	1.5	1068	$1,861	$1.74	38d	1	0.96mi
145 Pinion Cir Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,300	$1.56	133d	1	0.97mi
1489 Springleaf Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,100	$1.41	1d	1	1.01mi
765 W Granada Blvd Ormond Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,341	$1.31	10d	1	1.02mi
36 Spring Meadows Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2036	$2,700	$1.33	164d	1	1.04mi
9 Soco Trl Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1729	$2,500	$1.45	29d	1	1.06mi
25 Cherokee Trl Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2056	$2,500	$1.22	10d	1	1.07mi
29 Fair Oaks Cir Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,750	$1.40	20d	1	1.07mi
29 Fair Oaks Cir Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1230	$1,750	$1.42	35d	1	1.07mi
450 Tomoka Ave Apt 212 Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,475	$1.34	133d	1	1.08mi
450 Tomoka Ave Unit 215 Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,650	$1.43	133d	1	1.08mi
118 Pinion Cir Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1367	$2,200	$1.61	15d	1	1.09mi
1767 Valencia Ave Ormond Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1216	$2,100	$1.73	164d	1	1.10mi
145 Green Forest Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,200	$1.35	164d	1	1.13mi
7 Shelly Way Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1812	$2,200	$1.21	10d	1	1.13mi
14 Fair Oaks Cir Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1290	$1,675	$1.30	44d	1	1.13mi
10 Cherokee Trl Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1485	$1,950	$1.31	10d	1	1.17mi
500 Shadow Lakes Blvd Ormond Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	856	$1,599	$1.87	0d	15	1.19mi
4 Cherokee Trl Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1737	$2,300	$1.32	10d	1	1.19mi
402 Fleming Ave Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1495	$2,085	$1.39	49d	1	1.23mi
136 Pine Cone Trl Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1664	$1,780	$1.07	133d	1	1.26mi
62 Big Buck Trl Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2175	$2,500	$1.15	48d	1	1.26mi
7 Stone Haven Trl Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,150	$1.28	107d	1	1.28mi
1420 Alabama Ave Daytona Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1367	$1,824	$1.33	160d	1	1.28mi
162 Pine Cone Trl Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,100	$1.35	155d	1	1.28mi
162 Pine Cone Trl Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,000	$1.29	10d	1	1.28mi
5 Timberline Trl Unit C Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,175	$1.47	123d	1	1.30mi
1215 Alabama Ave Apt A Daytona Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,500	$1.40	51d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 656 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 655 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $149,900 Active 654 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $149,900 Active 653 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 652 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 650 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 649 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 648 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $149,900 Active 647 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $149,900 Active 646 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $149,900 Active 645 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $149,900 Active 644 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $149,900 Active 643 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $149,900 Active 642 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $149,900 Active 641 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $149,900 Active 640 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $149,900 Active 639 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $149,900 Active 638 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $149,900 Active 637 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $149,900 Active 636 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $149,900 Active 635 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $149,900 Active 634 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $149,900 Active 633 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $149,900 Active 632 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $149,900 Active 631 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $149,900 Active 630 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $149,900 Active 629 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $149,900 Active 628 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $149,900 Active 627 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $149,900 Active 626 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 625 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 624 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $149,900 Active 623 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 622 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 621 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 620 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 619 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 618 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 617 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $149,900 Active 616 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $149,900 Active 615 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $149,900 Active 614 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $149,900 Active 612 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    pricedays on market $149,900 Active 611 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $139,900 Active 609 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $139,900 Active 608 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $139,900 Active 607 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $139,900 Active 606 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $139,900 Active 605 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $139,900 Active 604 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − HOA: −$6,720
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$9,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,282
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding and front porch — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Landscaping the front yard — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tomoka Elementary School B FL #634/2,144 Nat'l #6,818/41,679 Middle David C. Hinson Sr. Middle School C FL #246/571 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Mainland High School F FL #400/667 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — Ormond Beach

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #965

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ormond Beach, FL
• County: Volusia County · 572,749 people
• City population: 69,624
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 54,783
• Household income: $71,011
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -327.97%
• Current HPI: 271.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-21 Listed $139,900 Zillow