8944 E Lazywood Pl · Carefree, AZ 85377

$1,924,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,593 sqft · SingleFamily · 89 Days on market

Built 1984 1.08 ac lot $419/sqft · 24% below area Est $2537k · 24% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! This extraordinary estate truly has it all. Situated on over an acre in a private, quiet setting with stunning mountain views, this exceptional property offers space, versatility, and resort-style living. Highlights include a 37-ft RV garage, a detached 1,150 sq ft guest house with its own driveway and garage, a 3,443 sq ft main residence with a 1,085 sq ft garage and additional storage room, and a beautiful resort-style pool surrounded by lush landscaping creating your own private desert oasis. Even better--the solar lease is paid in full. Perfect for multigenerational living, guests, or a potential home office or hobby space, this rare property offers flexibility and privacy while still providing convenient access to nearby amenities. nearby amenities. The main driveway leads to charming front courtyard and spacious garage with convenient access to the RV garage, a private office, and the main residence. Inside, guests are welcomed by a grand foyer that opens to a formal dining room with fireplace, and an inviting gathering space featuring a pool table with custom dining tabletop and seating for ten and the private office with its own bathroom. The spacious kitchen and family room are designed for entertaining with seamless access to the patio. Step outside to the expansive covered patio overlooking the resort-style pool and guest house. Enjoy a built-in BBQ bar, impressive outdoor fireplace, and sweeping mountain views--perfect for entertaining, outdoor living, or relaxing in your own private retreat. The grounds are equally impressive, featuring a fully fenced, high-producing citrus orchard with lemons, five varieties of oranges, tangerine, blood orange, grapefruit, key lime, Mexican lime, apricot, plums, and pomegranate, all protected from deer. A separate fenced dog run attached to the main home provides a safe outdoor space for pets. The spacious primary suite offers a luxurious bath, large walk-in closet, and a full wall of additional closets. Two additional bedrooms each include private bathrooms, with one offering its own private patio. Additional features include an exercise room and an oversized laundry room with abundant cabinetry, granite counters, freezer, and direct backyard and pool access. Built in 2005, the detached guest house enjoys beautiful mountain views and multiple patios, along with a full kitchen, breakfast nook, family room, bedroom, stacked laundry, and an easily accessible bathroom--ideal for guests, extended family, rental potential, or poolside convenience. All this on over an acre with low HOA and property taxes. Properties with acreage, RV garages, guest houses, and resort-style outdoor living are rare--making this a truly special opportunity that must be seen to be fully appreciated.

Key facts

• 1.08 acre lot
• 6 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $1.92M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.74M (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.74M (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $131k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $118k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $539k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$210k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.81M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $340k; list at $1.92M implies a 466% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,738,995 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,536,539
• List price: $1,924,000
• Delta: -24.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37200 N Cave Creek Rd #1002	0.45mi	4/4.5	4,873 (+6%)	3mo	$4,275,000	$877	66
37200 N Cave Creek Rd #1009	0.45mi	3/3.5 (-1)	4,556 (-1%)	5mo	$3,450,000	$757	64
8742 E Woodley Way	0.58mi	4/5.0	4,613 (+0%)	13mo	$2,295,000	$498	59
36618 N Wildflower Rd	0.55mi	4/3.5	4,274 (-7%)	3mo	$1,200,000	$281	56
9277 E Happy Hollow Dr	0.72mi	4/4.5	4,788 (+4%)	16mo	$4,500,000	$940	46
37200 N Cave Creek Rd #1023	0.45mi	4/4.5	3,951 (-14%)	11mo	$4,200,000	$1,063	46
37200 N Cave Creek Rd #1005	0.45mi	4/4.5	3,934 (-14%)	11mo	$3,995,000	$1,016	46
35556 N 87th Pl	0.70mi	5/3.5 (+1)	4,295 (-6%)	11mo	$2,099,000	$489	38
9445 E Quail Trl	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,977 (-13%)	3mo	$1,520,000	$382	33
36811 N Wildflower Rd	0.71mi	4/5.5	4,019 (-12%)	18mo	$1,818,500	$452	26
35519 N 87th Pl	0.70mi	5/5.5 (+1)	4,132 (-10%)	20mo	$1,650,000	$399	25
35624 N 86th Pl	0.69mi	3/3.5 (-1)	4,001 (-13%)	20mo	$1,725,000	$431	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $598,595
• Equity at exit: $1,225,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $1,735,572
• Equity at exit: $2,236,255

Cash invested: $538,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $17,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,090
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,405 /mo · $28,860/yr
• Insurance: −$802
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,652
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,837

Max offer price $1,924,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,766	-5% $1,102	+0% $437	+5% $-228	+10% $-893
Rent	-10% $-937	-5% $-250	+0% $437	+5% $1,124	+10% $1,811
Rate	-1.0pp $1,406	-0.5pp $926	base $437	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-569

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $481,000
• Closing costs: $57,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9778 E Jagged Peak Rd Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	4.5	5089	$4,875	$0.96	25d	1	0.94mi
9361 E Sundance Trl Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	5.5	5495	$20,000	$3.64	45d	1	1.07mi
9492 E Sundance Trl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3488	$18,000	$5.16	45d	1	1.13mi
3000 Ironwood Rd Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3930	$13,400	$3.41	45d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,924,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,924,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,924,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,924,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,924,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,924,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,924,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,924,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,924,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,924,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,924,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,924,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,924,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,924,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,924,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $1,924,000 2776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2776 chars)

    Wow! This extraordinary estate truly has it all. Situated on over an acre in a private, quiet setting with stunning mountain views, this exceptional property offers space, versatility, and resort-style living. Highlights include a 37-ft RV garage, a detached 1,150 sq ft guest house with its own driveway and garage, a 3,443 sq ft main residence with a 1,085 sq ft garage and additional storage room, and a beautiful resort-style pool surrounded by lush landscaping creating your own private desert oasis. Even better--the solar lease is paid in full. Perfect for multigenerational living, guests, or a potential home office or hobby space, this rare property offers flexibility and privacy while still providing convenient access to nearby amenities. nearby amenities. The main driveway leads to charming front courtyard and spacious garage with convenient access to the RV garage, a private office, and the main residence. Inside, guests are welcomed by a grand foyer that opens to a formal dining room with fireplace, and an inviting gathering space featuring a pool table with custom dining tabletop and seating for ten and the private office with its own bathroom. The spacious kitchen and family room are designed for entertaining with seamless access to the patio. Step outside to the expansive covered patio overlooking the resort-style pool and guest house. Enjoy a built-in BBQ bar, impressive outdoor fireplace, and sweeping mountain views--perfect for entertaining, outdoor living, or relaxing in your own private retreat. The grounds are equally impressive, featuring a fully fenced, high-producing citrus orchard with lemons, five varieties of oranges, tangerine, blood orange, grapefruit, key lime, Mexican lime, apricot, plums, and pomegranate, all protected from deer. A separate fenced dog run attached to the main home provides a safe outdoor space for pets. The spacious primary suite offers a luxurious bath, large walk-in closet, and a full wall of additional closets. Two additional bedrooms each include private bathrooms, with one offering its own private patio. Additional features include an exercise room and an oversized laundry room with abundant cabinetry, granite counters, freezer, and direct backyard and pool access. Built in 2005, the detached guest house enjoys beautiful mountain views and multiple patios, along with a full kitchen, breakfast nook, family room, bedroom, stacked laundry, and an easily accessible bathroom--ideal for guests, extended family, rental potential, or poolside convenience. All this on over an acre with low HOA and property taxes. Properties with acreage, RV garages, guest houses, and resort-style outdoor living are rare--making this a truly special opportunity that must be seen to be fully appreciated.

17. 2026-03-24
    listed $1,949,000 Active 2776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2776 chars)

    Wow! This extraordinary estate truly has it all. Situated on over an acre in a private, quiet setting with stunning mountain views, this exceptional property offers space, versatility, and resort-style living. Highlights include a 37-ft RV garage, a detached 1,150 sq ft guest house with its own driveway and garage, a 3,443 sq ft main residence with a 1,085 sq ft garage and additional storage room, and a beautiful resort-style pool surrounded by lush landscaping creating your own private desert oasis. Even better--the solar lease is paid in full. Perfect for multigenerational living, guests, or a potential home office or hobby space, this rare property offers flexibility and privacy while still providing convenient access to nearby amenities. nearby amenities. The main driveway leads to charming front courtyard and spacious garage with convenient access to the RV garage, a private office, and the main residence. Inside, guests are welcomed by a grand foyer that opens to a formal dining room with fireplace, and an inviting gathering space featuring a pool table with custom dining tabletop and seating for ten and the private office with its own bathroom. The spacious kitchen and family room are designed for entertaining with seamless access to the patio. Step outside to the expansive covered patio overlooking the resort-style pool and guest house. Enjoy a built-in BBQ bar, impressive outdoor fireplace, and sweeping mountain views--perfect for entertaining, outdoor living, or relaxing in your own private retreat. The grounds are equally impressive, featuring a fully fenced, high-producing citrus orchard with lemons, five varieties of oranges, tangerine, blood orange, grapefruit, key lime, Mexican lime, apricot, plums, and pomegranate, all protected from deer. A separate fenced dog run attached to the main home provides a safe outdoor space for pets. The spacious primary suite offers a luxurious bath, large walk-in closet, and a full wall of additional closets. Two additional bedrooms each include private bathrooms, with one offering its own private patio. Additional features include an exercise room and an oversized laundry room with abundant cabinetry, granite counters, freezer, and direct backyard and pool access. Built in 2005, the detached guest house enjoys beautiful mountain views and multiple patios, along with a full kitchen, breakfast nook, family room, bedroom, stacked laundry, and an easily accessible bathroom--ideal for guests, extended family, rental potential, or poolside convenience. All this on over an acre with low HOA and property taxes. Properties with acreage, RV garages, guest houses, and resort-style outdoor living are rare--making this a truly special opportunity that must be seen to be fully appreciated.

18. 2026-02-09
    historical
19. 2026-01-22
    status Active
20. 2026-01-14
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale
21. 2025-10-27
    listed $1,949,000 Active
22. 2003-10-21
    soldstatus $340,000
23. 2003-10-21
    soldstatus $340,000
24. 2003-08-14
    historical
25. 2003-04-17
    listed $395,000
26. 2002-04-02
    historical
27. 2002-02-13
    listed $319,000
28. 2000-05-10
    soldstatus $288,000
29. 2000-05-01
    soldstatus $288,000
30. 2000-03-24
    historical
31. 2000-03-10
    listed $310,000
32. 1983-07-11
    soldstatus $31,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $208,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$107,774
• − Property taxes: −$28,860
• − Insurance: −$9,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$16,694
• − Management: −$16,694
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$55,971
• Taxable loss: −$26,994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,479
• After-tax cash flow: $11,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+6007.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $1,924,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $1,949,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $1,949,000 ARMLS
• 2003-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $340,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-21 Sold (MLS) $340,000 ARMLS
• 2003-08-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-04-17 Listed $395,000 ARMLS
• 2002-04-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-02-13 Listed $319,000 ARMLS
• 2000-05-10 Sold (MLS) $288,000 ARMLS
• 2000-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $288,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2000-03-10 Listed $310,000 ARMLS
• 1983-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,158 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.