14249 Lost Meadow Ln · Houston, TX 77079

$122,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,632 sqft · Townhouse public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1976 1,629 sqft lot $445/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to own one of the largest units in this Memorial-area townhome community. This spacious two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths, a gameroom, and generous living areas with a brick fireplace. An ensuite bedroom on the main level offers flexibility and could serve as a secondary primary suite, ideal for guests or multigenerational living. Enjoy open green space in front and a private back patio, providing privacy and a more open feel than typical townhome living. Ideal layout with strong value-add potential—bring your decorating vision and remodel to your taste. Updated comps in the community support upside. Convenient access to major freeways, shopping, and dini

Key facts

• Ensuite bedroom
• Brick fireplace
• Open green space

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• GAMEROOM
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• ENSUITE BEDROOM
• PRIVATE BACK PATIO
• OPEN GREEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $122k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thornwood El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 408 students, 88% FRL); Spring Forest Middle (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 962 students, 56% FRL); Stratford H S (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,272 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,472
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14213 Lost Meadow Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,632 (0%)	6mo	$230,000	$87	92
14357 Still Meadow Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,632 (0%)	16mo	$318,000	$121	76
14120 Misty Meadow Ln	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,482 (-6%)	12mo	$295,000	$119	75
14329 Lost Meadow Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,376 (-10%)	13mo	$285,000	$120	70
14228 Misty Meadow Ln	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,300 (-13%)	7mo	$279,500	$122	69
14123 Misty Meadow Ln	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,248 (-15%)	6mo	$284,900	$127	60
14171 Misty Meadow Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,250 (-14%)	3mo	$239,000	$106	60
1208 Country Place Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,250 (-14%)	8mo	$279,000	$124	60
1352 Country Place Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,256 (-14%)	15mo	$249,900	$111	53
14254 Misty Meadow Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,250 (-14%)	22mo	$285,000	$127	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,264
• Equity at exit: $18,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $7,600
• Equity at exit: $10,548

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77079

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,115 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$152 /mo · $1,830/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$445
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $425	+0% $383	+5% $341	+10% $299
Rent	-10% $216	-5% $300	+0% $383	+5% $467	+10% $550
Rate	-1.0pp $445	-0.5pp $414	base $383	+0.5pp $351	+1.0pp $319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Country Place Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1886	$1,550	$0.82	44d	1	0.28mi
781 Country Place Dr Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	2264	$1,800	$0.80	5d	6	0.77mi
14736 Perthshire Rd Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2464	$2,300	$0.93	0d	1	1.01mi
14814 Perthshire Rd Houston, TX	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1381	$2,245	$1.63	0d	79	1.08mi
14800 Memorial Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1368	$3,966	$2.90	11d	21	1.13mi
14800 Memorial Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1371	$3,885	$2.83	0d	13	1.13mi
881 N Eldridge Pkwy Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1766	$2,483	$1.41	44d	1	1.30mi
881 N Eldridge Pkwy Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1766	$2,483	$1.41	21d	1	1.30mi
15100 Turkey Creek Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,648	$1.50	25d	1	1.41mi
11019 Cane Oak Way Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1980	$2,650	$1.34	44d	1	1.41mi
875 N Eldridge Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1197	$2,688	$2.25	0d	29	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $445 · $5,340/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-10
   listed $122,000 Active
4. 2013-03-27
   soldstatus
5. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$1,830
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − HOA: −$5,340
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $3,161
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$759
• After-tax cash flow: $3,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring Branch ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841100
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,311
• Composite: 40.88/100
• National rank: #3624
• State rank: #215 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,276
• Household income: $101,995
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -316.55%
• Current HPI: 286.7958
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $122,000 HARMLS
• 2013-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,294 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.