11982 Noble Chase Path · Dade City, FL 33525

$330,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,435 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,200 sqft lot 2-car garage $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 11982 NOBLE CHASE PATH DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 348990, the square foot and stories are 2453, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 5 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• New home community
• Easy access to sr-52
• Easy access to i-75

Tags

• NEW HOME COMMUNITY
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS
• EASY ACCESS TO SR-52
• EASY ACCESS TO I-75
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLANS
• MODERN INTERIOR FINISHES

🏗️ New construction. The $330,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $370,505.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-575 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pasco Elementary School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 586 students, 89% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 894 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,635/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,515 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.65%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,505
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -10.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12041 Fallow Down Dr	0.08mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+7%)	0mo	$354,990	$136	84
12014 Fallow Down Dr	0.08mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+7%)	1mo	$369,990	$142	84
12022 Noble Chase Path	0.04mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	1mo	$329,990	$146	78
12013 Fallow Down Dr	0.06mi	5/3.0	2,077 (-15%)	0mo	$327,990	$158	73
12090 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,589 (+6%)	18mo	$425,990	$165	51
12152 Stirrup Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,207 (-9%)	18mo	$375,000	$170	43
12239 Stirrup Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,696 (+11%)	14mo	$399,900	$148	41
38408 Palomino Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,701 (+11%)	17mo	$399,900	$148	40
12139 Stirrup Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,711 (+11%)	16mo	$419,900	$155	40
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,095 (-14%)	17mo	$365,638	$175	40
12183 Stirrup Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,696 (+11%)	17mo	$399,900	$148	39
12195 Stirrup Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,711 (+11%)	17mo	$399,900	$148	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-96,489
• Equity at exit: $55,244

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-130,535
• Equity at exit: $32,035

Cash invested: $103,741 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 93 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 93.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $326,000 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 39 d
• This list price: 54% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 894
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$463 /mo · $5,558/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,363

Max offer price $287,344

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-319	-5% $-447	+0% $-575	+5% $-703	+10% $-831
Rent	-10% $-783	-5% $-679	+0% $-575	+5% $-471	+10% $-367
Rate	-1.0pp $-388	-0.5pp $-480	base $-575	+0.5pp $-671	+1.0pp $-768

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,626
• Closing costs: $11,115
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11877 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,100	$1.12	18d	1	0.13mi
11851 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	21d	1	0.16mi
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2095	$2,700	$1.29	48d	1	0.34mi
12195 Stirrup Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$2,700	$1.00	73d	1	0.47mi
38459 Colwell Ct Dade City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–4.0	1988	$2,388	$1.20	7d	8	0.55mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community directions available
• Financial info: CDD appliesLease restrictions applyTotal monthly HOA fees shown as $96 (total annual $1,152)Home warranty included
• HOA & community: HOA: KAI (monthly fee $96)Association amenities include a poolAssociation approval requiredPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo levelsNew constructionProperty faces westUnder construction (projected completion: 2026-10-20)
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilder: D.R. HortonBuilder model: Robie IIPermit number 20250121Builder license CBC039052Estimated building area ~2885 sq ft
• Exterior features: Paved road accessCommunity poolCommunity park

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor planBlindsDouble-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry roomWasherDryerIrrigation equipment

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   price $330,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $329,990 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $329,990 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $329,990 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $329,990 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   pricedays on market $329,990 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $339,990 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $339,990 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $339,990 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $339,990 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    pricedays on market $339,990 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $348,990 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $348,990 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $348,990 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $348,990 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $348,990 Active 59 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $348,990 Active 58 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $348,990 Active 57 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $348,990 Active 55 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $348,990 Active 54 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $348,990 Active 53 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $348,990 Active 52 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $348,990 Active 51 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $348,990 Active 49 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $348,990 Active 48 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $348,990 Active 47 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $348,990 Active 46 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $348,990 Active 45 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $348,990 Active 44 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $348,990 Active 43 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $348,990 Active 42 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $348,990 Active 41 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $348,990 Active 40 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $348,990 Active 39 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $348,990 Active 38 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $348,990 Active 36 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $348,990 Active 34 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $348,990 Active 33 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $348,990 Active 30 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $348,990 Active 29 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $348,990 Active 28 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $348,990 Active 27 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $348,990 Active 25 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $348,990 Active 21 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $348,990 Active 20 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $348,990 Active 19 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $348,990 Active 16 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $348,990 Active 15 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $348,990 Active 14 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,754
• − Property taxes: −$5,558
• − Insurance: −$1,853
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,530
• − Management: −$2,530
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$10,778
• Taxable loss: −$13,532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,248
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 17 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained front yard can increase the home's appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters alike. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pasco Elementary School F FL #1,896/2,144 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle Centennial Middle School F FL #368/571 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

---

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community directions available
• Financial info: CDD appliesLease restrictions applyTotal monthly HOA fees shown as $96 (total annual $1,152)Home warranty included
• HOA & community: HOA: KAI (monthly fee $96)Association amenities include a poolAssociation approval requiredPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo levelsNew constructionProperty faces westUnder construction (projected completion: 2026-10-20)
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilder: D.R. HortonBuilder model: Robie IIPermit number 20250121Builder license CBC039052Estimated building area ~2885 sq ft
• Exterior features: Paved road accessCommunity poolCommunity park

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor planBlindsDouble-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry roomWasherDryerIrrigation equipment

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $348,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Listed $348,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid