3104 Caughey Rd · Erie, PA 16506

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1940 0.37 ac lot Est $301k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3104 Caughey Road, located in West Millcreek, walking distance to McDowell Intermediate and High schools. This 1884 SF Brick home has 4 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, large living room with a fireplace, a detached 2-car garage and a 2-car carport. Tons of storage in the full basement. Large backyard on a large lot with wrap around driveway. Close to Wegmans and Walmart. 1 mile to Erie International airport, and 3.5 miles to Presque Isle State Park.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Wrap around driveway
• Detached garage

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE BACKYARD
• WRAP AROUND DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage (part of 4 total parking spaces); Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Brick construction; Asphalt roof; R-1 zoning
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Full basement
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $225k implies a 301% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $213,602 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.49%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2828 Carter Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,791 (-5%)	4mo	$155,000	$87	74
3008 Homestead Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,782 (-5%)	12mo	$331,000	$186	70
3412 W 41st St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,832 (-3%)	3mo	$230,000	$126	63
3104 Caton St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,881 (-0%)	7mo	$275,000	$146	62
2817 Loveland Ave	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,992 (+6%)	14mo	$324,900	$163	61
3337 W 41st St	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,872 (-1%)	2mo	$296,500	$158	57
3765 Gable Ct	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,852 (-2%)	16mo	$345,000	$186	56
3243 W 39th St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+1%)	15mo	$308,000	$162	50
3749 Gable Ct	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,760 (-7%)	9mo	$349,900	$199	50
4101 Ridgewood Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,970 (+5%)	16mo	$315,000	$160	50
3930 Holly Rue Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,016 (+7%)	13mo	$285,000	$141	45
3105 Broadlawn Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,652 (-12%)	10mo	$265,000	$160	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-28,095
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-13,602
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16506

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,136 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,396/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,970

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $194	+0% $131	+5% $67	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-38	-5% $46	+0% $131	+5% $215	+10% $300
Rate	-1.0pp $244	-0.5pp $188	base $131	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2412 Powell Ave Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	44d	1	0.54mi
2857 Willowood Dr Unit 2901 Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	44d	1	1.10mi
4500 Hammocks Dr Erie, PA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1312	$3,270	$2.49	44d	7	1.39mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 542401 Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1327	$2,160	$1.63	44d	1	1.40mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536404 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,290	$1.62	44d	1	1.40mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536204 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,275	$1.61	44d	1	1.40mi
3630 W 10th St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $225,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   remarks 457-char remark
4. 2026-06-07
   listed $225,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,396 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$80/yr (+$7/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,396
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$513
• After-tax cash flow: $2,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,070
• Household income: $81,060
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.21%
• Current HPI: 228.7506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+301.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $225,000 GEBOR
• 1989-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $56,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,396 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.