Lake Manor Plan · Ormond Beach, FL 32174

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 564 Days on market

Excellent condition $560/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bed 2 bath home with a front porch, 2-tone siding, and oversized screen room and carport has blow-you-away curb appeal. The interior of this home is highly-optioned with fully taped and textured walls, painted accent walls in the living areas and bedrooms, pendant lights above the kitchen island, stainless steel appliances with built in microwave, and so much more!

Key facts

• 2-tone siding
• Painted accent walls
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• 2-TONE SIDING
• OVERSIZED SCREEN ROOM
• CARPORT
• FULLY TAPED AND TEXTURED WALLS
• PAINTED ACCENT WALLS

🏗️ New construction. The $139,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $244,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-574 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#55 in FL, #965 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tomoka Elementary School (math 62% / reading 61%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 709 students, 50% FRL); David C. Hinson Sr. Middle School (math 52% / reading 49%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 950 students, 52% FRL); Mainland High School (math 30% / reading 37%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,855 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1349 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 564 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; HOA is 26% of rent.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 564 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.09%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,000
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -42.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Woodlands Blvd	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,598 (+2%)	0mo	$200,000	$125	64
45 Nightingale Ln	1.46mi	3/2.0	1,703 (+9%)	0mo	$325,000	$191	50
1738 Palm Rd	1.18mi	3/2.0	1,923 (+23%)	0mo	$335,000	$174	40
1929 Linda Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-17%)	0mo	$200,000	$154	40
1836 Linda Ave	0.92mi	3/1.0	1,235 (-21%)	0mo	$210,000	$170	36
1238 Alcazar St	1.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,276 (-19%)	0mo	$262,000	$205	35
196 Deer Lake Cir	1.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (-15%)	0mo	$245,000	$184	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-78,598
• Equity at exit: $36,381

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-125,423
• Equity at exit: $21,097

Cash invested: $68,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 40.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $296,500 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 57 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -15.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32174

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1349
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,280
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$305 /mo · $3,660/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$560
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-574

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $160,896

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-406	-5% $-490	+0% $-574	+5% $-659	+10% $-743
Rent	-10% $-742	-5% $-658	+0% $-574	+5% $-491	+10% $-407
Rate	-1.0pp $-451	-0.5pp $-512	base $-574	+0.5pp $-638	+1.0pp $-702

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,000
• Closing costs: $7,320
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Misty Falls Dr Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1289	$1,700	$1.32	32d	1	0.20mi
29 Reflections Village Dr Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	2075	$2,300	$1.11	16d	1	0.63mi
1953 Nelson Ave Ormond Beach, FL	4.0	1.5	1600	$2,000	$1.25	72d	1	0.64mi
559 Cameo Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,310	$1.38	72d	1	0.64mi
11 Greenfern Cir Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,970	$1.62	32d	1	0.64mi
67 Brookwood Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,350	$1.47	41d	1	0.70mi
51 Brookwood Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,100	$1.17	72d	1	0.74mi
35 Magnolia Ave Unit 35 Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	72d	1	0.78mi
1088 W Granada Blvd Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,522	$1.38	16d	5	0.96mi
145 Pinion Cir Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,300	$1.56	41d	1	0.97mi
765 W Granada Blvd Ormond Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,341	$1.31	41d	1	1.02mi
36 Spring Meadows Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2036	$2,700	$1.33	72d	1	1.04mi
25 Cherokee Trl Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2056	$2,500	$1.22	32d	1	1.07mi
450 Tomoka Ave Unit 215 Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,650	$1.43	41d	1	1.08mi
450 Tomoka Ave Apt 212 Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,475	$1.34	41d	1	1.08mi
1767 Valencia Ave Ormond Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1216	$2,100	$1.73	72d	1	1.10mi
145 Green Forest Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,200	$1.35	72d	1	1.13mi
500 Shadow Lakes Blvd Ormond Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	856	$1,645	$1.92	15d	18	1.19mi
402 Fleming Ave Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1495	$2,335	$1.56	16d	1	1.23mi
136 Pine Cone Trl Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1664	$1,780	$1.07	41d	1	1.26mi
7 Stone Haven Trl Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,150	$1.28	16d	1	1.28mi
1420 Alabama Ave Daytona Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1367	$1,824	$1.33	68d	1	1.28mi
162 Pine Cone Trl Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,100	$1.35	63d	1	1.28mi
5 Timberline Trl Unit C Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,175	$1.47	31d	1	1.30mi
188 Birch Tree Pl Daytona Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,500	$1.35	16d	1	1.39mi
1435 Atlanta Dr Daytona Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	72d	1	1.39mi
1235 Alcazar St Daytona Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	72d	1	1.46mi
165 Birch Tree Pl Daytona Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,600	$1.41	41d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 564 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 563 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $139,900 Active 562 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $139,900 Active 561 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $139,900 Active 560 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $139,900 Active 559 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 556 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $139,900 Active 554 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $139,900 Active 553 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $139,900 Active 551 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $139,900 Active 550 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $139,900 Active 549 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $139,900 Active 548 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $139,900 Active 547 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $139,900 Active 546 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $139,900 Active 541 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $139,900 Active 540 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $139,900 Active 539 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $139,900 Active 538 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $139,900 Active 537 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $139,900 Active 536 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $139,900 Active 535 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $139,900 Active 534 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 532 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $139,900 Active 531 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 530 DOM
27. 2026-07-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 528 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 526 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 525 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $139,900 Active 524 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $139,900 Active 523 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $139,900 Active 522 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $139,900 Active 521 DOM
34. 2026-06-25
    days on market $139,900 Active 519 DOM
35. 2026-06-23
    days on market $139,900 Active 517 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $139,900 Active 516 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $139,900 Active 513 DOM
38. 2026-06-17
    days on market $139,900 Active 512 DOM
39. 2026-06-16
    days on market $139,900 Active 511 DOM
40. 2026-06-15
    days on market $139,900 Active 510 DOM
41. 2026-06-14
    days on market $139,900 Active 508 DOM
42. 2026-06-10
    days on market $139,900 Active 505 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $139,900 Active 504 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 503 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 502 DOM
46. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 499 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 498 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 497 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 496 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 495 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,668
• − Property taxes: −$3,660
• − Insurance: −$1,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − HOA: −$6,720
• − Depreciation: −$7,098
• Taxable loss: −$11,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,648
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding and front porch — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Landscaping the front yard — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tomoka Elementary School B FL #634/2,144 Nat'l #6,818/41,679 Middle David C. Hinson Sr. Middle School C FL #246/571 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Mainland High School F FL #400/667 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — Ormond Beach

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #965

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ormond Beach, FL
• County: Volusia County · 572,749 people
• City population: 69,624
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 54,783
• Household income: $71,011
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -327.97%
• Current HPI: 271.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-21 Listed $139,900 Zillow