438 Dubai Ave · San Marcos, TX 78656

$236,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $252k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern design. On the first floor, a flexible open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. On the second floor, three secondary bedrooms surround a versatile loft for convenient shared living.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Versatile loft
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $239,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property (Morrow plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1867

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Morrow plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-391/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,198 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,045
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
456 Paris St	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,867 (0%)	0mo	$231,999	$124	93
543 Paris St	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-1%)	2mo	$238,990	$129	85
559 Paris St	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-1%)	2mo	$239,990	$130	84
534 Paris St	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-9%)	2mo	$229,990	$135	74
429 Paris St	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-11%)	1mo	$222,990	$134	74
542 Paris St	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-9%)	1mo	$225,990	$132	74
558 Paris St	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-9%)	1mo	$226,990	$133	72
550 Paris St	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-11%)	2mo	$230,990	$139	68
501 Paris St	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	2mo	$215,990	$135	66
522 Paris St	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	2mo	$223,990	$140	65
515 Paris St	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	2mo	$220,990	$138	64
205 E Lima Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	2mo	$215,990	$135	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-26,109
• Equity at exit: $56,928

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-29,264
• Equity at exit: $59,539

Cash invested: $66,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78656

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,555/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,073

Max offer price $232,284

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $49	+0% $-33	+5% $-114	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-193	-5% $-113	+0% $-33	+5% $48	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $28	base $-33	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,250
• Closing costs: $7,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
531 Paris St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,950	$1.17	0d	1	0.17mi
205 E Lima Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,899	$1.12	0d	1	0.26mi
351 Cobb Branch Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1616	$1,950	$1.21	0d	4	0.74mi
275 Aplite Pass Maxwell, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,420	$1.40	0d	1	0.76mi
283 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,609	$1.12	18d	1	0.92mi
312 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	45d	1	0.93mi
253 Fairlawn Way Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1919	$2,235	$1.16	25d	1	0.94mi
171 Haywood Mnr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,850	$1.21	6d	1	1.01mi
328 Mica Trl Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	45d	1	1.02mi
566 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1837	$1,850	$1.01	18d	1	1.04mi
300 Geode Gln Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1712	$1,795	$1.05	45d	1	1.04mi
192 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1610	$1,699	$1.06	45d	1	1.06mi
147 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,441	$0.99	45d	1	1.07mi
230 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	19d	1	1.07mi
543 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,695	$1.04	23d	1	1.07mi
124 Hidden Branch Cv Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,800	$1.06	0d	1	1.09mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	6d	1	1.13mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	19d	1	1.13mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	25d	1	1.13mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,850	$1.09	14d	1	1.14mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,850	$1.09	45d	1	1.14mi
170 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	2122	$1,795	$0.85	19d	1	1.15mi
170 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	3.0	2122	$1,795	$0.85	6d	1	1.15mi
342 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	2072	$1,975	$0.95	45d	1	1.18mi
444 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1830	$1,850	$1.01	6d	1	1.21mi
251 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,650	$1.06	19d	1	1.22mi
170 Bright Flora Ln Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	2312	$1,950	$0.84	45d	1	1.23mi
274 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,795	$1.22	45d	1	1.24mi
296 Agate Cliff Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,675	$1.18	0d	1	1.25mi
151 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,895	$1.06	6d	1	1.25mi
293 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,825	$1.07	6d	1	1.25mi
195 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,900	$1.07	6d	1	1.26mi
211 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,840	$1.03	19d	1	1.27mi
170 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.29mi
839 Gully St Maxwell, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1105	$1,832	$1.66	0d	306	1.38mi
1413 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	4.0	3.0	1952	$2,500	$1.28	45d	1	1.41mi
214 Kyanite Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,650	$1.07	45d	1	1.41mi
188 Thistle Ln Maxwell, TX	5.0	3.0	2618	$3,200	$1.22	0d	1	1.43mi
704 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1904	$1,822	$0.96	0d	19	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $236,999 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $236,999 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $236,999 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,999 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,999 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,999 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,999 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,999 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 381-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $239,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,555
• − Insurance: −$1,185
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − Depreciation: −$6,895
• Taxable loss: −$4,428
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,063
• After-tax cash flow: $672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern two-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good rehab level of cosmetic and requires minimal repairs or maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, updating the flooring in the bathrooms, upgrading the kitchen appliances, and adding smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can attract more buyers and renters
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,847
• Household income: $81,346
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 89.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 21% White 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B