4915 Swegle Rd #81 · Four Corners, OR 97301

$29,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1978 $24/sqft · 74% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on market: NO fault of seller. Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a desirable 55+ community. This home sits on a spacious lot with a fully fenced backyard, covered front porch, covered rear deck, carport with built-in storage, and an extra shed. Inside, the dining room features a beautiful china hutch and dimmable lighting. An additional family room adds even more living space. Lot rent is $995/mo and includes water, sewer, and trash. Community amenities include a pool, kitchen, TV room, meeting room, and sauna. Sold AS-IS. It passed appraisal with previous buyer.

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 1978

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $29,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$115,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $992 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.1% vs local median 3.9% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in OR, #2,680 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $30k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $29,451 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 142.20%
• DSCR: 7.33
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,000
• List price: $29,900
• Delta: -74.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4915 Swegle Rd #81	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$29,900	$24	99
4915 Swegle Rd NE #3	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (+3%)	4mo	$57,000	$44	86
4915 Swegle Rd	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (+3%)	4mo	$57,000	$44	86
4915 Swegle Rd NE #15	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-8%)	2mo	$57,500	$50	81
4915 NE Swegle Rd #76	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+10%)	5mo	$51,500	$38	80
1932 Cottontail Ct NE	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+4%)	3mo	$349,900	$270	76
1913 Cottontail Ct NE	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+4%)	7mo	$334,900	$258	73
1500 NE Gabriela Ct #16	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+8%)	1mo	$98,000	$73	69
1500 Gabriela Ct #20	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,323 (+6%)	5mo	$132,000	$100	69
857 Hoffman Rd NE #11	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+4%)	6mo	$110,000	$85	54
857 Hoffman Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+4%)	6mo	$110,000	$85	54
2560 Brown Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+4%)	5mo	$412,000	$318	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.44×
• Total profit: $53,916
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.28×
• Total profit: $111,214
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97301

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,518 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $454/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $992

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4768 El Cedro Loop NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,895	$1.41	43d	1	0.52mi
1973 45th Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,360	$1.30	14d	2	0.55mi
4200 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,445	$1.64	23d	1	0.78mi
4889 Saunter Loop NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1186	$1,925	$1.62	43d	1	0.83mi
4116 Market St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	858	$1,350	$1.57	43d	1	0.85mi
4116 Market St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	858	$1,350	$1.57	14d	1	0.85mi
4359 Rodeo Dr NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,245	$1.92	21d	1	0.86mi
4098 Market St NE Unit MT21 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	23d	1	0.87mi
4154 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$1,375	$1.71	14d	6	0.89mi
4341 Center St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	828	$1,130	$1.36	43d	1	0.99mi
4824 Falcon Ct NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1246	$1,995	$1.60	23d	1	1.09mi
1415 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 18 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	43d	1	1.10mi
1415 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 16 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	43d	1	1.10mi
1415 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 33 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,225	$1.44	43d	1	1.10mi
3910-3930 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,845	$1.42	14d	6	1.10mi
4252 Ash Grove Dr NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,100	$1.55	14d	1	1.12mi
1415 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 21 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,225	$1.44	14d	1	1.13mi
3864 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	835	$1,135	$1.36	14d	7	1.14mi
2500 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	771	$1,350	$1.75	14d	11	1.15mi
2500 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 35 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	890	$1,295	$1.46	43d	1	1.15mi
2489 Coral Ave NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	817	$1,301	$1.59	14d	11	1.25mi
4712 Silverton Rd NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,495	$1.57	14d	5	1.28mi
4840 Cheryl Lynn Way NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	756	$1,100	$1.46	14d	2	1.31mi
3695 D St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,650	$1.59	43d	3	1.32mi
3739 Beverly Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	838	$1,275	$1.52	21d	2	1.40mi
3563 Silver Park Pl NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	828	$1,080	$1.30	43d	1	1.41mi
2800 Fisher Rd NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	856	$1,270	$1.48	21d	2	1.44mi
3654 47th Ave NE Unit 3654-D Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	43d	1	1.46mi
102 Greencrest St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,918	$2.10	14d	25	1.47mi
435 Fountain Valley Way NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	939	$1,559	$1.66	21d	5	1.48mi
4470 Conser Way NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	925	$1,395	$1.51	14d	3	1.50mi
3880 Auburn Rd NE Unit 3896 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Back on market: NO fault of seller. Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a desirable 55+ community. This home sits on a spacious lot with a fully fenced backyard, covered front porch, covered rear deck, carport with built-in storage, and an extra shed. Inside, the dining room features a beautiful china hutch and dimmable lighting. An additional family room adds even more living space. Lot rent is $995/mo and includes water, sewer, and trash. Community amenities include a pool, kitchen, TV room, meeting room, and sauna. Sold AS-IS. It passed appraisal with previous buyer.

2. 2026-04-25
   status Active 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Back on market: NO fault of seller. Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a desirable 55+ community. This home sits on a spacious lot with a fully fenced backyard, covered front porch, covered rear deck, carport with built-in storage, and an extra shed. Inside, the dining room features a beautiful china hutch and dimmable lighting. An additional family room adds even more living space. Lot rent is $995/mo and includes water, sewer, and trash. Community amenities include a pool, kitchen, TV room, meeting room, and sauna. Sold AS-IS. It passed appraisal with previous buyer.

3. 2026-03-12
   historical
4. 2026-03-10
   status Pending 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Back on market: NO fault of seller. Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a desirable 55+ community. This home sits on a spacious lot with a fully fenced backyard, covered front porch, covered rear deck, carport with built-in storage, and an extra shed. Inside, the dining room features a beautiful china hutch and dimmable lighting. An additional family room adds even more living space. Lot rent is $995/mo and includes water, sewer, and trash. Community amenities include a pool, kitchen, TV room, meeting room, and sauna. Sold AS-IS. It passed appraisal with previous buyer.

5. 2026-01-04
   price $29,900
6. 2025-11-29
   status Active
7. 2025-11-24
   historical Active under Contract
8. 2025-11-17
   listed $29,900 Active 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Back on market: NO fault of seller. Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a desirable 55+ community. This home sits on a spacious lot with a fully fenced backyard, covered front porch, covered rear deck, carport with built-in storage, and an extra shed. Inside, the dining room features a beautiful china hutch and dimmable lighting. An additional family room adds even more living space. Lot rent is $995/mo and includes water, sewer, and trash. Community amenities include a pool, kitchen, TV room, meeting room, and sauna. Sold AS-IS. It passed appraisal with previous buyer.

9. 2025-11-17
   listed $39,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Back on market: NO fault of seller. Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a desirable 55+ community. This home sits on a spacious lot with a fully fenced backyard, covered front porch, covered rear deck, carport with built-in storage, and an extra shed. Inside, the dining room features a beautiful china hutch and dimmable lighting. An additional family room adds even more living space. Lot rent is $995/mo and includes water, sewer, and trash. Community amenities include a pool, kitchen, TV room, meeting room, and sauna. Sold AS-IS. It passed appraisal with previous buyer.

10. 2013-04-22
    historical
11. 2013-04-19
    soldstatus $10,000 Sold
12. 2013-04-13
    status Pending
13. 2013-04-06
    historical Active under Contract
14. 2013-04-01
    price $10,000
15. 2013-03-29
    price $12,000 Active
16. 2013-03-29
    status Active
17. 2013-03-20
    historical Active under Contract
18. 2012-11-23
    status Active
19. 2012-11-23
    historical
20. 2012-10-11
    price $13,500
21. 2012-10-10
    status Active
22. 2012-09-29
    historical Active under Contract
23. 2012-09-10
    price $10,900
24. 2012-06-22
    listed $13,900 Active
25. 2011-09-10
    historical
26. 2011-06-15
    listed $21,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $454 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $454 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$454
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $12,153
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,917
• After-tax cash flow: $8,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Four Corners

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #2680

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute C+ Cost of living B+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Four Corners, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 57,574
• Household income: $60,422
• Rent vs Own: 57.2% rent · 42.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3089.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 19% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -548.17%
• Current HPI: 335.8199
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.70%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+36.5% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2026-03-10 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $29,900 WVMLS
• 2025-11-29 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2025-11-24 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $39,900 WVMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $29,900 RMLS
• 2013-04-22 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2013-04-19 Sold (MLS) $10,000 WVMLS
• 2013-04-13 Pending — WVMLS
• 2013-04-06 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2013-04-01 Price Changed $10,000 WVMLS
• 2013-03-29 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2013-03-29 Price Changed $12,000 WVMLS
• 2013-03-20 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2012-11-23 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2012-11-23 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2012-10-11 Price Changed $13,500 WVMLS
• 2012-10-10 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2012-09-29 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2012-09-10 Price Changed $10,900 WVMLS
• 2012-06-22 Listed $13,900 WVMLS
• 2011-09-10 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2011-06-15 Listed $21,900 WVMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $454 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.