817 Jay St · Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$99,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,526 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1931 7,392 sqft lot $65/sqft · at area comps Est $99k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This conveniently situated family residence is a short distance to everything Ogdensburg has to offer with the Boys & Girls Club, Hamilton Park, and St. Mary’s Cathedral easily walkable. The main level features an open-concept kitchen and dining space, a living room w/ woodstove insert, laundry room, and a half-bath. Upstairs, you’ll find a full bathroom with a jetted tub/shower, three bedrooms w/ hardwood beneath any that have carpeting, and an additional bonus room perfect for use as a closet, office, or guest room. Extra storage is available in the full attic via the pull-down attic ladder. The spacious, fenced backyard is pre-wired for a hot tub. The property also includes a one-car garage and a newer metal roof on both structures. The on-demand water heater is a rental. Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Jetted tub
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LIVING ROOM WITH WOODSTOVE
• JETTED TUB
• FENCED BACKYARD
• PRE-WIRED FOR HOT TUB
• FULL ATTIC STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.3% in Ogdensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Ogdensburg City School District (town): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.47%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,626
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 1.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
616 Elizabeth St	0.19mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,492 (-2%)	4mo	$78,000	$52	79
931 Elizabeth St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,550 (+2%)	6mo	$88,000	$57	72
924 Caroline St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+3%)	6mo	$86,500	$55	66
1701 Ford St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-0%)	4mo	$45,000	$30	66
624 Morris St	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-15%)	6mo	$42,000	$32	64
929 Ford St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,750 (+15%)	3mo	$65,000	$37	58
123 Franklin St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-10%)	4mo	$119,000	$86	57
519 Riverside Ave	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,623 (+6%)	7mo	$76,000	$47	57
906 Franklin St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,328 (-13%)	4mo	$47,000	$35	56
310 Seymour St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,320 (-14%)	2mo	$22,000	$17	55
1114 Pickering St	0.67mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,550 (+2%)	6mo	$17,000	$11	54
330 Park St	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,306 (-14%)	8mo	$50,000	$38	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $19,238
• Equity at exit: $34,454

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $57,912
• Equity at exit: $46,058

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13669

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 829-char remark

   Show marketing remark (829 chars)

   This conveniently situated family residence is a short distance to everything Ogdensburg has to offer with the Boys & Girls Club, Hamilton Park, and St. Mary’s Cathedral easily walkable. The main level features an open-concept kitchen and dining space, a living room w/ woodstove insert, laundry room, and a half-bath. Upstairs, you’ll find a full bathroom with a jetted tub/shower, three bedrooms w/ hardwood beneath any that have carpeting, and an additional bonus room perfect for use as a closet, office, or guest room. Extra storage is available in the full attic via the pull-down attic ladder. The spacious, fenced backyard is pre-wired for a hot tub. The property also includes a one-car garage and a newer metal roof on both structures. The on-demand water heater is a rental. Schedule a showing today!

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $99,900 Active 829-char remark

   Show marketing remark (829 chars)

   This conveniently situated family residence is a short distance to everything Ogdensburg has to offer with the Boys & Girls Club, Hamilton Park, and St. Mary’s Cathedral easily walkable. The main level features an open-concept kitchen and dining space, a living room w/ woodstove insert, laundry room, and a half-bath. Upstairs, you’ll find a full bathroom with a jetted tub/shower, three bedrooms w/ hardwood beneath any that have carpeting, and an additional bonus room perfect for use as a closet, office, or guest room. Extra storage is available in the full attic via the pull-down attic ladder. The spacious, fenced backyard is pre-wired for a hot tub. The property also includes a one-car garage and a newer metal roof on both structures. The on-demand water heater is a rental. Schedule a showing today!

3. 2003-01-24
   soldstatus $69,900
4. 1994-08-05
   soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,164
• − Management: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,719
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$413
• After-tax cash flow: $2,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogdensburg City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621660
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,253
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5497
• State rank: #531 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ogdensburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogdensburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,615

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Polish 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Current HPI: 264.0261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+58.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — SLCMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $99,900 SLCMLS
• 2003-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 1994-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,095 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.