315 Dunham Ave · St. Joseph, MI 49085

$239,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 1951 0.34 ac lot $195/sqft · 9% below area Est $265k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom home in the heart of a desirable beach town, is just minutes from the shoreline. This cozy residence offers a bright, open living space filled with natural light and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, making it ideal for everyday living or weekend getaways. Step outside to a rare oversized backyard--perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Plenty of space for outdoor dining, fire pits, or even a pool. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation home, or investment property, this home delivers location, flexibility, and outdoor space that's hard to find near the beach. Close to local shops, restaurants, and coastal attractions, this property combines relaxed beach living with everyday convenience. Property also has two large sheds on the property for ample storage.

Key facts

• Outdoor dining
• Coastal attractions
• Large sheds

Tags

• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR DINING
• LARGE SHEDS
• COASTAL ATTRACTIONS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas connected; Natural gas water heater
• Home design: Ranch-style single family residence; One-story layout; Built in 1951; Shingle roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built in 1951; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.34 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (on main level); Bedroom 2 (on main level); Bedroom 3 (on main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Cooling system present
• Interior features: Garage door opener; Eat-in kitchen; Replacement windows; Utility room; Family room; Living room; Primary bedroom; Two additional bedrooms; Bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph Public Schools (suburban): math 53% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #47 of 540 in MI (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $240k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,817 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.63%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,923
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -9.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2516 S State St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,202 (-2%)	1mo	$315,000	$262	72
2811 Lakeshore Dr	0.18mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,240 (+1%)	13mo	$285,000	$230	72
705 Columbia Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (+2%)	0mo	$98,000	$78	68
312 S Veronica Ct	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,180 (-4%)	10mo	$225,000	$191	68
2520 S State St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,236 (+0%)	13mo	$229,000	$185	61
2626 Niles Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-2%)	14mo	$199,900	$167	58
2627 Botham Ct	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,109 (-10%)	16mo	$225,000	$203	49
2215 S Cleveland Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,360 (+11%)	13mo	$245,000	$180	45
221 N Sunnybank Rd	0.24mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,411 (+15%)	18mo	$326,000	$231	42
2256 Lynn Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-9%)	10mo	$235,000	$210	41
2610 Willa Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,085 (-12%)	12mo	$275,000	$253	32
2701 Willa Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (+15%)	13mo	$281,250	$200	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-50,437
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-73,609
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49085

• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,458/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,084

Max offer price $223,766

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 900-char remark

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom home in the heart of a desirable beach town, is just minutes from the shoreline. This cozy residence offers a bright, open living space filled with natural light and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, making it ideal for everyday living or weekend getaways. Step outside to a rare oversized backyard--perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Plenty of space for outdoor dining, fire pits, or even a pool. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation home, or investment property, this home delivers location, flexibility, and outdoor space that's hard to find near the beach. Close to local shops, restaurants, and coastal attractions, this property combines relaxed beach living with everyday convenience. Property also has two large sheds on the property for ample storage.

2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 900-char remark

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom home in the heart of a desirable beach town, is just minutes from the shoreline. This cozy residence offers a bright, open living space filled with natural light and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, making it ideal for everyday living or weekend getaways. Step outside to a rare oversized backyard--perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Plenty of space for outdoor dining, fire pits, or even a pool. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation home, or investment property, this home delivers location, flexibility, and outdoor space that's hard to find near the beach. Close to local shops, restaurants, and coastal attractions, this property combines relaxed beach living with everyday convenience. Property also has two large sheds on the property for ample storage.

3. 2026-05-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom home in the heart of a desirable beach town, is just minutes from the shoreline. This cozy residence offers a bright, open living space filled with natural light and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, making it ideal for everyday living or weekend getaways. Step outside to a rare oversized backyard--perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Plenty of space for outdoor dining, fire pits, or even a pool. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation home, or investment property, this home delivers location, flexibility, and outdoor space that's hard to find near the beach. Close to local shops, restaurants, and coastal attractions, this property combines relaxed beach living with everyday convenience. Property also has two large sheds on the property for ample storage.

4. 2026-05-02
   listed $239,900 Active 900-char remark

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom home in the heart of a desirable beach town, is just minutes from the shoreline. This cozy residence offers a bright, open living space filled with natural light and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, making it ideal for everyday living or weekend getaways. Step outside to a rare oversized backyard--perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Plenty of space for outdoor dining, fire pits, or even a pool. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation home, or investment property, this home delivers location, flexibility, and outdoor space that's hard to find near the beach. Close to local shops, restaurants, and coastal attractions, this property combines relaxed beach living with everyday convenience. Property also has two large sheds on the property for ample storage.

5. 2026-05-02
   listed $239,900 Active 900-char remark

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom home in the heart of a desirable beach town, is just minutes from the shoreline. This cozy residence offers a bright, open living space filled with natural light and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, making it ideal for everyday living or weekend getaways. Step outside to a rare oversized backyard--perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Plenty of space for outdoor dining, fire pits, or even a pool. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation home, or investment property, this home delivers location, flexibility, and outdoor space that's hard to find near the beach. Close to local shops, restaurants, and coastal attractions, this property combines relaxed beach living with everyday convenience. Property also has two large sheds on the property for ample storage.

6. 2026-05-02
   listed $239,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom home in the heart of a desirable beach town, is just minutes from the shoreline. This cozy residence offers a bright, open living space filled with natural light and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, making it ideal for everyday living or weekend getaways. Step outside to a rare oversized backyard--perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Plenty of space for outdoor dining, fire pits, or even a pool. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation home, or investment property, this home delivers location, flexibility, and outdoor space that's hard to find near the beach. Close to local shops, restaurants, and coastal attractions, this property combines relaxed beach living with everyday convenience. Property also has two large sheds on the property for ample storage.

7. 2001-06-26
   soldstatus $85,000
8. 2001-06-26
   soldstatus $85,000
9. 2001-04-26
   listed $87,500
10. 2001-04-26
    listed $87,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,458 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,576 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: +$118/yr (+$10/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,458
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$5,235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2632850
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,232
• Composite: 50.87/100
• National rank: #1795
• State rank: #47 of 540 in MI

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MI
• County: Berrien County · 71,477 people
• Metro: Niles, MI
• Population (ZIP): 23,827
• Household income: $104,969
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 277.0

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -332.72%
• Current HPI: 207.2281
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Niles, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+174.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $239,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $239,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $239,900 REALCOMP
• 2001-06-26 Sold (MLS) $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2001-06-26 Sold (MLS) $85,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2001-04-26 Listed $87,500 REALCOMP
• 2001-04-26 Listed $87,500 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,458 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.