65 Downing Dr · Fruit Cove, FL 32259

$268,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,289 sqft · Land · 82 Days on market

Built 2026 $208/sqft · at area comps Est $257k · at est. $171/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOT 115 -The Davy kitchen takes center stage in the sleek, modern floorplan, opening directly into the home with an island and breakfast bar that overlooks the dining and living areas. This open-concept design creates a spacious, connected area ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. Thoughtfully designed for convenience, the first floor includes both laundry and powder rooms. Upstairs, the bedrooms offer privacy, with the owner's suite featuring an ensuite bath and located across from two additional bedrooms. These extra rooms are perfect for growing families, hosting guests, or welcoming back college students. Located in the master-planned RiverTown community along the scenic St. Johns River, residents enjoy a lifestyle focused on fitness, fun, and connection. Amenities include neighborhood parks with lake and preserve views, miles of nature trails, and plenty of opportunities to meet neighbors, stay active, and enjoy the year-round sunshine of Northeast Florida.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• First floor laundry
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• FIRST FLOOR POWDER ROOMS
• OWNER'S SUITE
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARKS
• NATURE TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.9% in Fruit Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#469 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hickory Creek Elementary School (math 84% / reading 80%, grade A+, #79 of 2,144 statewide, top 4%, 793 students, 11% FRL); Switzerland Point Middle School (math 80% / reading 72%, grade A, #34 of 571 statewide, top 6%, 1,430 students, 5% FRL); Bartram Trail High School (math 68% / reading 75%, grade B+, #49 of 667 statewide, top 8%, 2,493 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 766 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $252,390 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.53%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,250
• List price: $268,500
• Delta: 4.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-44,812
• Equity at exit: $40,034

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-59,736
• Equity at exit: $23,215

Cash invested: $75,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32259

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 766
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,549 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,408
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,724/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$171
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,428

Max offer price $268,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $172	+0% $96	+5% $20	+10% $-56
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-5	+0% $96	+5% $196	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $164	base $96	+0.5pp $26	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,125
• Closing costs: $8,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 Vicksburg Dr Saint Johns, FL	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,600	$1.60	25d	1	1.16mi
84 Vicksburg Dr Saint Johns, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$2,396	$1.47	25d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $171 · $2,052/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $268,500 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $268,500 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $268,500 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $268,500 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $268,500 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $268,500 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $268,500 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    status $269,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $269,000 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    LOT 115 -The Davy kitchen takes center stage in the sleek, modern floorplan, opening directly into the home with an island and breakfast bar that overlooks the dining and living areas. This open-concept design creates a spacious, connected area ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. Thoughtfully designed for convenience, the first floor includes both laundry and powder rooms. Upstairs, the bedrooms offer privacy, with the owner's suite featuring an ensuite bath and located across from two additional bedrooms. These extra rooms are perfect for growing families, hosting guests, or welcoming back college students. Located in the master-planned RiverTown community along the scenic St. Johns River, residents enjoy a lifestyle focused on fitness, fun, and connection. Amenities include neighborhood parks with lake and preserve views, miles of nature trails, and plenty of opportunities to meet neighbors, stay active, and enjoy the year-round sunshine of Northeast Florida.

15. 2026-03-23
    listed $271,990 Active 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    LOT 115 -The Davy kitchen takes center stage in the sleek, modern floorplan, opening directly into the home with an island and breakfast bar that overlooks the dining and living areas. This open-concept design creates a spacious, connected area ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. Thoughtfully designed for convenience, the first floor includes both laundry and powder rooms. Upstairs, the bedrooms offer privacy, with the owner's suite featuring an ensuite bath and located across from two additional bedrooms. These extra rooms are perfect for growing families, hosting guests, or welcoming back college students. Located in the master-planned RiverTown community along the scenic St. Johns River, residents enjoy a lifestyle focused on fitness, fun, and connection. Amenities include neighborhood parks with lake and preserve views, miles of nature trails, and plenty of opportunities to meet neighbors, stay active, and enjoy the year-round sunshine of Northeast Florida.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,724 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,724 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,040
• − Property taxes: −$2,724
• − Insurance: −$1,342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,447
• − Management: −$2,447
• − HOA: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$7,811
• Taxable loss: −$3,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$787
• After-tax cash flow: $1,934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fruit Cove

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #8490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 75,016
• Household income: $150,736
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 727.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.54%
• Current HPI: 261.2552
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $269,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $271,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,724 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.